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deleted
19 Posts |
 Posted - 07/08/2007 : 16:13:04
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A few thoughts that may have been talked about but feel should be re-hashed. What are we all thinking copper prices will be. my guess is that the commodities boom will continue for about another 10 years with a blow off top. ala the dot com era. My price point guesses are 5-6 cents in 2-3 years. 9-10 cents in 3-5,then a big jump in years 5-7 to about 17-20 cents. The blow off top, maybe 30-40.
Now the dilemma. How to sell. Will it be hard for buyers to check every single date on coins to determine copper content? Will weight make shipping buys cost prohibitive? Who will the best to sell to? Just trying to think long term here because that is what I think we all should expect for any real profit, unlike precious metals which are easier to figure out since we have a history to look at. Could this all be a waste of our time? Not tryingto bring down the room just been pondering this latley since my hoarding has shifted into high gear. Cheers. Miguel J. Copperhead.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/08/2007 : 17:30:06
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My guess:
The world of selling is different now with the rise of the internet. Craigslist (digital classifieds) and ebay give the seller of metals, precious or base, an advantage that was not around when gold and silver were shooting up in price in the 80's.
For the vaguely aware and nearly clueless crowd, they will be standing in long lines trying to sell their base and precious metals, while those in the know will be searching the net for the best buyer (not just the best price, but an established trustworthy buyer, not some fly by night outfit.)
Just my opinion, play it like a poker player, take some money off the table when things start to heat up. Get your profits when you can get 50-75% of what you paid for the precious metals, maybe 100%-150% for base. Sell off as the market rises (5%-10% at a time) and for goodness sakes don't get taken in by the mistress of ruin, Greed. I think Warren Buffett said that he makes his money because he sells too soon. Sounds like a decent investment strategy (and exit plan).
Just my thoughts, other and possibly better ideas are welcome.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 07/08/2007 : 18:45:45
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Good topic. Seldom is the topic of when to sell talked about over these forums. There are some who are waiting for the STHTF and the idea of cashing in their metals for FRNs doesn't make sense to them. Others seem to always be holding out for that higher price and often miss the peak price. Once a commondity starts to fall in price it seems to fall much quicker than its climb.
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Fanaticism is doubling one's efforts, yet forgetting one's purpose.
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 07/08/2007 : 21:05:42
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Great topic Stillinthegame. My theory is that prices will rise over time, but noone can really accurately project the future. Ebay and Craig's list make it easy to sell, but you will never get full market price for your base metals. You have to discount it somewhat in order to make the purchase attractive to the buyers.. everyone always wants a deal. The demand would have to really heat up for you to get close to spot price. Right now the market is still developing and somewhat weak. I take a diversified approach.. I currently sell off part of my hoard at current prices and use the extra capital to increase the size of my hoard beyond what I could simply buy and hold with the money I can set aside for investing on a weekly basis. I obviously won't be getting peak prices on the copper I sell but by converting it into capital and then converting it back into unsorted pennies I will come out better in the long run.. plus I will have taken some of my money off the table.
There is a story from the old days of the robber barons that J.P. Morgan and some of his buddies almost controlled the stock market. Folks used to ask him.. "Mr. Morgan, Mr. Morgan.. what is the stock market going to do?" He would look them in the eye and say "It will fluctuate" And he was always right. Metals markets are the same.. noone can really tell the future. We can all make our best guesses and take action to back them up.. but what if the market for base metals doubles.. we all start to get really happy.. then we discover that the price for everything else tripled.
"Preserving coinage.. 2 tons at a time"
HoardCode0.1:M48/14USCA:US1Cu639700:US5Ni2400:CA5Ni46 |
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TenBears
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1021 Posts |
Posted - 07/09/2007 : 07:45:02
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| Just a thought: India and China, countries with populations in excess of one BILLION people, have both gotten very busy building infrastructure over the last decade. This building has helped fuel the rise in prices for PM and BM. In addition, the world population is increasing due in large part to Third World countries. To me, then, it seems reasonable that prices for metals, including our beloved copper, will continue to rise with increasing world demand. I suppose we (Americans) could elect a government that would exercise some fiscal responsibility, quit printing money like toilet paper, and eventually have a strong dollar again. If such happened, the price of copper would likely decline against the value of a stronger dollar. But, that seems unlikely in this day and age. |
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 07/09/2007 : 11:42:13
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quote:
Originally posted by texcattlerancher
I suppose we (Americans) could elect a government that would exercise some fiscal responsibility, quit printing money like toilet paper, and eventually have a strong dollar again. If such happened, the price of copper would likely decline against the value of a stronger dollar. But, that seems unlikely in this day and age.
I think you are right. The odds of us electing a fiscally responsible government are really long. Probably about the same as the mint starting to strike a silver center cent. Such a government wouldn't be very popular with the people either, even if (or because) they were doing the right thing.
I think the ancient Greeks said Democracy as a form of government is doomed to failure. The public will always vote for the politicians that will allow them to feed the most at the "public trough." So it will always fail due to fiscal irresponsibility.
"Preserving coinage.. 2 tons at a time"
HoardCode0.1:M48/14USCA:US1Cu639700:US5Ni2400:CA5Ni46 |
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19 Posts |
Posted - 07/09/2007 : 13:28:08
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| May I hone in on a specific topic. The question of how anyone will know that what we are selling them are pre-82's? If to a collector I guess they would just look, but it seems the pennies would have to be worth at least .50-1.00 to make it worth their while. If that's the case we may have to wait a very long time for copper prices to go that high. Is that what you all are banking on to happen, a 30 to 40 fold eventual increase? Im holding silver and am counting on just a 10 fold increase over the next decade. For melting purposes how would they know? Come to think of it how do they currently know with pre-65 90% coins? Am I being paranoid here? Just trying to look at this thing logically if we plan on cashing in some day. I don't plan on holding 20-30 years. 15 at the most. I guess Im trying to say that yes it's good to be diversified with copper if you believe in the commodities bull which I do but the pay-off seams unrealistic with this kind of copper holding(pennies). I know this is a fun hobby but Im looking for an eventual way to cash out with a profit. Don't plan on leavin any to the kids as there are none. Michael In Atlanta just tryin to stir the copper-pot. Discuss. Cheers |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/09/2007 : 17:46:51
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I think at 5 times face value for copper cents will be the indicator to sell, and a 10 times face value will be a Strong Indicator to sell, And Fast!
Silver is supposed to (and this is the key word here, Supposed to) start a decline in prodution v consumption in 2011. As with any prediction, we must realize that the predictors of such things are usually using a defective crystal ball. A magic 8 ball would be just as accurate (and if the predictions are wrong, then the super silver bugs will be behind the 8 ball.)
As mentioned above, 5x face, sell pennies, 10x face, sell pennies FAST. I have my doubts that common copper cents will go above 15X face before a copper bubble forms and then bursts. Selling a 1¢ coin for a dime, take the money and run.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 07/09/2007 17:51:02 |
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 07/09/2007 : 21:18:01
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quote:
Originally posted by stillinthegame
May I hone in on a specific topic. The question of how anyone will know that what we are selling them are pre-82's? If to a collector I guess they would just look, but it seems the pennies would have to be worth at least .50-1.00 to make it worth their while. If that's the case we may have to wait a very long time for copper prices to go that high. Is that what you all are banking on to happen, a 30 to 40 fold eventual increase? Im holding silver and am counting on just a 10 fold increase over the next decade. For melting purposes how would they know? Come to think of it how do they currently know with pre-65 90% coins? Am I being paranoid here? Just trying to look at this thing logically if we plan on cashing in some day. I don't plan on holding 20-30 years. 15 at the most. I guess Im trying to say that yes it's good to be diversified with copper if you believe in the commodities bull which I do but the pay-off seams unrealistic with this kind of copper holding(pennies). I know this is a fun hobby but Im looking for an eventual way to cash out with a profit. Don't plan on leavin any to the kids as there are none. Michael In Atlanta just tryin to stir the copper-pot. Discuss. Cheers
It will be very easy to tell if what is being sold is Copper or not. We would do it the same way we do now when I sell. Usually people like to buy from sellers with established reputations for delivering what they say they are selling. The buyer could quickly run the entire purchase through a Rydale Coin Artist machine to verify purity. That machine will sort the copper from the zinc at 18-20,000 coins per hour. Or if they do not have one of those available they can pull several random samples out of the batch and check them with a digital scale. Also, a certain # of copper pennies is going to weigh a certain amount. If the weight is light then you would know that it is not pure copper or the count is short. Checking the count is easy. I have counters that will count up to 2000 coins per minute.
"Preserving coinage.. 2 tons at a time"
HoardCode0.1:M48/14USCA:US1Cu639700:US5Ni2400:CA5Ni46 |
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myfundsarelow
Penny Collector Member
USA
388 Posts |
Posted - 07/09/2007 : 22:38:32
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| HELLO ALL my copper cents are all in .50 cent wrappers cents are then put into $25.00 dollar boxes that the bank gives me with the unsearched cents i dump the unsorted cents into large bucket from cat food each box is marked with amount & weight of the cents all ready to roll PEACE! |
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just carl
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
601 Posts |
Posted - 07/12/2007 : 17:19:10
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I've said this before but I'll say it again. All metals will soon enough go down in value. Just way to many other materials are being produced to replace them makeing it easier to manipulate, lighter, easier to repair and lots of other reasons. Now as as example many, many miles of copper wire for communications is vanishing due to wireless systems. Many items that used to be of metals are now of plastics such as most of your cars. Most plumbing, conduits, etc for home construction is going plastics. More people use PVC pipes for many outdoor items. I built my trelis out of PVC. Many outdoor lighing has gone solar. I know all mine are solar. As metals become used less and less, thier prices will drop. Even countries like China will see the advantage of lighter materials and stop using metals. What surprized me the most of metal replacments was when I purchased a box of .38's and instead of a brass or nickel casing, it was plastic. The bullets were also non lead. Ever notice how many guns are being produced out of non metallic substances?
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Tourney64
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1035 Posts |
Posted - 07/16/2007 : 21:33:12
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I agree on one front - within the plumbing industry, copper is currently being replaced with plastic pipe....What do they make plastic out of....Oil. Oil hit another all time high today....May be switching back to copper.
There are only 3 basic elements that are great conductors, and have low electrical resistance. These materials get used in all electrical applications. There are no replacements for these elements - Copper (Cu), Silver (Ag), Gold (Au). Silver has the best electrical properties of the 3 with Copper a close 2nd. Which one would you use to wire your house?
You must be logged in to see this link.
There is only so much copper in the world. I keep seeing all the labor strikes in these mining companies. The wages keep going up, and If the price of copper drops, the mines will be forced to stop/slow production due to the labor costs. The lack of production will then drive the cost of copper higher. I think the price of copper will continue to rise for years to come. |
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43 Posts |
Posted - 07/17/2007 : 00:02:27
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I jokingly told my parents to get a new roof and make it a copper one. they could tear it off in 10 years and it would pay for itself and then some!
"Preserving coinage by the pound" |
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just carl
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
601 Posts |
Posted - 07/29/2007 : 18:42:40
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There are only 3 basic elements that are great conductors, and have low electrical resistance. These materials get used in all electrical applications. There are no replacements for these elements - Copper (Cu), Silver (Ag), Gold (Au). Silver has the best electrical properties of the 3 with Copper a close 2nd. Which one would you use to wire your house?
Absolutely not true. One of the greatest uses of wires USED to be Copper or even Aluminum. Presently for most all communications it is either wireless (see what your kids are doing) and fiber optics. We recently replaced all ComEd Substation communications with fiber optics. Many, many miles of copper wires were either ripped up or left to rot in place as abandoned. Many, many organizations use Microwave systems and that is in the air, not with wires. Wiring your house? Note your wireless keyboard, infra red wireless computer mouse, TV remote and many other items no longer using metal wiring. As for some other replacements for Copper for instance is Aluminum for grounding systems. Note that in many areas the soil is acidic and Copper grounding systems become Sulfated into a green crystaline structure that carries no ground faults. Where Copper USED to be used for Lighting arrester cabling, we now use Aluminum. Naturally the AWG rating is much higher for aluminum but the lastability and availability is much greater. Now go to a hardware store and look at BX with a grounding wire inside. Hey, it too is Aluminum.
As for other substances that carry a current, the electrical industry is very hard at work to produce a non metallic substance for carrying large ampacities and voltages for large distances to eleminate multiple sub-stations. Contacts on large Electrical systems such as a 6,9KV Switchgear are slowly going away from those so called necessity, only current carrying materials.
And here is just one more thing to ponder. Note all computers on Earth use Silicon, not metals. Without one of the most abundant substances on Earth, Silicon, there would be no computers regardless of metals.
Carl |
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Cerulean
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
993 Posts |
Posted - 07/30/2007 : 08:01:34
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I agree that copper for communications purposes is fading away, but copper is still in demand for power transmission. Aluminum might be a cheap substitute for electrical wiring, but poses a significant fire hazard when used for wiring! I've learned this from shopping for a house... most home insurance policies are wary of the 1970s experiment with aluminum wiring.
I've noticed one area where aluminum wiring is catching on... electronics. I've spent many an afternoon disassembling DVD players, projectors, flatbed scanners and the like. Silicon is used on circuit boards now, but the individual boards and non-electronic components are still wired together. Hoping these wires contain salvagable copper, I tear the insulation open to see aluminum more often than not. I suspect there's a reason I get these aluminum-laden devices from the dumpster, but not nice copper-wired ones.
Fiber optic lines only transit information, not power. You cannot make an electric motor, generator, or transformer out of fiber-optic cables. You need a material that will induce a magnetic field, and it'll be a long time before experimental non-metallic materials come at a cost competitive with copper, even if the price of copper rises.
Although wireless/infrared technology may trade frequency for metal, it is a less efficient use of power for the gain of convenience. The higher energy input is the hidden cost. I still use a wired keyboard and mouse at home and at work because I hate changing batteries. Are you familiar with the amount of metals in batteries? Most contain zinc, lithium, or nickel. All that wiring we're avoiding by going wireless is just hidden in the battery.
RUNNING TOTAL
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3217 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
1012 coppers (1959-1982) 23.8%
25 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins! |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 07/30/2007 : 20:00:11
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Anyone really think mining will be able to keep up much less pull ahead?
You must be logged in to see this link.
****************
Fanaticism is doubling one's efforts, yet forgetting one's purpose.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/30/2007 : 20:45:21
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Present Copper uses might decline from new non-copper materials, but will the world ever give up on copper and all of its uses?
The shipping industry relies on cupro-nickel for ships, the navies of the world build submarines with Cu-Ni, they are not likely to stop since the alloy has proven itself reliable.
Brass fittings for ships will still be in demand in the future. Compasses, chronometers (ship's clocks), and the like that will never be fitted onto a ship but instead will be sold to those who love anything to do with sailing and shipping will still be made form brass (copper).
And what of those individuals who choose brass for religious services? Will there be no demand for brass idols, brass Buddahs, brass candleholders or incense holders to show reverence to shrines in the home?
Brass, the imitation gold, is often sold in the form of bars so those who follow feng shei can have a representation of wealth to perhaps lead to wealth?
Plastics may have their uses, but PVC pipe deteriorates when exposed to sunlight, the chemical makeup of PVC may someday be viewed as a health hazard as asbestos now is, who knows what the future holds for the newly discovered materials?
Will platic replace brass or copper pots and pans?
Will plastic replace copper or bronze in the making of statues?
Copper, nickel, tin, zinc and even lead will still be used by the "modern" world in spite of the views of the contrary.
Whenever I hear of the amazing or new discoveries or how everything we know will be changed forever, I am forced to think back to the cover stories of the Popular Mechanics Magazines form the 1930's to the 1950's, which predicted all of the amazing new discoveries that would revolutionize life as we know it, only these great inventions seem to have mysteriously disappeared. Only a fraction have made it to improve our modern life.
Besides, those who are so quick to dismiss the use of metals sound like the Keynesians who still refer to gold as the barbarous relic.
Metals are not going away, not until they can make a submarine, an airplane and a space shuttle out of plastics and ceramics. (The space shuttle may be Covered in ceramics but its engines, superstructure, and interior components are still metal.)
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 07/30/2007 20:51:31 |
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deleted
42 Posts |
 Posted - 08/14/2007 : 16:15:21
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quote:
Originally posted by stillinthegame
Now the dilemma. How to sell. Will it be hard for buyers to check every single date on coins to determine copper content? Will weight make shipping buys cost prohibitive? Who will the best to sell to? Just trying to think long term here because that is what I think we all should expect for any real profit, unlike precious metals which are easier to figure out since we have a history to look at. Could this all be a waste of our time? Not tryingto bring down the room just been pondering this latley since my hoarding has shifted into high gear. Cheers. Miguel J. Copperhead.
1. No, buyers should know how to tell, if they're experienced, they'll either have a machine or know how they look alone.
2. Possibily, as USPS has a good monopoly over mail, BUT luckily because it'll be big and heavy, commercial competitors are more than happy to do the service.
3. People who are aware, ourselves, industry.
My personal advice Don't hoard too much if you're concerned about selling, as any serious investor would, DIVERSIFY. Only invest what you can afford to lose. I'm currently moving from copper towards silver. Luckily, you know a copper penny will either be worth something more, or nothing more, it can't be worth less than it is now no matter what. |
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deleted
42 Posts |
 Posted - 08/14/2007 : 16:19:17
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quote:
Originally posted by Cerulean
I agree that copper for communications purposes is fading away, but copper is still in demand for power transmission. Aluminum might be a cheap substitute for electrical wiring, but poses a significant fire hazard when used for wiring! I've learned this from shopping for a house... most home insurance policies are wary of the 1970s experiment with aluminum wiring.
I've noticed one area where aluminum wiring is catching on... electronics. I've spent many an afternoon disassembling DVD players, projectors, flatbed scanners and the like. Silicon is used on circuit boards now, but the individual boards and non-electronic components are still wired together. Hoping these wires contain salvagable copper, I tear the insulation open to see aluminum more often than not. I suspect there's a reason I get these aluminum-laden devices from the dumpster, but not nice copper-wired ones.
Fiber optic lines only transit information, not power. You cannot make an electric motor, generator, or transformer out of fiber-optic cables. You need a material that will induce a magnetic field, and it'll be a long time before experimental non-metallic materials come at a cost competitive with copper, even if the price of copper rises.
Although wireless/infrared technology may trade frequency for metal, it is a less efficient use of power for the gain of convenience. The higher energy input is the hidden cost. I still use a wired keyboard and mouse at home and at work because I hate changing batteries. Are you familiar with the amount of metals in batteries? Most contain zinc, lithium, or nickel. All that wiring we're avoiding by going wireless is just hidden in the battery.
RUNNING TOTAL
--------------------------
3217 zincs (1982-2007) 75.5%
1012 coppers (1959-1982) 23.8%
25 wheats (1920-1958)
6 Canadian (1968-1995)
1 dime (2004)
Wanna take money away from the Fed? Spend dollar coins!
You're right on the money (no pun intended).
But yes, our economy is just SO f#$KED that copper wires are worth stealing. Aluminum is too light and too easy to burn. With that said, copper and silver will ALWAYS be the priority metals for electricity. |
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future copper prices and dilemma..
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