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orionstarman
Penny Pincher Member
USA
106 Posts |
 Posted - 07/27/2009 : 17:37:38
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Ok, the market is up 2500 points from it lows in March is this a recovery or just a bear market rally?
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Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.--Benjamin Franklin
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orionstarman
Penny Pincher Member
USA
106 Posts |
Posted - 07/27/2009 : 18:37:26
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| The talking heads on the cable news shows would have us believe that we are now in a recovery but people like Peter Schiff and Mark Faber tell us that the recession has only just begun. I'm betting on Mark and Peter. I see alot of the good earnings reports that have come out lately are due, at least in part, to employee layoffs and not increased sale's. But, the talking heads are still there saying all is looking up. So who's right the Bulls or the Bears? |
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.--Benjamin Franklin
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Edited by - orionstarman on 07/27/2009 18:39:40 |
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fb101
Administrator
USA
2856 Posts |
Posted - 07/27/2009 : 18:38:23
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| I happened to do a 3 year chart of NASD today and of you're a chartist, there's about another 200 points to the upside (give or take) before it turns south seriously again. |
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Bluegill
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1964 Posts |
 Posted - 07/27/2009 : 18:40:34
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It is a bear (or suckers) rally. We only just experienced the warm up act before this fake manipulated rally. Hang on when the real show starts.   Shades of 1930 all over again. 
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 07/27/2009 : 19:18:40
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Statistically, it is currently a BEAR market. The chartists will tell you that until the SP500 ($SPX) 13-week exponential moving average exceeds (crosses-over) the 34-week exponential moving average, the long-term trend is BEARISH. This US stock market rally has been a whopper! But, I am watching these particular long-term moving averages to say definitively that the trend has changed from BEAR to BULL.
The most recent time these averages crossed-over negatively was in January 2008. The trend definitively turned from being BULLISH to BEARISH in the first week of January 2008. Think how much better you would have been if you got out of market then. Likewise, if the 13-week average crosses-over the 34-week average positively, that is very BULLISH. That is the all-clear sign that the BEAR market has ended. The last time that happened was in June 2003. A multi-year BULL market ensued after that positive cross-over.
The current 13-week exponential moving average for $SPX is 922.19. The current 34-week exponential moving average for the $SPX is 924.03.
WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO SEEING THE TREND CHANGE FROM BEAR MARKET TO BULL MARKET NOW.
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 07/27/2009 19:21:33 |
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orionstarman
Penny Pincher Member
USA
106 Posts |
Posted - 07/27/2009 : 21:11:47
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
Likewise, if the 13-week average crosses-over the 34-week average positively, that is very BULLISH. That is the all-clear sign that the BEAR market has ended. The last time that happened was in June 2003. A multi-year BULL market ensued after that positive cross-over.
Wasn't that just the beginning of the Housing Bubble that burst last year? Is the current rally just the beginning of the Bailout Bubble? Who's doing all the buying with unemployment going up?
I don't know much about cross overs and 34-week averages but, I can tell ya I've had a sense of impending doom since March. |
Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.--Benjamin Franklin
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 07/28/2009 : 08:24:12
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quote:
Originally posted by orionstarman
quote:
Originally posted by Country
Likewise, if the 13-week average crosses-over the 34-week average positively, that is very BULLISH. That is the all-clear sign that the BEAR market has ended. The last time that happened was in June 2003. A multi-year BULL market ensued after that positive cross-over.
Wasn't that just the beginning of the Housing Bubble that burst last year? Is the current rally just the beginning of the Bailout Bubble? Who's doing all the buying with unemployment going up?
I don't know much about cross overs and 34-week averages but, I can tell ya I've had a sense of impending doom since March.
January 2008 was the negative cross-over. That is very negative for markets. That is your signal to get out. The positive cross-over has not occured yet; therefore, the trend has NOT yet turned from BEARISH to BULLISH. Cross-overs occur rarely; January 2001 (negative), June 2003 (positive), January 2008 (negative) were the only cross-over turning points in the market since 1994. This is one of the indicators the BIG money uses for BULL/BEAR market confirmation.
Markets are going up now on potentially increasing profits. Perhaps, the first significant inflation is occuring in the stock market now, the economy later. Market moves normally precede economic recovery. Employment is a lagging indicator; sometimes it lags by a year or more. By the time employment turns up, the market will have already made its move higher.
I would suggest that if you are in the stock market, let the stock market and its various indicators tell you what is the health of the stock market. If it's potentially a good market, you buy in before it goes up. Conversely, sell before it goes down. If you are serious about investing, this indicator is one of the time-tested free lunches that is available to you. |
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Mikep2020
Penny Collector Member
USA
402 Posts |
Posted - 07/28/2009 : 08:44:51
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| There is not going to be any REAL recovery until the people get their jobs back and our manufacturing returns. We need to make products that other countries want to buy, we are not going to recover by pushing papers or doing each others laundry for a fee. Everything else is just manipulation. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 07/28/2009 : 08:46:52
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quote:
Originally posted by Mikep2020
There is not going to be any REAL recovery until the people get their jobs back and our manufacturing returns. We need to make products that other countries want to buy, we are not going to recover by pushing papers or doing each others laundry for a fee. Everything else is just manipulation.
That is true. But, why not profit from the manipulation? Use the profits to buy PMs. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2009 : 09:53:20
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
Statistically, it is currently a BEAR market. The chartists will tell you that until the SP500 ($SPX) 13-week exponential moving average exceeds (crosses-over) the 34-week exponential moving average, the long-term trend is BEARISH. This US stock market rally has been a whopper! But, I am watching these particular long-term moving averages to say definitively that the trend has changed from BEAR to BULL.
The most recent time these averages crossed-over negatively was in January 2008. The trend definitively turned from being BULLISH to BEARISH in the first week of January 2008. Think how much better you would have been if you got out of market then. Likewise, if the 13-week average crosses-over the 34-week average positively, that is very BULLISH. That is the all-clear sign that the BEAR market has ended. The last time that happened was in June 2003. A multi-year BULL market ensued after that positive cross-over.
The current 13-week exponential moving average for $SPX is 922.19. The current 34-week exponential moving average for the $SPX is 924.03.
WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO SEEING THE TREND CHANGE FROM BEAR MARKET TO BULL MARKET NOW.
You must be logged in to see this link.
AS OF 8/3/09, THE TREND CHANGE FROM BEAR MARKET TO BULL MARKET HAS OCCURRED. THE 13-WEEK EXPONENTIAL AVERAGE (933.92) HAS POSITIVELY CROSSED THE 34-WEEK EXPONENTIAL AVERAGE (928.64). THESE EVENTS ARE RARE AND ARE DEFINITIVE TO REFLECT A MAJOR LONG TERM TREND CHANGE. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS JUNE 2003. POSTIVE CROSSOVERS ARE VERY BULLISH. |
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Ant
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
894 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2009 : 10:19:08
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The markets rose on reports of profits. If firms don't continue to perform, then this blip will be just that, a blip, a bear market rally.
What will the firms do with their profits? If demand increases in the long run, or even the medium run  , they should make capital improvements and create jobs. If companies don't do that, where will the gains go? To stockholders (higher share prices, possibly higher dividends) and executives (bonuses), likely. That won't do the economy much good. If stockholders don't sell when the stock is high and take profits, then their gains are all on paper. Problem is, no one wants to sell when the stock is high . . . it could go *even higher*!
So before we put too much money back in the markets, let's wait a little longer and see how everything shakes out. If the economy truly recovers (sustained rises in GDP and exports, full or near-full employment), there will be plenty of buying opportunities for a studious investor. Haste makes waste. |
Lovely dimes, the liveliest coin, the one that really jingles. --Truman Capote
Coins are the metallic footprints of the history of nations. --William H. Woodin |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2009 : 11:11:33
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Ant,
Many good points. But the old saying, "He who hesitates is lost" applies here.
Stock markets are forward looking most of the time. Stock markets lead the recovery in an economy. By the time the world economy recovers, if it does, the world stock markets will have already made their move higher. When the economy has recovered, that is the time to think about selling, sort of reverse logic in a way. When the economy is in the tank, that is the time to buy.
The last two positive reversals of the 13-week exponential average crossing the 34-week exponential average were June 2003 and October 1994. Our stock market was around 3800 in 1994 and it went up to 11500 in 2000. Our stock market was around 9000 or so in June 2003 and it went up to 14000 in 2007. What could happen this time around with the Dow at 9200? Could it go up to 14000 again, or higher? I suggest if you need to be more invested in stock markets, don't wait. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Ant
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
894 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2009 : 11:50:40
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IMO, now is the time to buy a little, see what happens, maybe buy a little more if the market keeps doing well. There's no rush to buy. Especially since a lot of people kept their stocks during the plunge -- they'll see increased worth through holdings they already have. If this is a recovery, most of the stocks will regain their value.
Optimism is good. If not for optimism, we'd keep all our money in a mattress. But remember that a lot of the folks saying "now is the time to buy" are the ones who make money by their clients buying stocks. We need optimism, but a little bit of caution and pragmatism, too.
On a larger scale, the danger I see for the individual investor is that he isn't diversified enough. Three different mutual funds is not diversification.  It's easy for someone to give into the temptation of putting x dollars into a 401(k) and not thinking about it until it's time for an annual meeting with his company's investment consultant. Or to put all or the majority of his savings into a retirement account that can't be touched without serious penalty -- everybody needs some liquidity.
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When the economy has recovered, that is the time to think about selling
True, true. I hope that so many of the people who were really invested in equities last go round will remember to take profits this time. |
Lovely dimes, the liveliest coin, the one that really jingles. --Truman Capote
Coins are the metallic footprints of the history of nations. --William H. Woodin |
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Ant
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
894 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2009 : 11:53:15
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quote:
Originally posted by orionstarman
The talking heads on the cable news shows would have us believe that we are now in a recovery but people like Peter Schiff and Mark Faber tell us that the recession has only just begun. I'm betting on Mark and Peter.
I really don't totally believe any one guy, but if I had to pick just one, it would be Mark Faber. Do you subscribe to his newsletter/reports? I've been thinking about doing that. |
Lovely dimes, the liveliest coin, the one that really jingles. --Truman Capote
Coins are the metallic footprints of the history of nations. --William H. Woodin |
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silverhalide
Penny Sorter Member
92 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 09:54:41
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I am total agreement about Marc Faber is definitely worth listening to. In May of last year he advised to sell everything and buy gold and treasury bonds and those were the only two asset classes that survived the year and then he advised buying commodity stocks when the fed started to print money.
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 13:06:08
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| Confirmed BULL stock market is ongoing. Time to get onboard. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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PennySaved
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1720 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 14:32:28
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| Do you really think it is a bull market? Can't there be a bull movement in a Bear Market? I just don't see long term how strong the American economy will be with the staggering national debt we are piling up. |
SELLING COPPER PENNIES 1.4X FACE SHIPPED......“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principles of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale” Thomas Jefferson |
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Gr33nday43
New Member
Uzbekistan
10 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 14:34:20
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| Country, are you currently long invested in the stock market? |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 14:52:59
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AS OF 8/3/09, THE TREND CHANGE FROM BEAR MARKET TO BULL MARKET HAS OCCURRED. THE 13-WEEK EXPONENTIAL AVERAGE (933.92) HAS POSITIVELY CROSSED THE 34-WEEK EXPONENTIAL AVERAGE (928.64). THESE EVENTS ARE RARE AND ARE DEFINITIVE TO REFLECT A MAJOR LONG TERM TREND CHANGE. THE LAST TIME THIS OCCURRED WAS JUNE 2003. POSITIVE CROSSOVERS ARE VERY BULLISH.
The confirmation occurred 8/3/09. I am BULLISH and LONG, for US and Foreign stock markets. Until the next negative crossover occurs, I will be LONG. I am equally BULLISH for PMs and commodities at this time. If the crossover did not occur, I would still be BEARISH. If that were the case, this move will just be another rally in a BEAR market.
There's a lot of fiat sloshing around looking for a new home. I believe the worldwide bailout money is being put to work by the banksters. I think it's going into all markets and coming out of safe havens, like Treasuries. Market inflation, including commodities and PMs, is the net result of expanding fiat.
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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PennySaved
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1720 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 16:40:19
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| So if you are saying there is a lot of fiat sloshing around, does that mean you are predicting another bubble then burst in an asset class like stocks? Are you just trying to find the next bubble ride it to the top then sell before it bursts? |
SELLING COPPER PENNIES 1.4X FACE SHIPPED......“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principles of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale” Thomas Jefferson |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 16:55:17
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quote:
Originally posted by PennySaved
So if you are saying there is a lot of fiat sloshing around, does that mean you are predicting another bubble then burst in an asset class like stocks? Are you just trying to find the next bubble ride it to the top then sell before it bursts?
I wish I knew. An asset bubble in stocks could occur. It could occur in PMs or commodities. I just try to be on the right side of the long term trend and try to get off when I get confirmation that the ship is sinking. When I get confirmation that the train is leaving the station, I want to be fully invested until it's time to get off. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Edited by - Country on 08/07/2009 16:57:52 |
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PennySaved
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1720 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 16:57:32
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| So in other words, you think that metals are always the safe steady as you go bet. However, stocks could be the more speculative but more rewarding play? |
SELLING COPPER PENNIES 1.4X FACE SHIPPED......“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principles of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale” Thomas Jefferson |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 17:08:27
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quote:
Originally posted by PennySaved
So in other words, you think that metals are always the safe steady as you go bet. However, stocks could be the more speculative but more rewarding play?
I believe that no market is safe. All markets have risk. I have no idea which market will be more rewarding in the long term. However, if an upward long term trend is ongoing, I want to be in that market until it's time to say goodbye.
Besides their speculative nature, PMs have an aspect of wealth preservation over longer term periods. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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PennySaved
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1720 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 17:10:55
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| Could you imagine if someone would have sold at the height of the real estate market turned around and bought gold and silver when their prices were more depressed. If only I would have thought that way back then. |
SELLING COPPER PENNIES 1.4X FACE SHIPPED......“I sincerely believe that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies, and that the principles of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale” Thomas Jefferson |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2009 : 17:30:54
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quote:
Originally posted by orionstarman
Ok, the market is up 2500 points from it lows in March is this a recovery or just a bear market rally?
2500 points is a lot and I dare say, unexpected, by many of us around here. However, can the market hold on to what it has got much less gain a whole lot more over the short term? Over the long term I'm not betting that we won't see a "recovery" of the economy. But to prarphrase Bill Cliton, 'How do you define recovery'? I have no doubts that we will continue to see a gradual decline of our standard of living. That may not mean the the S will hit the fan and blood will flow down the streets per say. But already it is clear that the haves will be continued to be forced to share a lot more with the have nots (or will nots). |
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Think positive. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
3121 Posts |
Posted - 08/08/2009 : 18:18:07
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VERY BULLISH INDICATOR
You must be logged in to see this link. |
---> Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
– Theodore Roosevelt
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Recovery or Bear market rally???
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