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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
 Posted - 02/26/2010 : 15:22:16
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Keep your eye on the Comex (gold and silver) ball
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A must read, imo:
COMEX INVENTORY DATA REVEAL AN
ALARMING TREND
By Adrian Douglas
You must be logged in to see this link.
Snips:
"For more than 6 months I have been gathering data released daily by the
COMEX concerning delivery notices and inventory levels of gold and silver. This
data must be captured and recorded each day as there is no database of
historical data available to the general public.
Studying data on a daily basis is not conducive to seeing the big picture so I have
just completed a study of what can be discerned by looking at the entire 6
months of data. The results are very revealing."
.........
"Table 1 summarizes the data collected from August 6, 2009 to February 12,
2010.
What is immediately clear is that the cumulative withdrawals from the “registered”
category (the dealers) are inferior to the amount of silver and gold obligations
implied by the delivery notices.
In silver the equivalent of 33.5 Mozs of delivery notices were issued yet only 16.3
Mozs (49%) of silver bullion left the registered inventory over the same period. In
gold, 2.8 Mozs of delivery notices were issued and only 2.04 Mozs (73%) of gold
left the registered inventory. What happened to the difference? There are a few
possibilities
1) the delivery receipts were re-tendered for cash
You must be logged in to see this link.
2) the deliveries have not been made yet
3) metal was leased from the customers (eligible inventory) and so the
difference, therefore, appears included in the total withdrawals from the
customer inventory
4) there were large deliveries between dealers not requiring any movement
of metal in the registered category
Of these possibilities (4) seems the least likely. Why would a dealer stand for
delivery only to leave the metal on the exchange?
Option (3) is a distinct possibility because the cumulative withdrawals from both
eligible and registered categories in silver are 38.9 Mozs and in gold 2.47 Mozs
which are very comparable to the delivery notice totals of 33.5 Mozs and 2.8
Mozs for silver and gold respectively. If the dealers are leasing metal to meet
delivery this would be extremely bullish.
Options (1) and (2) are also possibilities.
So the conclusion that can be drawn from this data is that the metal being
delivered from the registered category is not on its own high enough by a
substantial margin to meet the obligations represented by the delivery notices. It
is not, however, possible to say where the balance has come from.
But what is more important is that the data reveals a very shocking trend. That is
that the registered (dealer) inventory is being drawn down at a phenomenal rate.
In silver the inventory has dropped by 24% in 6 months while in gold it has
dropped an eye-popping 41% in 6 months! The withdrawal to deposit ratio for
registered silver is 14:1 and in gold it is 5:1. If this rate of drawdown continues
the registered inventory of silver will be exhausted in 18.8 months and in just 8.5
months for gold!
This inventory drawdown is very revealing. Over the same period the open
interest in gold increased 15% while in silver it increased 19%. By way of an
analogy one would not expect a company with increasing orders to decrease its
stock levels! Why would the inventory not be replenished when Open Interest is
increasing? The most likely reason is a growing shortage of bullion."...
Much more at link above.
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Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
 Posted - 02/26/2010 : 15:50:59
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| will be interesting to hear what ted butler has to say tommorrow on king world news. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 18:34:13
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I read this article and several more from the author. I being a new PM investor have done what I normally do with the rest of my daily living. That is find what I like and frequent often, asking as many questions as I can without being offensive.
I have found a nice dealer that I see 3-4 times a week. During my buying process I always ask questions and then listen attentively. During a recent visit I was interested in the market and what else is done in the store. It becomes apparent something is occurring behind the counter as several people are working yet there is not a lot of traffic.
My question was in regard to buying ASE vs Bullion. The answer was just buy the bullion. I like ASE's so I keep buying them, anyway the conversation of the big boys in silver comes up.
Interestingly enough it was said that the big sellers are only obligated to have 20% of the bullion on hand to make a sale.They have 30 days and more to make a delivery. I said "huh, you mean it is like fractional reserve banking?" He said Yes!
At this moment he states that little ol' me gets calls from the Big boys to cover sales all the time. When they call he said they are willing to pay a premium on premium to secure the metal.
This lead into more conversation about the market and his views.
Now this gentleman from my perspective and analysis of these talks knows his business well, very well!
I find it even more interesting after reading the above link and article.
Food For Thought!
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"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
Edited by - cptindy on 02/26/2010 19:06:59 |
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kirkland
New Member
USA
0 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 18:45:10
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I knew I wasn't the only one who listened to Ted Butler on King World News. Good stuff. However my favorite is Andrew Gause on One Radio Network, just in case you haven't heard of him.
Great article! I still think silver and gold have a positive future. |
Edited by - kirkland on 02/26/2010 18:51:02 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 18:47:47
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Good insider information that you posted there
cptindy. Thanks.
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Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for your edification and amusement only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com or its host to provide investment, medical, matrimonial, legal, security or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved.
Think positive. |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 19:03:28
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| Thanks for sharing that; So I wonder if that is one reason why premiums stay high when silver goes low. |
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 19:11:48
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He characterized his position as being short and wide, never long!
RE: fb101 But that make sense why premiums increase to absorb the lows. |
"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
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thogey
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1617 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 20:26:43
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quote:
Originally posted by cptindy
At this moment he states that little ol' me gets calls from the Big boys to cover sales all the time. When they call he said they are willing to pay a premium on premium to secure the metal.
This is really interesting! Did he specify which big boys?
Edit: spelling correction |
Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
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Edited by - thogey on 02/26/2010 23:40:54 |
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cptindy
Penny Hoarding Member
572 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 22:45:08
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I do my best to be delicate in these matters of a persons trade. I provoke only to stir emotion and then let them speak.
I was talking about two popular internet companies a p and k it. He referenced NY and the North that was it. But he said all of them are the same! |
"It is the nature of the human species to reject what is true but unpleasant and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting"
" The average man doesn't want to be free. He wants to be safe."
H.L. Mencken
http://silver-news-today.com/ |
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Dalsuh
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
757 Posts |
Posted - 02/26/2010 : 22:52:02
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| I don't understand the Comex delivery issue. In the article it said "dealers" a several times. So do companies like Apmex and CNI get delivery from Comex? Who gets delivery from them? Is it institutions and wealthy individuals? |
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Nickelless
Administrator
USA
5580 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2010 : 07:14:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Dalsuh
I don't understand the Comex delivery issue. In the article it said "dealers" a several times. So do companies like Apmex and CNI get delivery from Comex? Who gets delivery from them? Is it institutions and wealthy individuals?
There is no actual delivery. There is far more silver on paper than actually available for delivery, and probably the same for gold. A lot of people have suspected a shell game for some time now with COMEX, and it looks like that's starting to become apparent. Large institutions are holding large numbers of contracts for gold and silver, but not taking delivery, and if they demanded delivery and suddenly it became apparent that someone had been cooking the books, you can just imagine the turmoil that would cause in the commodities markets, especially PMs. I figure the U.S. government has probably sold off most of its gold (or is it tungsten? ), so they're just biding time. Sort of like what the Fed is doing right now trying to artificially boost a dead economy by injecting "liquidity" in the form of worthless FRNs. |
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Edited by - Nickelless on 02/27/2010 07:18:47 |
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Dalsuh
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
757 Posts |
Posted - 02/27/2010 : 12:27:14
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelless
quote:
Originally posted by Dalsuh
I don't understand the Comex delivery issue. In the article it said "dealers" a several times. So do companies like Apmex and CNI get delivery from Comex? Who gets delivery from them? Is it institutions and wealthy individuals?
There is no actual delivery. There is far more silver on paper than actually available for delivery, and probably the same for gold. A lot of people have suspected a shell game for some time now with COMEX, and it looks like that's starting to become apparent. Large institutions are holding large numbers of contracts for gold and silver, but not taking delivery, and if they demanded delivery and suddenly it became apparent that someone had been cooking the books, you can just imagine the turmoil that would cause in the commodities markets, especially PMs. I figure the U.S. government has probably sold off most of its gold (or is it tungsten?), so they're just biding time. Sort of like what the Fed is doing right now trying to artificially boost a dead economy by injecting "liquidity" in the form of worthless FRNs.
Thx for the clarification, basically it's just a another ponzi scheme.
I don't think "they" will ever ask for delivery, cause they're part of the scheme. |
PACK THE FORUM EVERY MONDAY NIGHT
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Central 8 PM ( Forum Time )
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Pacific 6 PM ( HoardCopperByTheTon Time)
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COMEX inventory alarming
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