| Author |
 Topic  |
|
|
fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
 Posted - 09/05/2010 : 14:54:37
|
I'm stealing (with permission I hope and with thanks) from Beauanderos silver thread.
Here's the premise.................
3/20/2012
Silver skyrocketed in 2011, after the COMEX default, reaching first $300 an ounce, then $500, before leveling off at $700 during the typically weak precious metals months of summer. With gold cresting at $6700 an ounce in November, the gold to silver ratio was nearing 8 to 1 as silver approached $900. Silver production had tapered off to a third of previous years, and pundits were predicting $1000 an ounce on the shortage. The dollar continued to plunge, breaking through support at 20, and it looked like there was no sight in end to the breathtaking plunge that had occured in the preceding nightmarish months as President Obama declared martial law and rescinded social security. Hyperinflation appeared to be the order of the day, and the Hundred Dollar Tree stores were near to bursting with customers eagerly stripping the shelves of the few remaining goods.
Somewhere along this path, PMs started upwards at a phenomenal rate. - So What's YOUR trigger? When do you start putting all liquid capital into PMs
|
 |
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 15:04:10
|
quote:
Originally posted by fb101
So What's YOUR trigger? When do you start putting all liquid capital into PMs
You'd have to hold a gun to my head, NOW, to get me to hold worthless FRN's instead of instantly converting all my disposable fiat income into real money  Why wait for PM's to start their phenomenal upward climb? Get em while they're cheap, or forever moan and groan about "missing your chance!"  |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
Edited by - beauanderos on 09/05/2010 15:05:23 |
 |
|
|
Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 15:19:46
|
I don't know if it will be possible to acquire PMs using fiat during the time of the exponential price appreciation. While the price of PMs will be rising high, there will be virtually NO seller of physical PMs. It will be too late. Regardless, would you risk it and sell your PMs then?
I guess you could make a killing speculating with paper PM assets at that time. But, what would you BUY with your profits as the buying power of your fiat was diminishing day after day? Who would want your fiat as there would be no PMs for sale?
I think the best approach would be to BUY physical PMs now, as much as you could afford, before the exponential rise occurs. Having physical PMs when the average person will pay any price to get them is better than having lots of fiat when no one wants to sell their PMs. So, I would be a BUYer now and in the near future to insure that you would have a store of wealth when the crisis time comes. I guess you will never get the chance to go 100% physical PMs when the exponential rise comes, unless you are there already now.  |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
|
Edited by - Country on 09/05/2010 15:24:45 |
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 16:13:09
|
quote:
Originally posted by Country
I don't know if it will be possible to acquire PMs using fiat during the time of the exponential price appreciation. While the price of PMs will be rising high, there will be virtually NO seller of physical PMs. It will be too late. Regardless, would you risk it and sell your PMs then?
I think I will have to respectfully disagree, Country, to a slight degree in what you foresee. I think there will always be shortsighted greedy idiots willing to sell their inherited silver on ebay as the price rises. The lot sizes will drop, though, and the proposed $600 limit may play a part in that. Along the way, as we climb "the wall of worry," there will be pullbacks encouraging people to think the rise is over... and that they should have "sold at the top." The long term holders of precious metals, on the other hand, understand the principles of fiat vs real money, and will likely hold onto their stashes except to trade into other forms of tangible worth (real estate, preps, etc). That said... why would anyone in their right mind want to wait for proof of the coming price explosion before purchasing? Why wait another year to buy a single silver coin  , when you can buy a whole roll now for the same price?  |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
|
|
|
fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 17:44:29
|
I believe there be be a deflation prior to the the inflation. I believe it will start in about 12-18 months. For a while, PM's will drop and be cheaper.
My opinion..... |
|
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 20:00:34
|
We're experiencing the economic deflation now, but with QE1 and QE2, not sure whether we will experience a pricing deflation or inflation. Irregardless, to add to an earlier post, I could foresee the end to CWR hunting, as silver will become as rare as Indian Heads are now when people wake up and smell the coffee  |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
|
|
|
beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 20:04:32
|
quote:
Originally posted by fb101
I believe there be be a deflation prior to the the inflation. I believe it will start in about 12-18 months. For a while, PM's will drop and be cheaper.My opinion.....
This could occur, but perhaps not in the way you expect. The broad, overall demand for PM's could drop for people in an economic pinch, while at the same time the price could continue to rise as demand is funneled to fewer, yet financially more stable (strong hands) buyers that are willing to pay more to vacuum up what little silver is offered. My reasoning applies to silver, not gold. |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
|
|
|
Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 20:58:47
|
we've been in the deflation since sept 2008.
people like us who trade FRN's for pm's (including copper) is the behavior that will create the hyperinflation. its a hyperinflation when no one wants FRN's. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
|
|
|
|
Dvorak
New Member
USA
19 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 20:59:48
|
| When the price of food goes up dramatically between the time I receive a paycheck and go to the store that day, it's time I want to be paid in gold/silver/copper/goods. The paper will be for home heating. |
|
|
|
BamaJoe
Penny Sorter Member
86 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 22:33:56
|
Well, except for the home I went 100% to PMs in 2001. Have to say I've been pleased with the results.
Guess I was early to the party. |
|
|
|
rosco
Penny Collector Member
USA
254 Posts |
Posted - 09/05/2010 : 23:42:47
|
quote:
Originally posted by BamaJoe
Well, except for the home I went 100% to PMs in 2001. Have to say I've been pleased with the results.
Guess I was early to the party.
I bet you are under 40 even today.
If we agreed (wife & I) I still can't say I would roll $200,000 from mutual funds to PM in one day. It was 42 years getting it their an I just don't have that much faith, Would roll $50,000 to PM then watch the market. I know about the Depression my parents struggled for 5 years before I was born. He had college Degree in Chemistry an she was a Seamstress. How will you look at things when you are 73? |
Old Geezer a HAND Sorter |
Edited by - rosco on 09/06/2010 00:09:00 |
|
|
|
BamaJoe
Penny Sorter Member
86 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 04:06:37
|
quote:
Originally posted by rosco
quote:
Originally posted by BamaJoe
Well, except for the home I went 100% to PMs in 2001. Have to say I've been pleased with the results.
Guess I was early to the party.
I bet you are under 40 even today.
If we agreed (wife & I) I still can't say I would roll $200,000 from mutual funds to PM in one day. It was 42 years getting it their an I just don't have that much faith, Would roll $50,000 to PM then watch the market. I know about the Depression my parents struggled for 5 years before I was born. He had college Degree in Chemistry an she was a Seamstress. How will you look at things when you are 73?
Actually I just recently hit 48 Rosco. My dad got me into the stock market back in the 70's while I was still a teenager (he was an attorney, but at one time back in the 60's had his own brokerage). I stayed heavy in the market until the tech stocks got to a point where it just wasn't funny and bailed about 6 months before the tech crash. Sat around from the fall of 99 until 2001 trying to figure out where to go from there and basically stayed in cash. Finally decided that with the direction we were going spending and deficit wise that pm's were my best option. At some point somewhere along the line it will be time to move to something else - just a question of when and what. |
|
|
|
BamaJoe
Penny Sorter Member
86 Posts |
Posted - 09/06/2010 : 14:13:54
|
| And Rosco you have a point, if I was 25 years older it's very possible I would not be 100% in. Different strategies are right for different people at different times. |
|
|
| |
Topic |
|
When do you go to 100% PM?
Forum Locked
