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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 08/16/2010 : 18:58:25
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This was posted by a member over at the SilverSeek forum. I thought it was worthy of being posted here.
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chroNick
I just wanted to give everyone a heads up about something and I'm going to try and get to the point, but theres a lot to cover.
I'm not trying to brag here or sound conceited at the least, but I have a good track record about market timing, and I foresaw practically everything that was coming while 99% of the population didn't and said the exact opposite.
On a technical scale and fundamental scale, it looks like we're gonna go into a really nasty bear market soon. I can't pinpoint the exact time or anything, but more than likely, we're going to have one more gasp of air in the stock market and test the May highs or maybe go half way between now and the May highs sometime this summer or fall and have another tank comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.
Like I said, I don't know exactly when it's coming but if I had to guess, probably around the end of this fall or early 2011 at the latest the market will be stable, but I'm expecting the stability to expire around mid-fall. When I say stable, I mean that the market will be lower than now. If you have any equities or investments that suffer badly in a bear market, I would consider selling all of it into the next decent sized rally we get and start building up some short positions if you're an aggressive market participant.
Unless you really understand and want all of the technical indicators, there's no point in me showing a bunch of charts but I'll try and talk about it briefly later. On a fundamental scale, we have some ARM expiration coming in the housing market later this summer and in the fall, the stimulus wearing off, there's huge negative consumer numbers, unemployment benefits expiring and unemployment continuing to climb. Traders are on vacation now so we have extremely low volume, but it's not unreasonable to think that a combination of these and bunch of professional institutional traders who are gonna start coming back into the market, and the bears who've been sitting on the sideline forever not been able to short including myself, come back and rip this market up.
On a technical level I've noticed that historically institutions love to do this. We had a huge support level broken in the stock market and it's got people bearish now. People are probably trying to short, but when the institutions come back, they're gonna give it one last pop up, and possibly make new year-to-date highs. When that happens, they'll use the media to start raving about another top in the market and how bullish everything is despite all of the stats/fundamentals in the market making everyone convinced that the market is strong and have idiots buy into this bulluse the bathroom so that the institutions can start unloading on to the market and rip this up to shreds.
And lastly we have a huge bond bubble building up. I don't know if it's going to pop. It's a coin flip as far as I can see, but just look at the 10 year government bonds and how low the yields have gone in the past few months, both in America and Japan. Traditionally when the economy gets bad, people usually park their money in the bond market, so we could definitely see more people go into "safe" assets, but we can't assume that it'll happen every time, or even this time around. Considering that it's in a bubble and if all the governments start monetizing their debts and devaluing their currency like crazy when use the bathroom hits the fan, there's absolutely no fundamental reason to buy a 10 year note.
I'm not saying that this is gonna happen, but just be prepared in case it does happen, because it's certainly looking like it's starting to set up. The worst thing that can happen now is if the stock market actually does make new yearly highs soon. There's too much historical data to show that when the fundamentals start to get extremely bearish but the stock market makes new highs that we're in for a bad bear market.
This isn't to say that you have to sell your house and buy as much gold/silver as you can. The last bear market during the 2008/2009 financial crisis, there was forced liquidation across ALL asset classes except the US dollar and the Japanese yen. That could very possibly repeat. Believe me, I don't think it will repeat forever, but it could happen one more time before the world finally loses total confidence in the US dollar, or it could happen this time around... so it's very important to have a balanced portfolio and not put everything into silver yet. For anyone that did in mid 2008 is still under water in their silver position if they didn't scale in, so don't think it can't happen again.
Good luck and I hope you prosper from this if it really does happen.
Peace
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Think positive. |
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AGCoinHunter
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
685 Posts |
Posted - 08/16/2010 : 19:44:02
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| AL, thanks for the link. I just today started to liquidate some of my stock holdings. I am going to continue until the end of August. This market has got a long way to fall and I dont want to be standing there trying to catch a falling knife. Also have tried to move some of my extra cash into gold, .999 silver and goods. Scary times are ahead kids, better be ready. |
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent."
-Thomas Jefferson
"There is no difference between communism and socialism, except in the means of achieving the same ultimate end: communism proposes to enslave men by force, socialism—by vote. It is merely the difference between murder and suicide." - Ayn Rand
________________________________________________
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Hitler: Race-based National Socialism
Obama: Class- and Race-based Post-National Socialism
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theo
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
588 Posts |
Posted - 08/16/2010 : 19:47:08
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The prediction of a bear market in the Fall is not surprising, especially with all the talk of the Hindenberg Omen over the past couple of days. However, this guy sounds like he knows his stuff and backs up his predictions with solid arguements. The idea of the banks/TPTB engineering one more sucker's rally before pulling the plug rings true to me.
Thanks for posting this Ardent. |
Edited by - theo on 08/16/2010 19:50:25 |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
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