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searching4silver
Penny Pincher Member
111 Posts |
 Posted - 03/19/2010 : 07:12:44
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Ok, so we are all on the same page with regard to using PM's as a means of hedging ourselves against the fall in the dollar, or inflation, or upcomming weakness in the US economy. (And lets be honest if we are on this site we have given this alot of thought!)
So other than investing in copper, Silver, and gold what else are you doing to hedge against economic turmoil?
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searching4silver
Penny Pincher Member
111 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 14:42:56
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| So i posted this in the morning and I figured i would have some great ideas by now! i guess everyone else is equally stumped! |
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JobIII
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1507 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 14:56:37
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I can say that from 1997 to 2008 when compared to Gold Consumer Stap and Disc had correlations of -.25 and -.20 and the US dollar was -.64.
Though none of these are high enough to be significant, I would think to hedge against gold you invest in something that performs well when gold does poorly. So if you are looking to hedge all your bets, you should think about diversity. |
Selling Copper cents. $0 FV available at 1.4xFV. Also interested in trading for wheat pennies and other coins Please pm me for requests or inquiries.
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Edited by - JobIII on 03/19/2010 14:57:18 |
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SouthernBelle
New Member
USA
20 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 15:06:03
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Well, as a mother of 3, I am preparing for my whole family. I have gotten a years worth of food storage. I add a little to it each month, that gives me some peace of mind... to know that I can feed my family. I've also figured out what we need/use every day other than food. Then, figured out how much I would need for a 5 year supply. Ex.. Soap, shampoo/cond, toothbrushes/paste, deoderant, razors,toilet papter etc. 5 yrs may be extreme but I figure if it gets that bad, it will take awhile to get things back to normal (hoping it DOES). These items can last a long time and we will use them anyway. At the very least, when inflation hits, I've purchased at a much lower cost than it would be selling for then.
I've also purchased socks, underwear etc and have a bin filled with them with larger sizes to allow the kids some growing room.
I've also purchased heirloom seeds... just in case.
Have a storage of meds as well, fever reducers, pain relievers, antibiotic ointment, band-aids etc.
My husband teases me sometimes about my "end of the world stash"..lol.... especially when I purchased 300 bars of ivory soap in one week! (In my defense, I had killer coupons and so I paid a total of $15 for them... you can also use them to make liquid laundry detergent in a pinch :o)
It might sound silly to some people but I sleep better at night knowing if something happened tomorrow, we would be ok for awhile. I need ALOT more silver and now have started sorting for copper so will continue stacking these. |
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thedrifter
Penny Sorter Member
USA
96 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 15:09:48
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What do forum members think about buying USPS "forever stamps" when the USPS hikes postages rates? I mean on the order of $1000.
Also buying guns, ammo, food staples. My girlfriends parents have abot 5 acres. If things got real bad we could stay with them. Assuming that the tax man does not take it from them. |
The Drifter |
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JobIII
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1507 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 15:22:20
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These threads are better than the 50c pulp fictions at a mom & pop. Southern Belle i think the 70% rebound in the market last year might have just been correcting for all the End of the World prep work you did.  Thanks!
Thedrifter, some people buy stamps on ebay for discounted prices. I'd look there first before buying $1000 in stamps now. <-- is that offer set to expire soon? |
Selling Copper cents. $0 FV available at 1.4xFV. Also interested in trading for wheat pennies and other coins Please pm me for requests or inquiries.
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 15:51:21
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Well, my thoughts are not exactly hedging as much as playing the current crises. I believe myself to be a realist and as such I accept what is. Meaning if these are the cards that I am holding, what is the best way to play this hand?
I am an entrepreneur that has been involved with many different businesses in my life. After an honorable discharge from the Navy in 1991 I went to school for electronics and also started a landscaping business. Over the next 18 plus years I have been involved in businesses as antiques and auctions, restaurants, electronics repair, moving, mortgage broker, auto sales, construction remodeling, hvac and scrap metal all as an owner or investor. But when in business with me I can't help but be involved.
I mention these things because each one has a place in our coming market scenario. "Hedging" seems like a simple practice of placing and waiting. Not to me! To me it involves effort and work to see that a simple "bet" is backed up and seen through.
I believe in a lean lifestyle yet have gotten off that road in the past and racked up some credit debt in areas I should not have. (credit should only be used to enhance wealth) First thing for any one not already lean I suggest getting out of all debt. Remove any and all payments without a tax credit immediately. Focus on a lifestyle that allows 25%-50% cash after monthly expenses. Yes that seems hard and almost impossible to anyone deep in debt. Let me tell you it is possible and can be done and is worth it in the long run.
Start a business that will cater to the market. Sure I know if the SHTF how will it matter. Well if that does take place it will happen across the board and no one will be left out. Hence the PM investment as well as food and shelter, but this is about what else we are doing. There is no reward without risk. I believe in a cost benefit analysis mentality that calculates the risk based on my capabilities and understanding as should ever one. Opportunity is everywhere and a coming crisis is no exception.
Opportunity On The Horizon
Let's assume the future events that may transpire. Those at the top of the food chain, the folks with a specialty degree or training in growing trends will be fine. Which means that not everyone will be sunk. We have more educated people in our country than ever before and these individuals will continue business as usual. High end products and services will still be a vital instrument and utility to all of those unaffected by a financial downturn. Anyone poised and ready for the turmoil that is impending will also be prepared to cater and capitalize on these events. Many businesses that are poorly ran yet have potential will be available for pennies on the dollar.
What can we do to "hedge" you ask? Become wise to the events and plan to make the best scenario for you and yours. Having rid oneself of debt and built a small savings will put you in a much better situation than many of the sheep. The best "hedge" in my opinion is right between your ears.
Think to yourself of the areas in which you have knowledge or would like to have knowledge. Do not fear change, embrace it for the wind blows every day yet who can predict from which direction? It is my experience that one business is not very different from the other. It all comes down to the bottom line. Is it profitable based on cost benefit analysis?
Being self employed has many benefits and pitfalls. It requires perseverance to overcome the many highs and lows involved. Do not invest money until you have a complete game plan including an exit strategy should something go awry.
In each venture I have been a part of there has always been a moment where I said "Oh Sh*t what have I done now", I call it the "gut check moment". We need this moment, for this is when character is made or broken! Whether you win or lose there is always knowledge to be gained. Had I threw in the towel at that moment I may have never felt personal success. The feeling of accomplishment that will last forever in you and all who are privileged to be apart.
My overall point may be getting sidetracked by my ramblings, to hedge to me means more than a safe bet to survive. It means to plan and execute that which it is you desire.
Invest in yourself!
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"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
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Copper Catcher
Administrator
USA
2092 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 19:24:13
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SouthernBelle I think you are right on track and cptindy I like your answer as well!
I think debt is probably one of the biggest obstacles many people face as well as making the decision to truly live within your means, no matter how little or much you have.
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1274 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 20:17:38
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I hope that I understand your question accurately.
Other than precious metals and base metals, there are other "things" you can use as a hedge against "economic turmoil" This was actually the premise behind the formation of Market Harmony. I'm not trying to torpedo the thread and divert the attention to my company, but since you asked, I felt that I have the opportunity to share.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Newton said that regarding physics, but it also (somewhat) applies to many other aspects of our lives. This includes economics. Economics, in a basic form, is the study of supply and demand. If you were to chart supply and demand, they would interact in a direct way. Where the 2 lines on these independent charts meet, is called price. Price is what we can use to hedge against "economic turmoil." When prices are not equal to the point where supply and demand meet, there exists an arbitrage opportunity. This opportunity can last for a very short to a very long period of time. But, eventually, the intersection of supply and demand will come to meet the point of equilibrium... better known as price. For economic students, what I've said is very basic, but it is the building block of "Market Harmony"
A "Market" is the population of buyers and sellers. "Harmony" is the balance between two entities. Price is found as the balance between those who want (demand) and those who have (supply). So, you now have a background of how I named my company. But, this is actually in direct correlation to the question you ask.
This is my answer:
Be a student of the market. Find the opportunities to buy at one price and sell at another, whether that is through pure price action or through value added services. Become a business. Profit, reinvest, grow, bring on other talent, expand, repeat. You'll be fully hedged in no time. You'll be the boss. You'll be proud of yourself.
Of course, there are rules that you need to follow in order to be successful, but the great thing about it all is that it is possible. Nothing beats hard earned knowledge and direct involvement with your endeavors. "Invest in yourself", as cptindy stated.
I don't know if that was what you are looking for, or if you wanted a simple answer like, "buy soybeans" but this is what I have done to hedge against economic turmoil. |
goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org |
Edited by - Market Harmony on 03/19/2010 20:21:09 |
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totalcount
Penny Sorter Member
USA
77 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 21:27:25
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quote:
Originally posted by thedrifter
What do forum members think about buying USPS "forever stamps" when the USPS hikes postages rates? I mean on the order of $1000.
I think the risk there is that people may not need them. Almost all my stamps go to paying bills and more and more people are doing that online. Rates go up too much and people might just stop using the USPS. |
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theo
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
588 Posts |
Posted - 03/19/2010 : 22:30:30
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Some great posts here! The only things I would add are:
1. If you have extra money to invest and you want to diversify your inflation hedge position try the energy sector, specifically natural gas and oil. There are a number of solid ETFs and Royalty Trusts that track energy prices and pay decent dividends.
2. Make sure you have all the hand tools you could concievably need, including small stuff like nails, screws and washers. Look for flea markets and garage sales to buy extra tools on the cheap.
3. I don't know if this counts as an "investment" but some of our most important expenditures could well be on home security. It can be as involved as installing a metal roof to protect against fire or as simple as buying solar lights to illuminate the dark areas of your property. |
Edited by - theo on 03/19/2010 22:31:36 |
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Pachucko
Penny Sorter Member
USA
43 Posts |
Posted - 03/20/2010 : 07:33:58
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quote:
Originally posted by SouthernBelle
Well, as a mother of 3, I am preparing for my whole family. I have gotten a years worth of food storage. I add a little to it each month, that gives me some peace of mind... to know that I can feed my family. I've also figured out what we need/use every day other than food. Then, figured out how much I would need for a 5 year supply. Ex.. Soap, shampoo/cond, toothbrushes/paste, deoderant, razors,toilet papter etc. 5 yrs may be extreme but I figure if it gets that bad, it will take awhile to get things back to normal (hoping it DOES). These items can last a long time and we will use them anyway. At the very least, when inflation hits, I've purchased at a much lower cost than it would be selling for then.
I've also purchased socks, underwear etc and have a bin filled with them with larger sizes to allow the kids some growing room.
I've also purchased heirloom seeds... just in case.
Have a storage of meds as well, fever reducers, pain relievers, antibiotic ointment, band-aids etc.
My husband teases me sometimes about my "end of the world stash"..lol.... especially when I purchased 300 bars of ivory soap in one week! (In my defense, I had killer coupons and so I paid a total of $15 for them... you can also use them to make liquid laundry detergent in a pinch :o)
It might sound silly to some people but I sleep better at night knowing if something happened tomorrow, we would be ok for awhile. I need ALOT more silver and now have started sorting for copper so will continue stacking these.
That's such a great way to take care of your family. Keep stacking!! |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 03/20/2010 : 08:10:50
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Invest in knowledge before you make your game plan for hedging. Go to the library (we pay taxes, use it... it's not being cheap to not have to own your own amazon version of a book) and check out the various post-apocalypse type books. The authors gave it a lot of thought in order to come up with a book-length story. Then ponder on what the characters experience and plan accordingly. What everyone has posted makes sense. Make sure you have a form of money (metals), forms of sustenance (food, water), daily necessities (storage can be a problem), and a means of securing your supplies from theft and looting (protect it or hide it). I think it's basically nearly impossible to think of everything and protect against it, but you could stock extras in anticipation of bartering. Develop a local (if possible) circle of like-minded friends.. and tryto get your loved ones and relatives to prepare as well... otherwise they will just move in with you (or come begging) if TSHTF and deplete all your hard-earned store of supplies much more quickly than if they had stockpiled their own. Read Nickelless's site (survivalprep.net) for more.  |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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zerocd
Penny Hoarding Member
555 Posts |
Posted - 03/20/2010 : 18:26:56
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| Ammo |
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nologiks
Penny Sorter Member
83 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 20:00:33
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| lots of ammo |
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Jason
Penny Pincher Member
USA
138 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2010 : 20:44:10
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| alcohol and cigarettes = money. After Katrina I had to wait in line for an hour to get a six pack of hot beer and cigarettes were gone before i got there. Of course i bought a couple extra cartons of cigs the day before the storm so i was ok. I learned two things. When disaster strikes people wanna stupify themselves and a man with cigarettes soon becomes very popular. These items could easily be traded for basically anything needed. Stock up on cheap whiskey and cigs. Rotate stock as necissary on saturday nights:) |
Rule six: There is no rule six. |
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searching4silver
Penny Pincher Member
111 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 08:59:16
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Wow ! My question was more geared toward investing in the classic sense (stocks, bonds, other currencies) I have been thinking about opening up bank accounts in other counties or foriegn bonds. That type of thing. I wasn't anticipating the Mad Max discusion. Not to say there isn't a place for that. (I too have made simular prepartions with regard to food, guns, and ammo.) However, I was looking for the less sexy monetary investing advice.
I think many of us are 1)hedging inflation by buying products in bulk at lower prices now and 2) preparing for the SHTF scenario. Those are both of intrest to me. Maybe I will start a couple other threads regarding those. |
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 09:53:27
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That is the beauty of a forum!
It allows free flowing information, possibly into avenues yet contemplated when ones mind is predetermined in a thought process.
Yes! WoW, is a good place to start as well as Hmmph!
I wonder? |
"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
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Be Nice to BankTellers
Penny Sorter Member
USA
77 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2010 : 11:33:30
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| Solar panels are a good inflation hedge, and reduce the need for all those hand tools. Although nothing will be on TV, eh? |
Grandpa always told me, "Back in 1964..." I listened.
Selling copper cents @ $2.50/lb. + shipping. |
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blacksheep404
New Member
12 Posts |
Posted - 03/24/2010 : 12:29:44
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| food, water and water purification means, guns and ammo, alcohol for bartering (and drinking),medications, and an alternate heat source for cold winters and emergencies. |
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Nacinator
Penny Sorter Member
28 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 01:50:42
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| I have approx. 20K of extra 22lr to barter with. Increased the food stores to almost 6 months for me the misses and our dog. also picked up 4 15 gallon water kegs and a hand pump for $50.00. |
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tunylune
New Member
USA
20 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 04:11:53
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SouthernBelle, You are doing exactly what I am doing with a few exceptions. I purchased a camper and outfitted it for long term living. I found a friend that owns a 120 ac. farm and I now camp there in all kinds of weather so it is like a dry run. I found some things That I thought I needed and didn't, and some that I didn't think of that I did. I built a wind turbine very cheaply that produces all the power I need as there is always a breeze on top of my little hill hideout. I use my awning on my camper to catch rain water and purify it for drinking. It runs into 55 gal plastic drums. I rigged a wood stove outside the camper that fan blows heat into the inside. Also heats my small 50 chicken coop and 20 rabbit hutch. It also heats water that goes into an old 30 gal water heater. It also creates steam that powers a heavy duty truck alternator to charge my bank of deep cycle batteries when there is no wind. The stove is in a small metal building enclosure. I also keep 4 nanny goats and a buck. They supply milk and cheese and meat if needed. It has two good sized ponds on the place with plenty of frogs fish deer. We were given a horse because the owner couldn't feed it. I am teaching it to pull a wagon, Plow, and walk on a exerciser that I converted to press apples, grind grain and power an old truck generator for electricity. I threw a cammo tarp over the camper so we would be very hard to see even from the air. My chicken coops are portable so I can move them to new forage. the scat goes in the compost pile for the garden. We plant heritage seeds. If we get tired of being up there we come home for a few days. I grew up in a 4 room log cabin on top of a mountain in the Ozark Mtns. I have learned that a little thought a preparation and work you can be totally self reliant. We stay up there more now than we do at home. We have a very nice home but are more comfortable up on the farm. Good Luck to you It's the self reliant people that have and continue to make this country the best in the world. God Bless America. Mark
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When the People fear the Government there is tyranny. When the Government fears the People there is Freedom. Thomas Jefferson |
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searching4silver
Penny Pincher Member
111 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 08:25:54
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I honestly don't worry too much about the end of society type scenarios. I have guns, food, and water. I was a boy scout and a Peace Corps volunteer so I have lived without electric, running water, and most municiple services for about 4 years of my life total.
What I am trying to push this thread back towards is its original intent was looking for monitary hedges against inflation. Monitary investments. Types of stocks? I have thought about opening up bank accoutns in other countries in order to benifit from the declining dollar? I have also thought about bonds from countries with less debt to GDP ratio than the US. I am basicly looking for bets against the US. I honestly don't see anything changing with regard to government spending in the short term (Moody's threatened to lower our AAA bond rating recently) Thus, I am basicly betting against the US that we will mess up our own bonds and economy before we wake up and become more fiscally responsible. (think the current situation in Greece) |
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dougefresh
Penny Sorter Member
34 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 19:08:50
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A question as a non smoker? If I buy a few cartons of cigs on sale, how long will they last and how do I keep them 'fresh' if that's the word.
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Edited by - dougefresh on 03/25/2010 19:11:02 |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
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SteelCityCopper
New Member
14 Posts |
Posted - 03/25/2010 : 20:02:05
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I agree with the "lots of ammo" comments especially. Guns, ammo, food, water... basic necessities will be the new currency until some kind of stabilization occurs should we experience something catastrophic.
I always tell my wife that my gun buying is investing (even in a stable economy / world) as guns won't devalue much if at all (depending on the type you get, wear and tear, etc.). If you have huge stashes of food, medicine, etc. and other people didn't follow through with proper planning and have to provide for their families vs seeing their children starve, they'll do anything and everything to get yours - not saying this applies to everyone, but it will happen. I saw it during Katrina (a small scale but still the dynamic was visible).
I'm interested to hear others comments on this topic... |
Jason
www.steelcitycopper.com |
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How can we hedge ourselves in addition to PM's?
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