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starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
 Posted - 03/28/2008 : 18:28:41
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I recently made a very hard decision. What should I do with my regular PM allowance? I decided to bet my future on gold. While many cases can be made for silver, and I still see it moving to $34 by the end of 2009, there is simply too much of it (I no longer believe the hype). It also has a built-in top, as mining can ALWAYS meet demand at higher price levels. In addition, think about how many people you know who have at least a small hoard of silver. Now, think about how many people you know that hold gold beyond the average 14-18k jewelry collection. There is a reason that the central banks hold gold and not silver. They aren't stupid; gold IS money, and it will easily hit $1600 by 2010. Sure, there will still be plenty of people making big money playing silver's volatility, but the real money is going to flow into gold. Cash may still be king, but gold is waiting silently in the wings to take its rightful place on the throne.
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2008 : 18:36:45
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| I think silver will be better in the long term percentage-wise than gold for all of the reasons people have stated here already. If you think silver will double in price by the end of 2009, which quite a few people are saying, it wouldn't make much sense to move out of silver. Silver has a lot more industrial uses than gold and will probably be in higher demand outside the commodities market, so despite the ample supply, the demand is right there with it. I'm sinking most of my money into silver right now both because of the apparent demand but also because of the ease of buying and selling it (at least on eBay, where I've been getting most of my 90 percent coins). My advice would be just to stay in silver and to keep what you have right now, even if just partially, so that if it does go up, you'll at least be half right. |
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Edited by - Nickelless on 03/28/2008 18:40:17 |
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starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2008 : 18:55:45
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| I liquidated only a small percentage of my silver, and I used that money to "trade-up" in order to avoid taxation. I still like the look of my slabbed coins, ASEs, Canadian Maples, etc., but I'm not going to bet my future on a metal that has clearly been demonetized. I see a future of stagflation and war, so industrial/consumer demand doesn't fit into my equation. I'm not going to worry about any missed opportunities with silver. If (big if) industrial demand ever goes into overdrive, don't worry about me; I've got my Cu as a hedge. |
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misteroman
Administrator
USA
2565 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2008 : 22:29:36
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| I think silver would be better if only the reason of more people can afford to go buy $50-$100 of recognized silver.Where as in gold you have to spend at least $100 and only get a tiny coin. |
Buying CU cents!!!! Paying 1.2 unlimited amounts wanted. Can pick up if near Ohio area. |
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n/a
deleted
21 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 08:27:09
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Starwars,
Didnt you just say silver to $34 by 2009?
and gold to $1600 by 2010?
so silver doubles by 2009 yet gold doesnt double by 2010? |
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n/a
deleted
21 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 08:28:12
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Starwars,
Didnt you just say silver to $34 by 2009?
and gold to $1600 by 2010?
so silver doubles by 2009 yet gold doesnt double by 2010? |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2555 Posts |
 Posted - 03/29/2008 : 09:09:04
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If anything bad happens, I like how silver will feed my family for a week. With gold, what am I going to do? Food will go bad if there is no refridgerator.
I like both gold and silver, I'm thinking though about survival more than general investing. So I own a little more in silver than in gold.
But whatever floats your boat man.
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"99% of all lawyers give the rest of them a bad name" 
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 09:20:03
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| I prefer silver because of what another posted mentioned. Back in 1980, there was 2 billion ounces of gold and now it's about the same. For silver, it was 2.2 billion ounces and is way down from that because of use in different industrial applications. One site I viewed said that we are consuming so much silver right now that we could be out in 10 years. I dont know if I believe that necessarily, but it is true that silver is being consumed at a large rate and there is only a fixed amount. Simple supply and demand economics will tell you that the price of silver will go out up as the supply dwindels and the demand continues to increase. Where will it go? I dont know but if TSHTF, I would rather have a pile of silver coins instead of gold coins or federal reserve notes for ease of transactions and because of the bigger potential upside. |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 09:20:43
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| Many are saying that there is a huge physical silver shortage out there now because so much of it has been used and never recovered from its industrial applications. I'm not 100% convinced about that but it is possible. Gold is king of the monetary metals but most of it ever mined is still around today. Silver is mined closer to the surface than gold so as they dig deeper less is usually found. I guess that I just like betting on silver's industrial value along with its monetary value...........Kind of like the best of both worlds...............In some ways like copper. |
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Think positive. |
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Ant
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
894 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 13:54:12
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I am holding off on gold until this last bit of volatility calms down. Until very recently, we bought it and figureed that dollar cost averaging would work out in our favor in the long run. But here lately things have been sort of nutty. I was lucky to catch that last little dip.
Plenty of goldbugs are saying that gold will hit $3000. Enh, maybe, if helped along by devaluation of the dollar. I just don't think there's enough industrial demand for gold, like there is with platinum. But if I wanted to get into the market for a little gold, I would go ahead and buy. In the long run, at smaller investments, there's little difference between entering at $950/oz. and $1050/oz. Of course, gold could tank tomorrow. In that case, we'll all be kind of bummed, unless we bought it at $300/oz.
I have a couple of little 2.5 Johnson Matthey "bars". Hee, really more like flakes! I got them when I spent my PM allowance on bigger pieces but had something left burning a hole in my pocket. 
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Lovely dimes, the liveliest coin, the one that really jingles. --Truman Capote
Coins are the metallic footprints of the history of nations. --William H. Woodin |
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Ant
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
894 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 14:15:27
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quote:
Originally posted by Ant
I have a couple of little 2.5 Johnson Matthey "bars". Hee, really more like flakes!
Er, just to clarify, I mean 2.5 *grams*.  |
Lovely dimes, the liveliest coin, the one that really jingles. --Truman Capote
Coins are the metallic footprints of the history of nations. --William H. Woodin |
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 15:49:00
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quote:
Originally posted by Ant
Of course, gold could tank tomorrow. In that case, we'll all be kind of bummed, unless we bought it at $300/oz.
I think those of us that bought it at 300-400 would be kind of bummed too.
I still like both gold and silver, but at current price levels I like silver more. Of course copper at half price is also still a favorite. |
If your percentages are low.. just sort more. If your percentages are high.. just sort more.
Now selling Copper pennies. 1.6x plus shipping. Limited amounts available. |
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lilyrdape
Penny Pincher Member
USA
152 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 16:02:35
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i perfer silver over gold at current prices.
of course as hoard says copper at half price is still my favorite. |
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wolvesdad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2164 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 17:50:53
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1/4 in gold for ease of storage and transportation;
2/4 in silver because...it is just so awesome;
and 1/4 or more in Copper because it is just so cheap!
I love math! |
"May your percentages ever increase!" |
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n/a
deleted
192 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 18:49:38
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I follow the formula presented above by wolvesdad.
It matters little what the exact numbers are.
I Agree with the basic idea behind each of his three fractions.
Gold (a minority percentage) because it is dense and recognizable and can be used in a "fight or flight" panic.
Silver in a majority percentage because it has the greatest upside potential.
Copper / Nickel / Platinum / Palladium / paper money / diamonds / objects of extreme intrinsic value, etc. in a minority percentage as a hedge against gold and silver. |
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The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
John Maynard Keynes,
English economist (1883 - 1946)
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n/a
deleted
192 Posts |
Posted - 03/29/2008 : 18:55:06
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starwarsgeek171 said at the top of this thread,
"gold IS money"
May I politely remind him that,
Judas sold Jesus for 30 pieces of SILVER.
and that The Coinage act of 1792 set the US Dollar at one "piece" of SILVER.
and that the United Kingdom's currency is the Pound STERLING.
and on and on and on ...
For your information:
RHODIUM is Money!!
everything else is an "also ran". |
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The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
John Maynard Keynes,
English economist (1883 - 1946)
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starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2008 : 09:21:10
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| I stand by my decision. It is based on a long term buying and holding strategy: The accumulation and protection of real wealth over time. Once again, don't believe the hype, there will NEVER be a shortage of silver; it WILL go down to $5 again after the peak in 2010-2011 (hope you're able to sell right on time). Finally, I'm not sure any of you ever consider that you may actually need to leave your homes (radiation, disease, etc.). Are you planning on loading up your silver hoard into the station wagon, or worse yet, carting it in a backpack through the woods? Gold can be secured and transported much easier than silver (yet another reason to prefer it). Buying gold is like buying stock in Credit Swiss, while buying silver is like buying stock in Ford. I'm not trying to start a fight; I'm simply trying to help others who may be unsure of which path to follow (others who may not believe the hype). |
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2008 : 09:38:08
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| Some good points starwarsgeek. I think the best way is a mix of the two, although I will stand by my belief that silver is currently undervalued and has a higher percentage upside potential. But if TSHTF, and the currency as we know it completely collapses, would you rather have silver or gold bullion/coins? Silver coins/bullion in my opinion would be more easily traded or bartered. I like wolvesdad formula for 25% gold, 50% silver, 25% copper. I think that's a good safe way to go, so that means I need to up my gold reserves. |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2008 : 09:50:16
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| Thanks, CoinHunter. I have no intention of purging (or completely discontinuing purchases of) the other metals. It is just that I've decided to focus on gold. |
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n/a
deleted
43 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2008 : 13:32:22
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It is fun to think about which metals to go after first.
I still stick by the value approach. At any time ask yourself, where can you get the better deal?
Another way to put it as someone noted before is...
Buy gold until you are priced out of it then buy silver,
Buy silver until you are priced out of it then buy copper!
Right now I am buying gold until it moves back beyond $1000 an ounce (or I reach my hoarding goal for it) then I will buy silver until it goes beyond $25 an ounce (or I reach my hoarding goal) and if that happens I'm abandoning hand sorting and getting myself a Ryedale and going crazy on the copper!
Having a set amount (a hoarding goal) for each metal not just a price limit is also important. You don't want too much in one particular metal.
I would like 10 ounces of Gold, 1000 ounces of Silver, and 3.3 TONS of copper (1 million copper pennies)! |
Edited by - n/a on 03/31/2008 13:34:01 |
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CoinHunter53562
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1805 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2008 : 13:39:18
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quote:
Thanks, CoinHunter. I have no intention of purging (or completely discontinuing purchases of) the other metals. It is just that I've decided to focus on gold.
No worries...everyone has their reasons for choosing the mix they do. I dont think anyone can really go wrong by buying PM's. As Robert Kiyosaki says "cash is trash" and "you cant go bankrupt by buying PM's". |
My hobby: collecting real money 1 copper cent or nickel at a time.
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starwarsgeek171
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
651 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2008 : 13:44:28
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| We can all agree on that, CoinHunter! |
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Saul Mine
Penny Collector Member
USA
343 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2008 : 12:39:47
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You need to examine your assumptions. Silver is not mined, it is a byproduct of mining other metals. A mine will not increase production unless it needs to increase its primary metal production.
As for deciding whether to buy gold or silver, that is a simple number: the gold/silver ratio. Right now it is about 52. Last month it dipped to 48. As DOW drops, the GS ratio rises. Two years ago it went to 98. A low ratio means silver is expensive relative to gold. A high ratio means silver is cheap. So when the ratio goes down you sell your silver and buy gold. When the ratio goes up you sell your gold and buy silver. Example: you buy one ounce of gold now, equivalent to 52 ounces of silver. If the ratio goes to 104 you sell the gold and buy 104 ounces of silver and you have 52 ounces free. Then when the ratio goes back to 52 you sell your 104 ounces of silver and buy two ounces of gold. It is the safest possible investment plan because you are always invested in hard metal. |
A penny sorted is a penny earned!
Please use tinyurl.com to post links. Long links make posts hard to read. |
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TenBears
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1021 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2008 : 13:10:04
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*****
As for deciding whether to buy gold or silver, that is a simple number: the gold/silver ratio. Right now it is about 52. Last month it dipped to 48. As DOW drops, the GS ratio rises. Two years ago it went to 98. A low ratio means silver is expensive relative to gold. A high ratio means silver is cheap. So when the ratio goes down you sell your silver and buy gold. When the ratio goes up you sell your gold and buy silver. Example: you buy one ounce of gold now, equivalent to 52 ounces of silver. If the ratio goes to 104 you sell the gold and buy 104 ounces of silver and you have 52 ounces free. Then when the ratio goes back to 52 you sell your 104 ounces of silver and buy two ounces of gold. It is the safest possible investment plan because you are always invested in hard metal.
*****
Very interesting Saul. Are you doing this? And what are some good guidelines? Should we buy gold right now with the current ratio or should we buy silver? Also, how much change in the ratio do you look for before you change one metal for the other? Is this investment strategy written anywhere so that I can go read more about it?
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"Rich," the Old Man said dreamily, "is not baying after what you can't have. Rich is having the time to do what you want to do. Rich is a little whiskey to drink and some food to eat and a roof over your head and a fish pole and a boat and a gun and a dollar for a box of shells. Rich is not owing any money to anybody, and not spending what you haven't got." Robert Ruark
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...-----still taunted
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knibloe
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1066 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2008 : 19:38:16
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| I am "buying" copper and silver now. The reason for that is not really complex. I can get both metals at bargin prices in circulated coinage if I apply a little of my own time and labor. Once I have achieved my goals for these two metals I will continue to search circulated coinage for them and sell the excess. The sales from these will go into gold purchases. I may at that time start to hoard nickels as well. They intrugue me, but I only have so much play money to work with at this time. |
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Silver Vs. Gold
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