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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
 Posted - 06/27/2010 : 11:25:42
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You Can't Time The Market
This is a phrase that I have heard time and again. Markets fluctuate at a whim beyond the capability of any mortal man. If one chooses to attempt to time the market they are really playing with fire. These expressions and words of advice have a clearly relevant position. By this perspective alone to attempt to diagnose a winning play becomes a bet on the roulette wheel. Spending many hours attempting to decipher financials and "think" one has found the best "in" position. I am not so sure this is the best method for the average individual. As there are people who have made a living doing just this I believe there is far more to the story.
My thoughts on entering any market are based on words of advice that have trickled to me from many individuals that I have respected in my life. Business owners, career professionals and most of all my mother and many other wise individuals that seem to land heads up when the rain starts to fall. These influences have allowed myself to continue on in life with a sense of optimism and pride, not because life has been bountiful in its fullest measure. But, because no matter what happens you always end up relying on yourself. It is after all your final decision as to what you may or may not do under any circumstance.
At the ripe old age of 7, I was introduced to a man that played heavy in my line of thinking. Our introduction is somewhat comical as you will see. One weekend afternoon I was playing in my suburban backyard when out of the clear blue sky I was being bombarded with "projectiles". Everywhere I turned giant red tomatoes where landing around me. Splattering and making a mess of everything in sight. As I made a high tailed exit into the house I could here the sounds of air born destruction as it plastered the house and also the back of my head just as I retreated into the back door.
My mother whom was raised on a farm and grew up with 5 brothers was a stern "Christian woman". The kind that made you walk to the lilac bush to pick out your "whooping stick"! This was not an individual to mess with. At least my behind was well aware of that! "What in God's name is going on out there" she said with the voice of Zeus powered by the heavens. Well one quick look up and down of my new red flavor and her eyes immediately looked to the yard across the way. " stop dripping on my floor, I just cleaned that, get outside and hose yourself off " were the words and I obeyed.
My mother was now in "soldier mode" as I refer to it and directly confronted the assault. As I was attempting to remove the particles of tomato, I noticed a boy run away behind the neighboring garage. Mom quickly turned around and proceeded to walk around the block to handle this dilemma. Thirty minutes or so later I was standing with what later would become my best friend and a tall man that reminded me of Clint Eastwood. This boy with tears rubbed from his eyes and his head sunken looked up to me and said "Sorry"! It was obvious by his expression that " Mr. Eastwood " had swiftly reconciled his child's behavior in a fashion I was quite familiar.
My new friend, though not at the time, spent the afternoon washing and cleaning his mess from our house and yard. Luckily for him about an hour into cleanup it started to rain. Not that he was allowed to come in from this sudden downpour. But, the shower helped speed the process of cleanup. The next day is when my true introduction began. Mr. Eastwood and his young son, whom was 4 years my senior came knocking on the backdoor.
My new friends father was a Southern man from Arkansas whom as I would find out later never stopped contemplating life and all it's peculiar ways. He had 6 children and my new pal was the youngest of the bunch. He asked my mother if I would be interested in playing "ball". It turns out that beside working in a steel mill, running a construction company that did everything from roofing to custom built cabinets and raising a family Mr. Eastwood was a lover of baseball and had been a coach for years. Taking the last pick every season and building a 1st place team out of what others said could never amount to much.
It was that moment when I heard the words clearly for the first time. My mother had said them many times, but for some reason they never rang true. When this tall statuesque man spoke it was in a clear deep and understanding tone. He had hung a string from a power line with a small plastic golf ball attached to the end. Then instructed me in "proper form" and asked me to swing a heavy wooden bat as if in slow motion to make a solid connection. Well, I was a persistent little fellow and did as I was told. It was not as easy as I had anticipated and my new pal jumped in to show me the way. As I spent an hour or so my mother and this man talked and smoked and I heard laughter as they walked their small gardens and talked of whatever big people talk about. After a clear look of frustration was written on my face I heard the words that will forever encompass my brain.
"Patience son"
As I said this was not the first time I had been told to be patient. But, it was that moment when every analogy and symbolizing reference made sense. "Rome wasn't built in a day" " you need crawl before you walk" and so on. I took a deep breath, relaxed, closed my eyes and swung in slow motion at an imaginary ball, thrown in what in my mind was the final game of the world series by a pitcher that was counting me out. Everything clicked right then and there.
My life has been a road of discovery, spending days and years trying anything new and adventurous. Everything I look at is fully understood that to become proficient one must be patient and practice.
Looking at life and reading many biographies of those that came saw and kicked butt has always lead me to the same conclusion. These individuals understood time and the necessity of patience. Being prepared for what was unknown by steadily practicing the basic disciplines of life. Unknowns are merely the same old thing scrambled into different packages waiting for the puzzle maker to put it all together.
Timing the market is unpredictable to say the least. Being prepared to take opportunity that presents itself is a discipline we can all adhere. So to those that believe you can not time the market, I say take a step back and look at it from a different perspective.
Proper preparation, prevents poor performance.
Prepare to take opportunity that you yet have been revealed. It's not the timing it is the execution that matters!
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"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
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You Can't Time The Market
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