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 Silver Thoughts - Breakout Soon
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member


USA
3121 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2009 :  18:44:23  Show Profile Send Country a Private Message
I just went to the Tulving website and noticed that he is out of generic 90% silver. Also, in the past week I noticed that the BD Nucleo market maker has reduced his BID/ASK spread from $1300 to only $600. While this may be conjecture, I think that 90% silver is being quietly bought up in bag quantities by investors with strong hands. IMHO, this is a "tell" prior to a SILVER breakout/catch-up soon.

What do you guys think?

For those of you who deal in large quantities of 90% silver, have you noticed the bags rapidly disappearing similar to 2008? Do you find 90% an easy sale to the large market makers who seem to be running out of 90%?

---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt

fb101
Administrator



USA
2856 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2009 :  19:11:25  Show Profile Send fb101 a Private Message
Just noticing the silver/gold action; Gold is busting out to new highs while silver is bouncing off of $18. I think when silver bust through it will take off like a rocket, but I do not know when. Looking over my shoulder at the dollar, there may be a bounce in here that will take the dollar slightly higher and PMs lower, with a gold bottom in the 1050 area and I expect a Silver bottom in the $16+ area.

I have to plead guilty to fouling the market yesterday by buying some silver.
Got stuck paying $22 for bunch ASEs at a dealer, but supplies of these are down, so you take what you can get sometimes.

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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
3121 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2009 :  19:43:40  Show Profile Send Country a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by fb101

Just noticing the silver/gold action; Gold is busting out to new highs while silver is bouncing off of $18. I think when silver bust through it will take off like a rocket, but I do not know when. Looking over my shoulder at the dollar, there may be a bounce in here that will take the dollar slightly higher and PMs lower, with a gold bottom in the 1050 area and I expect a Silver bottom in the $16+ area.

I have to plead guilty to fouling the market yesterday by buying some silver.
Got stuck paying $22 for bunch ASEs at a dealer, but supplies of these are down, so you take what you can get sometimes.



The USD looks weaker here to me. It should depreciate 2-3% before it tests the 74 resistance area. GOLD should appreciate appropriately.

I think SILVER is being accumulated. The price of SILVER seems to be being held down as an accumulation proceeds by the big investors. Fundamentally, it is consolidating at the $17 to $18 level and once above that I believe the old high of $21 will be challenged.

Have you seen silver supplies of coins and bars drying up, hard to obtain?

---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt

Edited by - Country on 11/13/2009 19:52:26
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fb101
Administrator



USA
2856 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2009 :  20:30:21  Show Profile Send fb101 a Private Message
silver supplies (except for real junk) are drying up here and premiums are rising.

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Nickelless
Administrator



USA
5580 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2009 :  21:14:51  Show Profile Send Nickelless a Private Message
I haven't bought any silver this week but bought 4 oz. generic rounds from my usual dealer last week. He always seems to have an ample supply, but then again except for last spring when I got my tax refund, I haven't bought more than 10 oz. at a time from him in a while, so I don't know if any of the BIG local buyers are keeping his supply tight. I'll ask him next week if he's had trouble getting an ample supply.


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strom
New Member



13 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2009 :  22:18:44  Show Profile Send strom a Private Message
Hello. I'm new to the forum, or actually new to posting. Kinda hanging around learning the ropes until I had something meaningful to share. I'm a silver/gold type, but must admit this forum turned me on to pennies etc.

But in regards to the 90%. I just bought some about a week ago(11.4x face mind you) and I couldn't believe how much 90% the dealer had. I normally do not shop at this store. The prices have always seemed alittle on the high side, but I could pass up on the 11.4x. But it is the largest dealer in town and he had 5 gal. buckets full of the stuff. franklins, kennedys, dimes,quarters. He also told me he has it coming in rather steadliy. I do think the shortages would show up on the big internet guys first before they worked their way down to mid/smaller US cities, but for what its worth. there's what going on in my neck of the woods.

Edited by - strom on 11/13/2009 22:19:59
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jadedragon
Administrator



Canada
3788 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2009 :  23:25:35  Show Profile Send jadedragon a Private Message
I just offloaded over 200 ounces - so I expect the price to soar next week.

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator



USA
6807 Posts

Posted - 11/14/2009 :  02:48:21  Show Profile Send HoardCopperByTheTon a Private Message
Don't worry jadedragon.. I have been buying all week.. so that should make the price drop.. lol.

That is a great price strom.. and welcome to the forum. Many of us here are big silver/gold guys as well as having a small stack of copper. I hope you bought a lot at that price. You could probably buy it at that price and sell it for a small profit to other members here if the market doesn't move against you.

If your percentages are low.. just sort more. If your percentages are high.. just sort more.

Now selling Copper pennies. 1.6x plus shipping. Limited amounts available.
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1588 Posts

Posted - 11/14/2009 :  07:08:53  Show Profile Send Lemon Thrower a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Country

I just went to the Tulving website and noticed that he is out of generic 90% silver. Also, in the past week I noticed that the BD Nucleo market maker has reduced his BID/ASK spread from $1300 to only $600. While this may be conjecture, I think that 90% silver is being quietly bought up in bag quantities by investors with strong hands. IMHO, this is a "tell" prior to a SILVER breakout/catch-up soon.

What do you guys think?

For those of you who deal in large quantities of 90% silver, have you noticed the bags rapidly disappearing similar to 2008? Do you find 90% an easy sale to the large market makers who seem to be running out of 90%?



well your comments are very logical, but these markets are not logical. earlier in the year premiums were north of 2 bucks an ounce on junk. then they crashed to a negative premium briefly, and when that happened silver exploded (might have been very shortly after). logically, you would think silver would not move up when the price of phyiscal was so low.

the explanation is that the bullion price is set by the futures market. the physical price is set by supply and demand of physical.

you are probably safe to say premiums are going to move up. what happens to the price of bullion is anyone's guess. its well overdue to come backdown to at least the 50 day moving average, somewhere in the 14s. would not be surprised if it went lower say to the 12s, although there is a smaller chance of that. still, i think we are in the low 20's by april 15.

Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X


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Dumpster Diver
Penny Collector Member



USA
474 Posts

Posted - 11/14/2009 :  08:34:28  Show Profile Send Dumpster Diver a Private Message
90% junk drying up fast in my area. At least at my main buy sources...13x face+ is rearing it's ugly head.

"You're not really gonna throw that out...are you"?
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Investin Cents
Penny Pincher Member



USA
129 Posts

Posted - 11/15/2009 :  00:05:17  Show Profile Send Investin Cents a Private Message
I recently paid 12.5 times face. The dealer was nice - I got to pick through many halves at my leisure. She was friendly and helpful and the selection was good. Actually, she was my 2nd choice for dealers at a show but when the 1st dealer did not appear, I chose her. I am glad I did! She had better items in better shape than the other dealer (less wear, etc.) So sometimes the higher premium is fine if you think you get value in the price. I have no regrets. Plus, the price was "fair" - to ask for less than spot is not being realistic. Finally, I have a long-term horizon so 12.5 times may be a steal now compared to later!!!

Most recent book I've read: "Meltdown" by Thomas E. Woods Jr. Current book: "I.O.U.: Why Everyone Owes Everyone & No One Can Pay" by John Lanchester
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
3121 Posts

Posted - 11/15/2009 :  21:10:44  Show Profile Send Country a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Country

I just went to the Tulving website and noticed that he is out of generic 90% silver. Also, in the past week I noticed that the BD Nucleo market maker has reduced his BID/ASK spread from $1300 to only $600. While this may be conjecture, I think that 90% silver is being quietly bought up in bag quantities by investors with strong hands. IMHO, this is a "tell" prior to a SILVER breakout/catch-up soon.

What do you guys think?

For those of you who deal in large quantities of 90% silver, have you noticed the bags rapidly disappearing similar to 2008? Do you find 90% an easy sale to the large market makers who seem to be running out of 90%?



I think SILVER is going to move higher real soon. The BD market maker reduced his BID/ASK spread to only $300 this evening for 90% generic SILVER bags. Also, TULVING raised their SELL price from SPOT to SPOT+15c for 90%; from SPOT-25c to SPOT-5c for 40%. Supplies must be tightening up for the online sellers.

$18 SILVER today?

1005ET SILVER spot at $18.00
1010ET SILVER spot at $18.14 - Liftoff has begun!
1040ET SILVER spot at $18.30
1325ET SILVER spot at $18.40



---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt

Edited by - Country on 11/16/2009 13:46:08
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george454
Penny Pincher Member



242 Posts

Posted - 11/16/2009 :  08:07:17  Show Profile Send george454 a Private Message
Well I usually stick to the copper forum since I only purchase very small amounts of silver, but was a the flea market this weekend and the two coin dealers there had ample amounts of junk coins. One I generally buy a dollar face value every week or two from at spot told me you know if you ever want more I have buckets of these things at home (mainly quarters and dimes with a few Franks). The interesting things was though the guy that was with me has gold and a good chunck of it and they both offered him spot + for it. They really wanted his 1/10 oz gold coins but both said they would pay the amount on everything else he wanted to sell.
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Investin Cents
Penny Pincher Member



USA
129 Posts

Posted - 11/16/2009 :  13:27:57  Show Profile Send Investin Cents a Private Message
Country & others: what's up with Silver & Copper today??? On one price site I see them up over $1 & 13’ respectively. I see similar jumps in Gold & Platninum.

What gives? Did Bernanke spook the PM markets or make folks run to their local coin dealers??

Most recent book I've read: "Meltdown" by Thomas E. Woods Jr. Current book: "I.O.U.: Why Everyone Owes Everyone & No One Can Pay" by John Lanchester
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
3121 Posts

Posted - 11/16/2009 :  13:37:15  Show Profile Send Country a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Investin Cents

Country & others: what's up with Silver & Copper today??? On one price site I see them up over $1 & 13’ respectively. I see similar jumps in Gold & Platninum.

What gives? Did Bernanke spook the PM markets or make folks run to their local coin dealers??



Industrial metals all up in anticipation of a worldwide recovery. I think the bailout LIQUIDITY/zero US interest rates are moving everything higher. The DXY (dollar index) fell below the 75 support and speculation is that it will move much lower as the USD continues to be the preference currency for the carry trade. Bernanke speech did nothing to dispell the belief that the US government won't make the USD stronger. PMs rebounded smartly after the speech was over.

I guess it is a bunch of cross currents that is bullish for everything except the USD.

---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt

Edited by - Country on 11/16/2009 13:43:30
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n/a
deleted



3 Posts

Posted - 11/16/2009 :  16:08:18  Show Profile Send n/a a Private Message
So...
Is it the general consensus that the best time for me to go out and purchase a couple hundred silver eagles is now or wait for another dip?

By the way mr. "hoardcopperbytheton" I love your comment about what you get when you cross the U.S. Border but you forgot something else they also get...a job...while 15% + of the citizens don't have one.

Yes, it is real. Free Silver Eagles.
http://SilverSnowBall.com/1966
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
3121 Posts

Posted - 11/16/2009 :  16:25:53  Show Profile Send Country a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by EdFromOhio

So...
Is it the general consensus that the best time for me to go out and purchase a couple hundred silver eagles is now or wait for another dip?



Welcome to RealCent EdFromOhio.

I guess it depends on your own personal situation. If you're short on SILVER, buy some. If you're short on GOLD, buy some. If you don't have much CASH, start crackin those half rolls from banks and find some. Or, start sifting those penny bank rolls for copper. If you've got a job, buy incrementally what you can afford to build your stash.

Regardless of your personal wealth, when the USD tanks, you don't want to be caught without some PMs stashed away. The USD may be beginning its descent right now.

---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org

The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt

Edited by - Country on 11/16/2009 16:32:43
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Lemon Thrower
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1588 Posts

Posted - 11/16/2009 :  16:37:16  Show Profile Send Lemon Thrower a Private Message
my instincts are telling me its going to come down. i've been nibbling only lately. if you guys buy here be ready to hold on. its should be a wild ride.

Buying:
Peace/Morgan G+ at $15.00
copper cents at 1.3X
wheat pennies at 3X


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