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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
 Posted - 06/29/2007 : 20:13:33
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Time to start a new page, last one was getting pretty long.
While the following isn't news since it is a few months old, it could be considered news if you never read or heard about it before.
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Practical Tool Containing Silver Nanoparticles Helps Battle Infectious Diseases
A new low-tech product made from high-tech materials, the Handler anti-microbial handheld door opening device, becomes one of the first truly practical tools designed to help individuals fight the perennial battle against infectious diseases. It does so by breaking the cycle of transmission and leaving the dreaded culprits at the door -- literally. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) tell us that common colds, flus and staph infections, to name a few, are often transmitted as a result of intimate contact with carriers as well as contact with common surfaces that we share with them. As a first line of defense, the Handler, which fits conveniently on your key-chain, is a handheld device with a deployable gripping arm that allows users to interact with the most egregious of disease transmitting surfaces like restroom door handles, elevator buttons, and ATM keypads without actually making direct contact with them.
What makes the Handler so unique is that its rubber and plastic components are infused with nano silver particles which effectively kill 98% of all single-celled organisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi) on contact. The Handler's button-activated rubberized hook was designed to easily pull open doors, even heavy ones requiring up to 60 lbs of force, and it is agile enough to actuate most of the public restroom levers, buttons and faucet handles so reviled by millions of germ-conscious users across America.
Maker Enterprises LLC, a Los Angeles-based product development company led by brothers Paul and Jeff Metzger, are introducing their self-sanitizing device after several independent laboratory tests were conducted to verify the effectiveness of the nano silver particles in the Handler. "Even with impressive docomeentation given to us by our manufacturer, we still wanted to be absolutely sure that the performance of the nano silvers met our own expectations, especially since my brother and I were going to be the Handler's very first real customers," says Paul Metzger, a former public defender turned entrepreneur. "We felt that if it worked to our satisfaction that there would be millions of people like us who would much rather put their hands on a Handler than a public restroom door handle," his brother Jeff Metzger adds. "We knew that, based on market research, as many as 60% of Americans had the same concerns that we did, especially with the impending avian flu situation on our collective horizon."
Posted December 11th, 2006
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Silver Nanocoatings Make Effective Heat Reflectors for Buildings
A thin mist of silver, packed in oxide or nitrite, settles on the window pane like a transparent film. No more than a few nanometers thick, this layer is translucent yet capable of deflecting heat. The sun-protection nanofilm prevents rooms behind large glass facades from overheating by separating the incident sun rays into short-wave light rays and long-wave heat rays – unlike conventional thermal barrier coatings, which merely filter out and reflect the long-wave heat rays.
Nanofilms make high demands on the coating process, as Dr. Bernd Szyszka of the Fraunhofer Institute for Surface Engineering and Thin Films IST in Braunschweig confirms: “In the case of conventional thermal barrier coatings, differences of up to five per cent in the coating thickness are not a problem,” he says. “But the maximum tolerance for sun protection films is only one per cent.”
These films have already been produced on an industrial scale for several years, generally using the sputtering technique. This process takes place in a vacuum chamber, where the energetic ions of a plasma shoot atoms from a silver plate. The atoms are deposited on a passing pane of glass, and accomeulate to form a wafer-thin film. Glass panes of just under 20 square meters in size can be fully coated in 45 seconds using this method. It really works – “and yet to this day, the process is still a bit like black magic, influenced by variables that are not fully understood,” says Bernd Szyszka. Consequently, it took a long series of test runs and a great deal of experience to achieve satisfying results.
Scientists at the Fraunhofer IST have now demystified the events occurring in the vacuum chamber. The new DOGMA software comprehensively simulates the complex processes taking place during plasma coating. This makes it possible to accurately calculate the application of thin-film systems, be it on large panes of glass or on thimble-sized filters for optical signal transmission. As a result, plant engineers, thin-film developers and manufacturers can optimize plants and processes not only at the planning stage, but also later on during production.
Posted November 22nd, 2006
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Also noteworthy is the site
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the A to Z of metals.
Lists some of the new developments and breakthroughs in the use of metals.
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Big Funds Sell Precious Metals for Annual Spring Whack
...(At least somebody tried to warn us, though a little late in raising the alarm.)
Excerpt:
Gold and silver markets took their annual spring price whack creating an instant out-pouring of analyst teeth-gnashing, whining and shouts of ‘The metals rally is over for good.’ We respectfully suggest precious metals are only in the first rally phase and have years to go before finding any kind of a top.
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UPDATE 5-Strikes support copper, nickel sets 4-mth low
By Pratima Desai
LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose on Friday to near two-week highs as strike threats outweighed the risk aversion that had disrupted markets earlier this week, while nickel touched a four-month low.
"Tight fundamentals are reasserting themselves, there's not too much risk-aversion selling at the moment," a trader on the LME floor said.
Copper for three months delivery <MCU3> on the London Metal Exchange climbed as high as $7,640 a tonne, its strongest since June 18, and traders said more money could be heading for the market in July.
That and the various strike threats around the world might be enough to prevent the market going down much from current levels, LME broker Triland Metals said in a market report.
Strikes and threats to supplies at various copper mines in South America, Canada and elsewhere around the world have raised worries about copper supplies
The metal used extensively in the power and construction industries ended at $7,560 after a little profit-taking but was still $19 above Thursday's close.
"Labour unrest everywhere from Peru and Chile through to Canada, Zambia and Poland has hit the newswires during June," consultants CRU Group said in a research note.
"Whilst copper producers have collectively played down the impact...the market remains highly vulnerable to price spikes given the potential for significant disruption."
Expectations of higher base metals prices boosted mining stocks.
London-listed miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Kazakhmys, Anglo American, and Xstrata were up between 0.64 and 1.3 percent, while the FTSE index was up 0.56 percent, in line with European stocks that rose after tame United States inflation data reassured investors.
DOWNWARD SPIRAL
Investor confidence, battered in recent days by trouble in credit markets, appears to be stronger. That has lifted base metals, as has falling stockpiles of unusued metal.
Copper stocks in LME warehouses are at 114,700 tonnes,
less than three days of global consumption and the lowest since October, while stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.6 percent last week to 90,167 tonnes.
Low lead stocks in LME warehouses at 45,075 tonnes, little more than two days of global consumption, also boosted the metal used mainly in batteries.
Lead was at $2,658 a tonne from $2,650 on Thursday. Earlier this week the metal touched a contract high of $2,745, having gained 64 percent since the end of last year as the market factored in output cuts in China.
However, a generally bullish mood did not permeate the nickel market, where participants focused on stainless steel production cuts in China. About two-thirds of global nickel production is used for making stainless steel.
"The stainless steel production outlook is quite weak in the near term," said Max Layton, analyst at Macquarie Bank.
"Stainless steel stocks have reduced in value and producers are better off selling those than producing more. It's a downward spiral."
Nickel touched $35,350 a tonne, its lowest since February 13 and a loss of around 30 percent since the record high of $51,800 seen on May 9. It ended the day at $36,200 from $36,750.
Aluminium was a touch lower at $2,728 from $2,740 on Thursday, zinc was $25 softer at $3,355 and tin was at $13,850/13,900 from $13,875.
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Pig nickel (similar to pig iron, impure, unprocessed, needs to be refined before being used) continues to have a stranglehold on market intelligence. The production of this new supply, went from relieving the nickel supply deficit a few months ago, to a force to be reckoned with as demand has slumped. The big question for the market has now become - at what point will pig nickel production in China become unprofitable? It is an interesting situation and one difficult to monitor, as its production is a new phenomena, and gathering accurate information about its impact, sketchy.
From the stainless steel site, opinion
(- we think the market is trying to decipher the implications of what the managing director of European Nickel told the Dow Jones yesterday. We have told a few readers, that in our opinion, the stainless market could handle $12/lb nickel, albeit grudgingly. If the cost to produce pig nickel is as low as Mr Purkiss says, then....?
Sorry, that is not a forecast on our part. We see more downside potential, but as the price lowers, pig nickel production is threatened on the supply side, and substitution risks are lessened on the demand side. The market is gauged by supply and demand and every price change has a cause and effect on this ratio.
The market's normal summer slowdown has been exacerbated by the falling price of nickel. It is a price trend that will feed off itself and create is own downward trend until demand kicks in to stabilize the activity.
Yet no stainless producer wants to buy nickel at a price that could potentially make them uncompetitive in a few weeks time. Thus the uncertainty remains.)
...(Normal summer slowdown for steel makers, summer slowdown for PMs, looks like a long hot summer ahead of us.)
Copyright/courtesy Dow Jones Newswire - "A reduction in canceled warrants amid recent stock builds have LME nickel under pressure, says UBS. "Nickel prices have entered an adjustment phase due to the impact from a softer supply-demand situation for stainless steel globally," the bank says, noting a recent slide in European stainless steel prices. Benchmark Type 304 CRC German base prices have fallen to 1270/t in June vs 1600/t in April, the bank notes."
Mfg Cost Of Chinese Pig Iron Sets Floor For Nickel Price-Exec - "The production cost of nickel pig iron in China has set a new floor for nickel prices, Simon Purkiss, managing director of European Nickel, told Dow Jones Newswires Thursday."
China Nonferrous Metal Group Starts Nickel Project in Burma - "Sources from China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. say the company has gained regulatory approval to start constructing its nickel project in Burma with the financial support from the Export-Import Bank of China and China Development Bank."
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Gold, Silver Rise as Dollar Slide Boosts Demand for the Metals
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
June 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gold and silver rose in New York after a decline in the value of the dollar against the euro boosted the appeal of precious metals as alternative investments.
Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the dollar, which today dropped the most against the euro in a week. The dollar was also lower against a basket of six major currencies. Before today, gold and the euro have gained 1.9 percent this year.
``The currencies are keeping gold afloat,'' said Marty McNeill, a trader at R.F. Lafferty Inc. in New York. ``You can get a minor rally off the weaker dollar.''
Gold futures for August delivery rose $1.80, or 0.3 percent, to $652.20 an ounce at 8:56 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price is down 2.2 percent this month, the second straight monthly loss.
Silver futures for September delivery rose 7.5 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $12.58 an ounce on the Comex. Before today, the price had fallen 2.9 percent this year. The metal is down 6.7 percent this month.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 06/30/2007 : 18:31:16
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DB: Low copper stocks, robust Chinese demand forces higher forecasts
Low copper stocks and continued robust demand from China has forced Deutsche Bank to rethink its price prediction.
Stocks stored in London Metal Exchange certified warehouses across the globe have steadily declined since February to eight-month lows and now represent less than three days of consumption.
Deutsche lifted its copper forecast for 2007 by 9 pct to 6,830 usd per tonne from a previous estimate, while the bank's commodities analysts anticipate the 2008 copper price to average 6,614 usd per tonne, up 20 pct from an earlier prediction.
Copper prices on the LME are currently around 7,555 usd per tonne.
"We remain confident of underlying Chinese commodity demand," said the bank in a note.
"The greatest risk to the copper market is an extended period of decline in demand as a result of the US housing cycle," added the report.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently pegged a 140,000-tonne market deficit for the first quarter of 2007.
"Chinese imports of concentrates and scrap remained strong as smelters continue to import aggressively in order to feed into the country's massive industrialisation," Deutsche said.
Elsewhere, the bank raised its aluminium forecast 2 pct to 2,680 usd per tonne for 2007 and up 2 pct to 2,285 usd in 2008. Lead is likely to average 2,104 usd per tonne in 2007, up 26 pct, and 1,709 usd in 2008, a rise of 24 pct. Nickel should average 40,798 usd per tonne this year, up 5 pct from the last forecast, while zinc is thought to average 3,425 usd -- a rise of 2 pct compared with the last prediction.
"We expect robust global growth to persist into 2008 helped by strong emerging market demand that is occurring from industrialisation," the report said. "We doubt the ability of supply to keep adequate pace with this unrelenting demand."
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Russia reduces gold production 1% in 5 mths
Russia reduced gold production 1% year-on-year to 39.794 tonnes in January-May, the Russian Gold Producers' Union said, quoting a figure for mine production, incidental or byproduct gold and secondary production or recoveries from scrap.
Mine production fell 2.6% to 32.378 tonnes and incidental production fell 0.5% to 5.299 tonnes, but secondary production jumped 27.7% to 2.186 tonnes.
Mine output fell in the Khabarovsk and Krasnoyarsk territories, the Magadan and Chita regions and the Republic of Yakutia, but it grew in the Amur, Irkutsk, Kamchatka and Sverdlovsk regions and in Chukotka.
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I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 06/30/2007 : 19:54:20
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Nickel ‘Chicken Littles’ say the sky is falling
Date Published | Jun. 14, 2007
The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Or so it seems to the many metallic “Chicken Littles” out there highlighting the plummeting price of nickel. The shinny grayish-white metal hit a three month low on Tuesday briefly dipping to $39,800 per tonne (US) on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for delivery in three months.
Substitution, nickel pig iron, and summer slowdowns are all combining to pop the nickel bubble.
We all knew these “nose bleed” prices could not last – LME cash price on May 16, 2007 was $24.59. But after a quarter century of depressing levels – the record low was in December 1998 at $1.76 – who could begrudge the then struggling producers their time in the sun.
Even a drop to $10 a pound, as some have predicted this year due to increasing production and declining use, would still let nickel miners make enormous profits.
There is no doubt that lower grade and cheaper stainless steel producers are not using nickel at these high costs. And some substitution to other metals is happening in less essential products like cutlery and home products.
However, high-end industrial uses like oil drill rigs, chemical refineries and jet engines – just to mention a few – need the nickel’s unique corrosion resistant and high-temperature properties that are not found in other metals.
The Chinese are resorting to nickel pig iron, which is a lower grade nickel product that is expensive to produce.
Laterite nickel ore is imported mainly from New Caledonia, Indonesia, and the Philippines and processed in small scale blast or electric furnaces. However, this is not a long term source and is uneconomical if the price of nickel goes below $10 a pound. It is estimated that Chinese nickel pig iron production for 2007 will range from 70 to 90 thousand kilotonnes.
Who knows if prices will rise or fall?
Last week, New York based Amine Bouchentouf, the author of Commodities for Dummies, interviewed me on the phone wondering where I thought the price of nickel was heading.
Who really knows the answer to that “billion dollar” question?
For the past year, well-paid analysts have routinely been upgrading and down-grading the average price of nickel.
Half of them have been right and the other half embarrassingly wrong. In truth, the nickel industry is in uncharted waters. No one in a million years would have predicted these levels.
Unexpected geo-political events, continued technical delays or increasing capital costs all have the potential to impact the development of new projects. In late May, CVRD Inco announced that the Vermelho laterite nickel project in Brazil would be further delayed due to environmental and infrastructure issues.
In my estimation, this nickel commodity super-cycle really got started in 2003 when exploding Chinese demand first began to be noticed in tandem with an unexpected strike at CVRD Inco and coincidentally, the start of the Iraq war. You cannot fight a modern war without using enormous quantities of nickel.
Citigroup forecasts that global primary nickel demand this year will rise eight percent while the International Nickel Study Group stated that production will exceed demand by 70,000 tonnes.
In a May 28, 2007 news release Patricia Mohr, vice-president, economics and commodity market specialist at Scotiabank stated “The recent acquisition of Canada’s two largest nickel producers, as well as a host of prospective smaller transactions, reflects expectations that the international supply/demand balance for nickel will remain in deficit through the first half of 2008.”
Yet one furnace breakdown, shortage of rain for hydro power or unexpected strike in Norilsk, Thompson, Indonesia or New Caledonia could quickly throw any of these projections out the window.
Even though the current state of the nickel market is very volatile, 100 or 200 or 300 million Chinese people migrating from the countryside to urban centres over the next two decades – the largest human migration in the history of mankind – will ensure a voracious demand for nickel as well as copper, iron ore and other base metals.
There will be bumps along the way, but the Sudbury Basin and the rest of Northern Ontario – including many impoverished Aboriginal communities – can benefit from that Chinese migration for the next generation or two, depending on the right provincial mineral policies.
CVRD Inco’s recent commitment to spend $400 million to open the Totten Mine and $45 million to further explore and study the Copper Cliff Deep project is just the beginning.
During the past few decades with lower global demand for nickel, the company had ignored many good B and C-grade deposits to focus on the richest ore bodies. It will take many years to bring new mines into development, but they will be built.
Many feel Xstrata’s Nickel Rim South mine may become one of the richest in the history of the Sudbury Basin due to the high nickel, copper and PGM grades.
FNX Mining Company Inc. recently quadrupled its resource base in the Basin. This is just the first inning.
And with resource nationalism throughout the world, Sudbury is one of the most politically secure places on the planet to invest the billions needed to develop new nickel production.
The local economy is booming. Sudbury has the lowest apartment vacancy rate in all of Ontario. Regardless of some minor problems – like a greedy provincial government not sharing higher nickel mining taxes with this community – the city’s future is so bright that everyone should be wearing shades. Something to think about while you are enjoying time by the lakes this summer.
Stan Sudol is a Toronto-based communications consultant and policy analyst who writes extensively on mining issues.
stan.sudol@sympatico.ca
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Fanaticism is doubling one's efforts, yet forgetting one's purpose.
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/02/2007 : 19:07:09
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Gold up over $8 on safe-haven buying, dollar drop
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose more than $8 an ounce Monday to close near their highest level in almost two weeks as terrorism concerns and a weaker U.S. dollar helped boost the metal's appeal as an investment hedge.
"All the ingredients for a rally were there but nothing happened until today," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com.
"The dollar is falling fast now, the oil price is sitting on $70 and looks like staying there or rising. Gold had to run up, despite any efforts to hold it down," he said in e-mailed comments.
"What is clear now is that there is force to this rise," he said. "If more consolidation occurs, it will simply power up this rise."
Gold's benchmark August contract gained 1.3%, or $8.30, to finish at $659.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its strongest closing level since June 20. Gold futures gained 50 cents an ounce on Friday but finished last month with a loss of 2.4%.
"Bolstered by a significant erosion in the dollar ... and geopolitical tremors prompted by the London and Glasgow terror attacks, the decision to go long gold in the short-term was made much easier for market participants," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in a note to clients....
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Zimbabwe`s gold mines cut production to 20% of capacity
Most of Zimbabwe`s gold producers are operating at a fifth of capacity because the central bank is delaying paying them for their output.
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe owes miners about US$17 million for gold already delivered, the chamber of mines, which represents most of the southern African nation`s largest mining companies, said in an e-mailed report.
The central bank is the sole buyer of Zimbabwean gold.
The world`s highest inflation rate has pushed many of Zimbabwe`s miners close to collapse as they struggle to contain costs.
President Robert Mugabe`s seizure of commercial farms since 2000 has caused food and foreign currency shortages.
“Some gold producers have indicated that they have not been paid since November, December 2006,`` the chamber of mines said.
“Although some payments were made in June, the amounts were small, in the region of US$50,000 per producer.``
Zimbabwe`s inflation reached 4,530% in May, according to NMBZ Holdings Ltd, a local bank.
Official figures haven`t been released by the government since April.
Costs continue to soar, the chamber said, citing a doubling of power prices in June, a 25% increase in wages in May and higher prices for spares and chemicals.
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Gold bars purchased for investment double in decade
BANGKOK, July 2 (TNA) – The purchase of gold bars for investment purposes has doubled during the past decade due to the continued price increase, according to an industry executive.
Speaking of gold market conditions 10 years after the baht was floated, Gold Trade Association president Chitti Tangsithipakdi said the price of gold had almost doubled to Bt10,700-10,800 per one baht weight from Bt6,000 a decade ago.
The price of gold peaked at Bt13,000 per one baht weight (15.244 grammes) last year, clearly demonstrating that the gold price situation had changed significantly, he said.
Also, the rules and regulations supervising the sale and purchase of gold had changed.
Previously, imported gold imports were subject to a value-added tax of 7 per cent, but the Finance Ministry later deregulated the practice and allowed the free import of gold.
At the same time, the Consumer Protection Office and the association had jointly increased the quality standard of gold shops, which enabled gold products, particularly gold jewellery, to have an assortment of quality levels and product guarantees.
Mr. Chitti said customers of gold shops are categorised into two groups.
One group purchases a gold jewellery for decoration and another group buys gold bars for investment.
Gold purchased for investment purposed is not subject to VAT, and, according to Mr. Chitti, the popularity of gold bar purchases has more than doubled.
He said the demand for gold bars had increased considerably due to higher gold prices and lower interest rates. (TNA)-E005
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Copper Rises to Six-Week High on Falling Inventories, Dollar
By Choy Leng Yeong
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Copper rose in New York to the highest in more than six weeks on speculation a decline in the value of the dollar will boost demand for the metal used in wiring and plumbing as inventories dwindle.
Copper stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell 1.8 percent to an eight-month low of 112,600 metric tons, the exchange said today. Copper, sold in dollars, has risen 23 percent this year as inventories slumped 38 percent and the U.S. currency fell 2.7 percent against a basket of six major world currencies. The dollar today touched a 26-year low against the British pound and approached the weakest against the euro.
``The lower the dollar is, the cheaper the commodity is for foreign buyers,'' said Michael Smith, president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida. The inventory drop ``is a big deal. That means there's a lot of buyers out there.''
Copper futures for September delivery rose 7.65 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $3.527 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest closing price for a most- active contract since May 15.
A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price for delivery by a specific date.
Inventories also dropped in China, the biggest consumer of the metal. China's stockpiles fell 5.6 percent to 90,617 tons, the biggest decline in six months, according to a weekly report by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 29.
Insatiable Demand
``China's demand is insatiable,'' William Hayden, president of Ivanhoe Philippines Inc., a unit of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., said in an interview today in Manila. ``I can't see any let up in demand, not in China, India, Pakistan and other areas, certainly not for base metals like copper and nickel in the next 10 years.''
Copper rose 2 percent last week amid strikes and labor disputes in Chile and Peru. Contract workers at Chile's state- owned Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, threatened to increase protests that have cut the company's output.
Contract workers, who went on strike June 25, last week temporarily blocked roadways to mines, burned buses and stormed a processing plant in northern Chile to press for higher wages. Protests will worsen unless Codelco negotiates, Cristian Cuevas, president of the Confederation of Copper Workers, said today.
Workers at Southern Copper Corp., the world's fifth-largest producer of the metal, on June 28 suspended a five-day strike in Peru to continue labor talks.
A union at Collahuasi, Chile's third-largest copper mine, said last week it will strike on July 9 to press for higher salaries from mine owners Xstrata Plc and Anglo American Plc.
``The copper strikes and threats of strikes should continue to support the market,'' Mike Rapson, a broker at Man Financial Ltd. in Toronto, said in a note today.
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Lead Rises to Record in London on China Demand; Copper Gains
By Brett Foley and Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Lead rose to a record in London, surpassing aluminum for the first time, as demand from China, the world's largest user, expanded. Copper climbed to a six-week high on speculation strikes may put a squeeze on supplies.
Lead use in China grew 19 percent in the first four months, the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group said in June. Chinese battery producers are stocking up on the metal, said Martin Squires, executive director of global commodities at JPMorgan Securities Ltd. in London.
``I wouldn't sell lead,'' Squires said today in a telephone interview. ``Domestic prices in China continue to go up, and no one wants to export.''
Lead for delivery in three months gained $110, or 4.1 percent, to $2,770 a metric ton as of 5:52 p.m. local time. Earlier, the contract traded at $2,780, the highest ever. Aluminum, the most-traded metal on the London Metal Exchange, added $30, or 1.1 percent, to $2,755 a ton.
Lead has soared 66 percent this year, beating all other metals traded on the LME, as China, also the world's largest producer, reduced exports after the government imposed a 10 percent tax on overseas sales last month.
Ivernia Inc., which supplied 3 percent of global mined output, mostly to the Chinese, may restart shipments from its suspended Magellan mine in Australia as early as the end of the year, the company said on June 28. The company stopped shipments of lead concentrate to smelters March 12 following an investigation into lead poisoning at an Australian port.
LME Copper Stockpiles
Copper rose to a six-week high as declining stockpiles reduced availability, forcing buyers who need metal delivered immediately to pay more than those who don't.
Stockpiles monitored by the LME fell 2,100 tons, or 1.8 percent, to an eight-month low of 112,600 tons, the exchange said today in a daily report. Labor disputes may curb production at mines in Chile owned by Codelco, the world's biggest copper producer, while a strike is looming at Dona Ines de Collahuasi, the country's third-largest mine.
``The amount of metal available to the market is dwindling and falling by the day and that is supporting prices,'' Robin Bhar, a London-based analyst at UBS AG, said today in an interview. ``The potential for supply disruption is also continuing to have an impact.''
Copper for delivery in three months on the LME climbed $175, or 2.3 percent, to $7,735 a ton. A close at that price would be the highest since May 16.
China Inventories
Buyers of copper for immediate delivery paid as much as $123 per ton over the benchmark three-month price, indicating the scarcity of metal close to hand. That premium, representing a market anomaly known as backwardation, is the highest since Jan. 18, 2006.
The amount of metal earmarked for withdrawal from LME warehouses, or so-called canceled warrants, increased 41 percent in the past week to 29,425 tons, the highest since Oct. 5, 2004. That represents 26 percent of total LME inventories, according to exchange data. Canceled warrants dropped 1 percent today.
Inventories also are falling in China, the biggest consumer of the metal. Chinese stockpiles fell 5.6 percent to 90,617 tons, the biggest decline in six months, according to a weekly report by the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 29.
Collahuasi owners Xstrata Plc and Anglo American Plc extended labor talks that delayed the start of a possible strike to July 9 from July 3, union President Hernan Farias said June 29. The mine will produce about 433,000 tons of copper this year, or about 2.6 percent of global supply, according to the state-run Chilean Copper Commission.
Blocked Roadways
Protests will worsen unless Codelco negotiates with contract workers, who went on strike June 25, Cristian Cuevas, president of the Confederation of Copper Workers, which organized the stoppage, said today.
Contract workers last week temporarily blocked roadways to mines, burned buses and stormed a processing plant in northern Chile to press for higher wages. Production at Codelco's Ventanas smelter was halted for a fifth day and at the Radomiro Tomic mine, Codelco's third-largest, a temporary takeover of the plant resulted in damage and cut production by 1,240 metric tons at a cost of $9.3 million, the company said on June 29.
Employees at the Montreal copper refinery owned by Xstrata, the world's fourth-largest producer of the metal, walked off the job on June 11. The refinery, which produced 368,319 metric tons of copper last year, is being operated by managers at 35 percent of capacity, Zug, Switzerland-based Xstrata said June 22.
Consumers in the U.S. may be buying metal to ensure their supply of refined product, UBS's Bhar said.
Nickel dropped $300 to $35,900 a ton. The metal, used in stainless steel, has declined 31 percent since trading at a record $51,800 a ton on May 9.
PT Aneka Tambang, Indonesia's largest nickel miner, said today that it may not be able to achieve a 2007 output target of 20,000 tons because repairs to its newest smelter, which leaked last month, are taking longer than expected.
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Nickel commentary
Rogers Says He's Sold Emerging Markets, Except China -
"Jim Rogers, who predicted the start of the global commodities rally in 1999, said he's sold out of all emerging markets with the exception of China because they're ``over-exploited.''
(quote by Jim Rogers on commodities on 4/5/2007 -
"How can investors profit from the rise of China? -
"The best way to profit from the rise of China is to buy commodities. Because the Chinese NEED commodities.
If you own nickel, they will pay you on time, they will be nice to you, and they will take you out to dinner. You can of course also buy the shares of natural-resource companies, and if you are really good at it and pick the right stocks, you will make a fortune in China.
But then you will have to worry about the stock market, the management, the central bank, labor unions and a hundred other things. If you simply buy nickel, you don't have to worry about any of that." and 6 weeks earlier on 2/28 - "Rogers still characterizes himself a commodities bull. "Oh yes, yes, yes, I still am,” he said when asked about commodities. "Right now I’d be more optimistic about agriculture than say nickel,
but not everything goes up at the same time in the commodities market no more than it does in the stock market.”
and 8 months before that on July 9, 2006 - "StockInterview: What has convinced you to stay in the commodities bull market for this long? Jim Rogers:
Throughout history, bull markets in commodities have lasted a long time.
They’ve averaged about 18 years or 19 years.
The shortest I could find was fifteen years; the longest was 23 years.
It takes a long time to bring new production on stream for commodities.
If you and I decide to go into the lead business today, we’ve got to go find a lead deposit. Then, we’ve got to try to raise money. We’ve got to deal with unions, environmentalists, governments and everybody else. And put in infrastructure.
It takes on average about ten years for any new mine to be opened these days, not just in the U.S., but anywhere in the world.
So, that’s why the bull markets last so long. Eventually, new supplies come to market, and the bull markets have always ended. But, it takes a long, long, long time for that to happen. It’s not like bringing in new shares of a dot com or something, where we go into the garage and start a company and next week we sell stock. Mines and oil fields are much different animals.)
Key quote to keep in mind:
"It takes on average about ten years for any new mine to be opened these days, not just in the U.S., but anywhere in the world."
See Bull market. See Bull market run. Run Bull market, run!
As mentioned above, it takes years to find, then start a mining operation,
"Norilsk Nickel to Build Mines in Chita region in 2009-2015"
Courtesy/copyright Dow Jones Newswire - "LME nickel is up from Friday's low, but negative sentiment continues to drive prices, says Triland. "There's no end yet in sight for a reversal of the past six weeks' slide, with targets still remaining on the downside," Triland adds."
Market Fundamentals Prevail at Last in Nickel Market - "The stainless steel market has been in a state of flux for most of 2007. EU mills started to cut production. The Chinese took similar action. Producers have been seeking alternative sources of nickel units. They have also been promoting nickel free steels. Customers are testing substitute stainless grades." (Higher prices often lead to substitutions when possible.)
Deutsche Bank - Nickel forecast raised to average $40,798 per tonne in 2007 ($18.51b).
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Silver price to remain high on investor interest
The VM Group’s first Silver Book says industrial recycling is higher than thought and industrial end uses for silver are emerging.
Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted: Monday , 02 Jul 2007
JOHANNESBURG -
The silver price is likely to remain in the $10-15/ounce range, despite the fact that the market remains in surplus.
The Fortis/VM Group said in its debut Silver Book publication the silver price has recovered and is following an "upward trajectory" as the silver investor has returned.
Although the silver market continues to be prone to surplus due to levels of aboveground stock, the investor could have absorbed the surplus and demanded even more of the metal - sparking the rise in price.
"We believe the silver price is likely to remain high, while the investment boom in commodities remains intact," said the publication.
Silver mine production will remain largely insensitive to movements in price, as silver is recovered as a by-product of copper, lead, zinc and gold.
Another source of supply, industrial recycling, is likely to be much higher than information in the public domain implies.
Silver recovery from photographic waste is more efficient than previously thought and recycling from electronic waste is likely to become increasingly important in the next three to four years.
However, recycling volumes from the photographic recycling model will decline in future years with the fall in use of traditional photographic film.
On the demand side, a number of new industrial end uses of silver are starting to emerge as commercially viable.
Demand from these sectors will be zero in 2007, but many of these uses will grow rapidly from this zero base line and should be taken into account in any forecasting.
"Collectively they are unlikely to take over where photography has left off in volume terms, but their potential contribution to supporting the silver supply/demand profile should not be underestimated.
"Importantly,
these end uses are unlikely to become the source of large amounts of future recycling of the material," said the Book.
The VM Group does not have complete information on silver coinage, a relative small sector, producer hedge positions, comprising of relatively low figures, and the most recent official disposals of silver.
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Pan African Mining and Freda Rebecca lay off 800 as Zimbabwe's gold mining sector bleeds employees.
As Zimbabwe's gold mining industry continues to decline, two gold mining companies plan to lay off even more workers.
Author: Tawanda Karombo
Posted: Monday , 02 Jul 2007
Harare -
About 40,000 mine workers have deserted Zimbabwe's mines over the past 10 years and now Zimbabwe gold producers, Pan African Mining and Freda Rebecca, are planning to lay off a combined 800 mine workers due to the government's failure to pay for gold deliveries to the central bank.
Chamber of Mines president, Jack Murehwa, told a conference in Harare that the closure of mines combined with the slump in minerals output had scared away skilled workers and investors alike.
The country's mining sector, which employed around 75,000 people a decade ago, currently only supports about 35,000 employees.
"There has been a skills flight.
Best skills are leaving and most operations are now manned by second rate managers," he added.
"It is a sad outlook and nobody can blame these people for their quest for a (better) life," he said.
Gold and other mining products are still Zimbabwe's major hard currency earners but the mining sector has been hamstrung by foreign exchange shortages, which have prevented it from buying new equipment and supplies. Gold output is this year expected to fall by 23 percent to about 8,700kg from 11,354kg last year, due to operational problems, according to the Zimbabwe Chamber of Mines
Workers have been leaving Zimbabwe in droves and most of them are destined for South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia where the investment climate is conducive for expansion and attractive remuneration.
As confirmation of fears that Zimbabwe's gold mining sector is on the verge of collapse, about 600 workers are set to lose their jobs at Pan African Mining (PAM)'s Ayrshire gold Mine.
The PAM board recently held an emergency meeting at its South African Headquarters over operational constraints being faced by the Ayrshire Mine. Such constraints are believed to have been occasioned by the late payment for gold deliveries to Fidelity Printers and Refineries, a subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ).
A memo to Ayrshire workers warned employees of impending retrenchments.
"No payment has been received from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe and the (local official) gold price has remained at uneconomic levels," the memo said.
The PAM board had convened in Johannesburg and decided that all employees who were not required for the care and maintenance of mining equipment or who could not be transferred to PAM's other mine - Muriel - would be "placed on paid leave".
Freda Rebecca gold mine also revealed that it was planning to lay off 180 workers after scaling down operations. David Murangari, the managing director of Bindura Nickel Corporation (BNC), a subsidiary of London-listed Mwana Africa Plc, said the Freda gold mine was facing operational problems related to equipment failure. BNC is in the same stable as Freda Rebecca, also owned by Mwana Africa. He said the gold mine, which employs 564 workers, is currently running one mill instead of two.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/05/2007 : 20:45:44
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Good quote not only for stock prices, but for PM prices as well...
"It is crucial to keep the big picture - and the extraordinarily bullish fundamentals in mind.
It is difficult not to become emotional when dramatic one day drops catch even the most seasoned investors off guard.
In the short term, strong dramatic price drops strike fear and doubt into our trading decisions. In these situations we could sell out of our well considered investments and bury our heads in the sand as we can not bear to watch.
Remember,
if trading the financial markets was easy, everyone would be home building wealth and nobody would be working."
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As with stocks, so too with gold, silver, even copper and nickel. Strong nerves and a strong stomach makes for one successful investor.
Just beware of the wealth thief called G-R-E-E-D as house flippers and dot com investors learned the Hard way.
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Same link as above, gold views/opinions...
15 year averages of seasonal price patterns for gold tend to bottom in May, rally into June, and trade negative on net into late July, for a final bottom, prior to strength which drives the gold market into fall and winter. 29 years of seasonal averages tend to remain negative on net beyond July into late August and mid September. - Jim Sinclair
In over 30 years of following gold we often see a price bottom in July or August. - Monty Guild
........(Time to buy?)
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Newmont eliminates gold hedges
By SANDY SHORE
Newmont Mining Corp., one of the world's largest gold producers, said Thursday it eliminated all of its forward-sales gold contracts and is working to discontinue its merchant banking division.
The company said it will record a $531 million pre-tax loss as a result of the eliminated hedge position and a $1.7 billion non-cash charge in the second quarter related to the closing of the banking business.
The developments come as Newmont, under new Chief Executive Officer Richard O'Brien, is shifting more of its focus to its core mining operations around the world.
"With the elimination of our gold hedge book, we have renewed our commitment to maximizing gold price leverage for our shareholders," O'Brien said in a statement.
"In addition, we are focused on delivering improvements in our operating performance and cost structure going forward," he said.
Analyst Patrick Chidley of Barnard Jacobs Mellet said it appears Newmont will report a "very poor second quarter" because the developments will outweigh operating results.
He said it will be a net positive change in the long run because it clears up the hedges and might attract more investors.
Newmont said it spent $578 million in June to eliminate 1.85 million ounces of gold hedge contracts as of June 30. The price for the contracts was not specified.
Newmont has hired financial and legal advisers to assist with the merchant banking segment's closure, which will occur over the next year.
Executives are considering alternatives such as a public offering or private sales transaction involving the royalty and equity portfolio.
Newmont made the announcement after the market closed Thursday. Its stock rose 57 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $40.15 in extended trading after closing up 5 cents at $39.58 a share.
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I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/06/2007 : 17:58:59
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silver junior news...
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Copper, zinc, nickel and lead markets remain tight - "After forecasting strong metal prices for the second half of 2007 and 2008 in early June due to growth in China, an improving U.S. economy and continued economic growth in Europe, Octagon Capital analyst Hendrik Visagie is updating his projections."
Courtesy/copyright Dow Jones Newswire - "LME nickel prices will take direction from short-term technical factors although some price support comes from news Aneka Tambang's is unlikely to meet its production target of 20,000 tons, says Standard Bank. Notes price volatility reduced as stocks increase - nickel stocks are at their highest level in over a year, but still below 17,000 ton average of the last five years and 37,000 tons in Feb 06. It is still at risk of large price fluctionations, the bank says."
Kloppers flags BHP boosting nickel, copper - "Incoming BHP Billiton chief executive Marius Kloppers has flagged further expansions of the group's copper and nickel operations, along with fiscal discipline when he takes up his post in October." -
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Zimbabwe: BNC to Open New Mine
The Herald (Harare)
5 July 2007
Excerpt:
BINDURA Nickel Corporation will begin exploitation of nickel at its US$100 million Hunter's Road project in the next three months, "if things go according to plan".
........("if things go according to plan" means-
if the Zimbabwe economy doesn't completely implode and chaos doesn't overrun the country or if the mine isn't taken over by the Zimbabwe government if nickel is found. What have these fools been drinkin' or smokin'? Unless Mugabee and his ilk are board members or are getting a slice of the action this project is a pipe dream if ever there was one.)
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I am not sure if I posted this before concerning silver recycling, so here it is again...
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Photographic recycling of silver sliding
Silver recoveries from photographic recycling are on the decline and will continue to decrease as digital photography grows.
Author: Tessa Kruger
Posted: Friday , 06 Jul 2007
JOHANNESBURG -
Silver returned to the market by photographic recycling will continue to decline as a result of growth in digital photography. But photographic recycling will continue to represent 10% of annual silver supply.
Virtual Metals Group analyst Jessica Cross said in the Group's first edition of the Silver Book the volume of silver returned to the market by the photographic industry has been declining since it peaked in the mid-1990s.
Approximately 4,700 tonnes of photographic silver tonnes were recycled in 1995 compared to approximately 3,700 tonnes last year.
The photographic sector's share of recycled silver has also declined relative to industrial and jewellery recycling.
In 1995,
the jewellery sector represented over 2,000 tonnes of recycling supply,
other industrial applications about 1,000 tonnes,
coin melting a very small amount
and photographic recycling about 4,700 tonnes.
Last year's picture of recycling by each segment looked very different with the jewellery sector contributing less than 4,000 tonnes, industrial applications more than 4,000 tonnes, and photographic under 4,000 tonnes.
Silver recovery through recycling rose from under 10,000 tonnes in 1995 to a little less than 14,000 tonnes in 2006.
Cross said these trends were likely to continue as growth in digital photography meant a smaller amount of silver now entered the industry on an annual basis.
But while silver supply from photographic recycling is off its peak, recovery from the photographic industry will continue to represent 10% of total annual supply.
The photographic sector has six end uses of which the largest are film and imaging (41%),
followed by medical applications (28%),
graphic (17%),
industrial X-rays (5%),
the movie sector (4%)
and other minor end uses (5%).
These end products have different life spans, some terminating in recycling sooner than others. For instance, the silver-rich residue from film and imaging is recycled almost immediately on film processing, while medical x-rays are kept on file for years - resulting in considerable lag before this type of silver scrap is returned.
Recycling losses occur at every stage of the photographic chain with a 50-60% loss of metal in photo finishing
and an assumed 40% loss in other products.
Refining losses of between 5% and 10% are also incurred.
These losses are standard throughout the precious metals secondary supply chain.
........(Now that is interesting, some silver is lost in the recycling process, lost probably for good.
If 14,000 tonnes of silver were recovered from recycling, how much was lost due to recycling process? If I am right, at a 5% loss, then 14,737 tonnes were sent to recyclers to get 14,000 tonnes of silver (roughly). At a loss of 10% then 15,555 tonnes of silver sent to the recyclers turns into almost 14,000 tonnes of silver(roughly).
Lost silver, up in smoke or unsalvagable. Maybe a silver shortage is possible....
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I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/07/2007 : 22:51:09
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I know this is a repeat of previous posts (China & India need metals) but this bit found is worth considering.....
It was about this time in 2002 that a rebirth in the tangible assets sector really began. Much of that growth can be directly attributed to the insatiable demand for raw materials that the developing giants China and India are now consuming.
These countries are still in the early stages of development.
It takes about 30 years to go from an agrarian to an industrial society.
China is about one-third of the way there.
....(If correct, expect 20 more years of metal demand.)
China will continue to import commodities to sustain this enormous transition. India will do the same.
Furthermore, the golden era of stocks (1982-2000) directed capital in about every investing avenue
except natural resources and raw materials.
Hence, limited demand caused a decrease in available supply.
Now the entire world can't get enough copper, zinc, lumber and oil.
But bringing on new production takes time.
Supply can't catch up with demand overnight.
In fact, it's going to take quite some time, especially when you throw the consumption potential of India and China (37% of the world's population) into the mix.
Consequently, commodities, the market for the essentials, will remain tight for the foreseeable future.
from:
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Also form the article comes this,
consider it a pick-me-up whenever you start feeling blue about how you have not achieved everyhing you want out of life yet:
Max Ehrmann wrote: "If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain and bitter; for always there will be greater and lesser persons than yourself. Enjoy your achievements as well as your plans."
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/11/2007 : 18:44:54
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Opinion, but worth mentioning...
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Average gold price seen up 10 pct in 2007 and silver to outperform
A Reuters global poll of 33 analysts predicts average gold prices will continue to move upwards and that the silver price will outperform the gold price.
Author: Atul Prakash
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Jul 2007
LONDON (Reuters) -
Average gold prices will jump nearly 10 percent this year and gain further in 2008 as a weaker dollar outlook, less aggressive sales by central banks and physical demand will boost investor interest, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
The global poll of 33 analysts and traders conducted over the past month arrived at a median price for gold of $670 a troy ounce, up from an average of $612.10 in 2006 and about three percent higher than the figure from a poll in January.
Gold is forecast to rise to an average of $681.00 in 2008, up four percent from the January poll for the same year. That compares with a 23 percent surge in 2006 and 18 percent in 2005 .
Spot gold was trading at around $665 on Wednesday.
Other precious metals are expected to perform more strongly than gold, with the average for silver seen surging by nearly 14 percent this year, platinum gaining more than 11 percent and palladium rising by over 13 percent.
"We believe the medium-term environment remains constructive for the gold price outlook," said Michael Lewis, global head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank in London.
"A further depreciation of the dollar, low real U.S. interest rates, the possibility of more skittish equity markets ahead as well as strong fabrication demand suggest to us that the recent correction in the gold price will be short lived."
Gold fell to a three-month low of $638.90 on June 27 before recovering, compared with last year's 26-year high of $730.
DRIVING FACTORS
Sentiment was expected to be bullish as the metal was likely to remain a part of the portfolio of funds and investors.
"The forces that have driven commodity prices higher in the past couple of years remain largely in place," said Donald W. Doyle, Jr, chairman and chief executive of U.S.-based Blanchard and Company, a precious metals dealer.
"Global economic growth is strong, liquidity is plentiful, investors appear to still have an appetite for risk and the demand for commodities will continue to grow in emerging Asia as the region industrialises and wealth grows," he said.
Analysts said physical demand, which suffered last year because of volatile prices, was seen increasing due to a reduction in sharp price fluctuations, which might underpin the metal.
"From a fundamental perspective, fabrication demand has shown signs of stabilising and, barring another surge in price and volatility, we expect demand to remain positive over the year," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Barclays Capital in London.
Forecasts for continued dollar weakness, strength in oil prices, a tense geopolitical environment and expectations of gold sales by European central banks falling below their annual target of 500 tonnes remained positive for gold, but other factors had turned bearish, analysts said.
The pace of closing hedge positions that entailed gold sales for delivery at a future date was expected to slow down, while there had been some reduction in the metal held by exchange traded funds (ETFs) in recent months.
"If this were a mid-term school report for gold, it might have read -- Does well with limited resources, needs to pay better attention to what is going on," Ross Norman, managing director of TheBullionDesk.com, said.
SILVER TO OUTPERFORM
Silver is seen stronger than other metals, with the average 2007 price surging 14 percent to $13.30 an ounce. But it is forecast to fall to $13.00 in 2008, against its spot price of $12.95 and a 25-year high of $15.17 in May last year.
"Silver remains somewhat linked to the fortunes of gold but we believe increasing investor demand will see silver prices outperform gold over the next 6-12 months," said Daniel Hynes, commodities analyst at Merrill Lynch in London.
Analysts said silver would need support from investments in ETFs as the market was expected to end 2007 in surplus on rising mine supply.
Platinum is forecast to rise 11 percent to $1,267.50 an ounce this year before falling to $1,250 in 2008, but will still be above last year's $1,138 and the January's forecast of $1,125. Spot was last quoted at around $1,305, far below its record high of $1,395 in November.
Palladium was predicted to track other metals, with prices seen rising 13 percent to $363 an ounce in 2007 and then to $380 in 2008.
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Chinese January-May gold production up 11%
The China Gold Association reported Monday that the nation’s gold industry has entered a period of fast growth on robust demand with production up 11% for the first five months of this year.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 11 Jul 2007
RENO, NV -
The China Gold Association reported that Chinese gold production was up 11% in the first five months of this year with 98.89 tonnes of gold.
The official Chinese news agency Xinhua reported that the value of Chinese gold mine production increased 43% to 25.8 million yuan (US$3.4 million) over last year. The net profit of these combined enterprises was a combined 2.8 billion yuan (US$369 million), a 33% increase over the same period of last year.
China is anticipated to increase its gold production by 8.3% to 260 tonnes this year. Annual gold production in China was reported at 240 tonnes in 2006, while profits more than quintupled to achieve 6.1 billion yuan (US$804.6 million) last year, according to the Gold Association.
The Association said that China's gold industry has entered a period of fast growth on robust demand.
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Did I post this before or did I miss this one?
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China is world's 3rd largest gold consumer
....Soon to rise to the number 2 spot, if they have not done so already.
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From stainless steel news (nickel's #1 consumer)
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Nickel Forecast Raised by Credit Suisse on Stainless Steel Use - "Nickel cash prices may average higher than forecast this year as stainless steelmakers resume purchases, Credit Suisse Group said."
DB optimistic on base metal prices - "Base metal prices will likely remain high in 2008 as emerging markets continue to grow in demand, surpassing anticipated supply this year and next, Deutsche Bank said in a report forecasting prices."
Commodities, Stocks and Warrants - "Is there any doubt that we are in the mist of a bull market in the commodities sector, especially for natural resources? The expert analysts we follow believe this bull market will last another 15 to 20 years. The purpose of this article is not to convince you of the existence of the bull market but rather to discuss the different investment strategies that investors can use to accomplish their objectives."
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The Commodity "Super Cycle" - "We are skeptical about the "commodity super cycle" theory that has become widely accepted over the past couple of years. Or, to put it more aptly, we have been long-term bullish on commodities since 2001-2002 and remain so to this day, but we are skeptical about the explanations generally bandied about for the secular upward trend in commodity prices. In particular, we do not believe that the rapid growth of China and India is the primary driving force behind the long-term bull market in commodities."
More on the story here.
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I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/11/2007 : 18:50:29
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The following link is to a news item I am reluctant to post.
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While we metal hoarders would love to see the prices of metals, all metals rise, we do not want such a move to be because of hardships for the mines or the miners themselves.
We are hopeful future profiteers, not ghouls, none of us would want to see anyone suffer for our own enrichment. The story is out there for you to read or ignore as you wish, nothing else.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 07/12/2007 : 20:06:07
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Ghana: Anglogold Ashanti Workers Beat Up Chronicle Reporter
ABOUT THREE thousand workers of AngloGold Ashanti at Obuasi on Tuesday descended heavily on this paper's correspondent at Obuasi, Mr. Albert Nana Asante and beat him mercilessly at a meeting that the company's own union had invited him to attend for coverage.
He is currently since Tuesday, on admission at the AGA hospital and at the time of going to press, has not yet been discharged.
According to Nana Asante, he was invited to the AGA club house by the company's local union of the Ghana Mines Workers Union to cover a meeting of the union to be addressed by leaders of the local branch about the workers conditions of service.
At the meeting, the workers resolved to embark on an indefinite strike if management of AngloGold Ashanti fails to meet their demands within 13 days.
Though the entire demands of the workers were not known by this paper, The Chronicle could reveal that salary increment was the main agenda.
While the workers were demanding 16% increase of salary, the management was prepared to give them 9%, resulting in the threat of a strike action.
The threat of the workers became more serious when the local union Chairman, Mr. Jyakari Kwarko declared: "We are giving them up to the end of 23rd of this month and if we hear nothing from them, we will embark on a strike action" and asked the workers to wear red arm bands to show management their seriousness.
The Chairman added," We can no longer sit down unconcerned for management to take us for a ride".
And in attempt by this reporter to get pictures for his story, the workers thought he was a management spy who had come in to watch proceedings and report back to management.
The about 3,000 workers then pounced on him and close to 20 minutes subjected him to severe beatings. Seeing the carnage by his workers, the Chairman of the local union shouted, "Please, leave him. We invited him to cover this programme so he is not an enemy to us".
After this reporter has been rescued from the jaws of the workers, the entire union executives, led by its Chairman, apologised profusely on behalf of the workers.
The reporter was sent to the company's hospital and admitted since then, while the union executive had promised to foot the total bill to be incurred at the hospital. The reporter is yet to report the assault to the Police.
The impending strike action tagged "the mother of all strikes", would be the first in about some eight years after the famous 1999 strike that rocked the company then known as Ashanti Goldfield Company.
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Now this is unexpected news...
Around the world: top gold producer to build wind-powered turbines
Barrick Gold Corp., the world's largest gold producer, will spend $40 million to build wind-powered turbines to help supply mining projects in Chile amid a fuel shortage.
The turbines may start operating as soon as next year, Barrick spokesman Vincent Borg said by telephone from Toronto, where the company is based. Energy from the project in northern Chile will go into the nation's power grid for use by mine projects elsewhere, he said.
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FEATURE-Legendary Bolivian silver mine at risk of collapse
12 Jul 2007 11:00:23 GMT
Source: Reuters
POTOSI, Bolivia, July 12 (Reuters) - High silver prices are drawing a frenzy of miners to a colonial-era mine at Potosi in Bolivia, but the mine has become so dangerous that authorities fear the mine, part of a World Heritage Site, could collapse.
Cerro Rico (Rich Mountain) rises majestically above the town of Potosi, a symbol of a colonial past where Inca slaves died by the thousand extracting silver to enrich their Spanish masters.
Nearly five centuries later, thousands of ill-equipped and untrained miners are turning its graceful cone into a sponge of flimsy tunnels that threaten to cave in on miners working below, prompting Bolivian officials to consider partial closure.
"It's a very important symbol for the people of Potosi and for the people of Bolivia," said German Elias, mining director at Potosi's local government. "The Cerro Rico is a monument that virtually sums up the history of mining."
Miners have already protested the possibility that parts of the Cerro could be closed, sending a warning to leftist President Evo Morales, who has clashed with the country's notoriously rebellious miners over a number of issues in recent months.
The miners -- who work in small cooperatives -- would rather take their chances with danger than earn less money elsewhere or face unemployment.
"This is the only way we have to make a living and we have to risk our lives to work here in the mine," said 23-year-old Julio Mamani. He earns less than $20 per day, relatively good for South America's poorest country, where the average monthly wage is about $115.
He pushed a wheel-barrow heaped with rubble to be loaded onto a cart and carried out to the daylight above. A 13-year-old boy worked nearby.
BRIDGE OF SILVER
Legend has it that enough metal was extracted from Cerro Rico to build a bridge of silver from South America to Europe, and the mine has left an indelible mark on Bolivian culture due to the cruel toll it took on indigenous slaves.
Its vast reserves turned the nearby city of Potosi into the most populous in the Americas in the 17th century, with some 120,000 inhabitants -- more than London, Paris or Madrid at the time.
A slump in silver prices threw its elaborate colonial churches and mansions into a long decline and, while the recent metals boom has brought a little prosperity back to Potosi, the chilly highland region is still one of Bolivia's poorest.
"Mining started in the Cerro Rico in 1545, and it hasn't stopped since," said Manuel Farfan, the regional head of Bolivia's state mining company Comibol. "Production's increased today because of the prices," he said.
Today about 15,000 miners work the site every day in round-the-clock shifts, and conditions have not changed much since Spanish conquerors brought slaves to work here nearly 500 years ago.
The centuries of mining mean rich seams of silver are harder to find so greater risks are being taken.
"There are few places with a lot of silver so the danger is that miners are excavating the natural pillars that act like internal beams inside the Cerro," said Samuel Rosales, a former miner and sociologist who does research for Care International, a nongovernmental organization.
Potosi's mining director, Elias, said irresponsible removal of the natural beams meant more and more pressure was building up inside the mountain.
"The exploitation has caused a kind of sinking to take place in some parts of the sides of the Cerro Potosi in the recent past," he said.
Regional and national mining officials and experts from the state geology service, Sergeotecmin, are about to start work on a survey of the site.
Converting the site into an open-pit mine would cut the risks.
But local people have fought past proposals that would change forever the graceful silhouette of the mountain, which stands behind the chilly Andean city that lies nearly 4,000 metres (13,125 feet).
"The people of Potosi wouldn't allow it because the Cerro Rico is precious to all Bolivians," Elias said. (additional reporting by Helen Popper in La Paz)
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Base metals – oversupply modest and downside limited
GFMS Metals Consulting' latest supply-demand analysis concludes that any move into oversupply in the base metals sector will be modest
Author: Rhona O'Connell
Posted: Thursday , 12 Jul 2007
LONDON -
The latest Monthly review of the base metals markets from GFMS Metals Consulting Limited notes that there is some easing of demand in Europe, but that there is still no clear sign that the demand weakness in the United States is behind the market.
The study considers that the latest economic data, however, are relatively positive for the sector, noting that the latest data from the US suggest that the manufacturing sector is gaining momentum, with production and new orders improving over the month and inventory falling. Good figures from France and Italy suggest that a "second pillar" of economic strength is forming in Europe behind Germany. Chinese growth increased in May, reaching an 18% year-on-year rate, while fixed asset investment rose by 25.9% in May, faster than the increase on the pace recorded in April. The Consultancy notes, however that inflation is picking up and that this may result n further moves by the central government to slow fixed asset investment.
The study breaks down the prospects for economic growth by nation, producing a forecast of 2.8% global growth in GDP this year, and comments that the economic outlook provides an "excellent backdrop" for the base metals sector, with the economic environment exceptionally benign for this stage of the base metals price cycle. It is looking for further weakness in the dollar, not just as a result of slowing economic condition in the US as well as the shift in global central bank dynamics.
As far as the metals are concerned, the report is of the view that demand growth in the aluminium market is weak outside China. Premia have already been falling in Japan and are expected to follow suit in Europe, with increased material coming into Europe, partly as a result of a continued downtrend in the United States. Seasonal factors are likely to generate a downward drift in prices in coming weeks, with the market forecast to be in a very small surplus for the year as a whole, with global demand rising by 7.1% over 2006. The report remarks that aluminium stands out in that the improvement in prices in the year so far has arisen despite a steady uptrend in LME inventories; this has been driven primarily by the focus of investment funds on the underperformance of aluminium earlier in this cycle. The average price in 2008 is forecast to be lower than that of 2007.
Copper, meanwhile, was in a small deficit in the first quarter of this year, with Chinese apparent usage up by 36% in the first quarter. This figure, however, includes inventory building and the last trade figures are showing a slowdown in imports and the rate of demand growth is expected to slow significantly in the third quarter, although Chinese refined output this year has grown only modestly and the country's import requirement is expected to continue to expand. The market is expected to move into a small surplus in the third quarter, and a larger, but still comparatively small, surplus in the final quarter of the year. The study considers that there appears to be sufficient momentum to take the copper cash price back over $8,000/tonne ($3.63/lb) in the coming weeks (which it already has reached) and that it should stay above $7,000/tonne for much of the rest of the year.
Nickel has been experiencing a weakening in demand from the stainless steel sector as a result of production cuts in Europe and the decline in the austenitic ratio in favour of ferritic material, along with increased scrap supply. The trigger for the recent correction in price (three months is currently trading at $15.03/lb after a first half average of $20.25/lb) came from the London Metal Exchange's guidance on lending activity, but the fundamentals continue to point to underlying weakness, with stainless steel alloy surcharges expected to fall in coming months, accompanied by a further bout of destocking in the stainless steel market. European nickel premia are also expected to fall in the coming months.
The report points out, however, that the market weakness primarily reflects inventory adjustment and that further ahead the structural supply tightness may again become an issue; the market is expected to sustain a deficit this year. Noting that prices in the sector as a whole are "incredibly inflated", the study warns that only a modest deterioration in nickel's fundamentals could herald a substantial fall in prices.
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Copyright/courtesy - Kommersant - "Before July is out, Russia intends to file a request with the United Nations to carry out geological surveys of ocean deposits for copper, nickel, gold, lead, zinc, and silver, with up to 70% of the metal in the ore. But any start can only be made in 10 to 15 years' time and on condition that metal companies agree to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on the technologies, which as yet unavailable. So far, none of the industry's holdings has stepped forward to announce its interest in the project. The territory concerned is 200 miles out from the coastline of world oceans and contains deposits of copper, nickel, gold, manganese and cobalt at a depth of 1,500-2,000 meters....The likely investors (Renova and Norilsk Nickel) have been cool to the idea." (comment - mining off the world's ocean floors has been an idea floating around for years, and so far, without success, due to the high initial cost and lack of technological advancement. From what we have read over the past years, India maybe farther along than any other country in researching the feasibility of mining nodules.)
I suspect the writer of this piece never read these stories
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I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
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Bullion news, views & thoughts #4
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