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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
 Posted - 12/09/2009 : 09:01:29
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<i>"Does the recent decline in gold mean the bull market is dead?" We take a look at the old "50% rule."
The 50% rule is an old Wall Street maxim that bull-market moves often give back 50% of their gains before making a new push higher. These declines serve to shake off the latecomers and frustrate as many people as possible.
Starting in September, gold made an enormous run from $955 an ounce to its December high of $1,218 – a $263 jump. Using the 50% rule, we see it would be perfectly normal for gold to decline down to $1,086. Common-sense perspectives like the "long view" and the "50% rule" leave the seasoned investor unconcerned with the recent decline in gold. </i>
I'll try to come up with similar number for silver.
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Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 12/09/2009 : 09:03:43
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| i pulled up a chart of SLV. Went from 12.50 to 18.99. I'll call that 19. so the gain was 6.50. half of that is 3.25. so a pull back to 15.75 might be on the horizon. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 12/09/2009 : 09:07:43
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If you consider that the breakout commenced when GOLD exceeded the 2008 all time high of $1033, the jump to $1218 would be a move of $185. Using the 50% criteria, the give back would be $93 (7.6% decline) to $1125. $1125 is the low point of this correction. Time to BUY?
Assuming SILVER has recently appreciated as much as gold (GOLD/SILVER ratio has been constant the past few weeks around 63), a similar decline would be reasonable, from $19.44 to $17.96. SILVER recently dropped as low as $17.55, a decline of 9.7%. Time to BUY? |
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 12/09/2009 09:18:42 |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 12/09/2009 : 09:31:10
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
If you consider that the breakout commenced when GOLD exceeded the 2008 all time high of $1033, the jump to $1218 would be a move of $185. Using the 50% criteria, the give back would be $93 (7.6% decline) to $1125. $1125 is the low point of this correction. Time to BUY?
Assuming SILVER has recently appreciated as much as gold (GOLD/SILVER ratio has been constant the past few weeks around 63), a similar decline would be reasonable, from $19.44 to $17.96. SILVER recently dropped as low as $17.55, a decline of 9.7%. Time to BUY?
not sure what logic you are using. hunt is measuring from trough to peak and predicting a new trough at 50% of the peak.
others look at moving averages like the 50 day moving average. thatst at about 17.20 or so. in minor pull backs you often bounce off that number. in more severe corrections, it penetrates the 50 and sometimes goes as deep as the 200 dma.
others say there are no markets any more, only interventions. we shall see. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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brian0918
Penny Collector Member
USA
315 Posts |
Posted - 12/09/2009 : 09:43:28
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| I would be one of those last "others". We are likely to see increased volatility, which will create a feedback loop as all the old trusty predictors become useless, causing more volatility. That is always the consequence of forced intervention into the market. |
"The man who speaks to you of sacrifice, speaks of slaves and masters. And intends to be the master." -- Ayn Rand
Searched: $2230 Nickels; Liberty: 1; Buffalo: 4; War: 20; 2009: 2; 2010D: 8 |
Edited by - brian0918 on 12/09/2009 09:43:44 |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 12/09/2009 : 12:51:35
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| looks like we penetrated 17.20 on silver. at about 17.11 right now. i'm not an expert technician, but that level is probably significant. it will probably drop further. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2408 Posts |
Posted - 12/09/2009 : 13:02:06
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My only concern is this one, which I haven't heard discussed anywhere. JPMorgan is the biggest short seller of silver and gold. They're also one of the member banks of the FED. So what's to keep them from virtually unlimited perpetual market manipulation? Suppose a large part of that TARP bailout was intended for the express purpose of future precious metals market suppression?
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Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/ |
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1588 Posts |
Posted - 12/09/2009 : 13:16:14
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| GATA has demonstrated that the Federal Reserve partipates in (manipulates) the gold market. Probably silver also. So the other side is not even limited to JPM's assets. |
Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X
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Brian Hunt on PM Prices
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