| Author |
 Topic  |
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
 Posted - 03/13/2007 : 18:43:59
|
Topic section "Bullion Prices, Hang Tight"
Is getting a bit long with so many posts, so as not to cause any problems, web wise/computer wise or memory wise, I will be posting Gold & Silver information on this topic section.
Any news, views, commentary or ideas about gold or silver prices are welcome by all forum members.
Platinum and Paladium and other precious metal information is welcome too.
(and let us not forget the newcomer of precious metals, Nickle! At over a buck an ounce it deserves to be called silver junior. )
We still are in for a bumpy ride, price wise, though with each dip in prices it creates an opportunity to buy more for less.
You must be logged in to see this link.
Gold Falls on Concern Equity Declines May Trigger Metal Sales
By Claudia Carpenter
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices fell in New York for the third session in a row as declines in global equity markets revived concern that investors will sell commodities to cover losses.
Gold has dropped 5.9 percent since Feb. 27, when Chinese stocks tumbled the most in 10 years and the selling spread to Japan, the U.S. and Europe. U.S. shares fell today after Accredited Home Lenders Co. said it might default on its payment to lenders, heightening concern that a crisis in subprime lending would hurt the broader economy.
``Gold's got a little more weakness to come,'' said James Moore, an analyst at London-based TheBullionDesk.com. ``Investors had their fingers burned in a lot of areas, and they're sort of trading cautiously for now.''
Gold futures for April delivery fell 90 cents to $649.40 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have dropped 0.9 percent in three sessions.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 0.7 percent today, and equities in Australia, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia and Hong Kong also dropped. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600, a European benchmark, fell 1.1 percent.
Gold prices rose earlier as much as 0.5 percent as higher energy costs boosted the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Crude-oil prices later tumbled as much as 2 percent on signs the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won't cut output.
A futures contract is an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price for delivery by a specific date
|
Edited by - pencilvanian on 03/13/2007 18:51:28 |
|
|
Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 03/13/2007 : 20:09:04
|
"Any news, views, commentary or ideas about gold or silver prices are welcome by all forum members.
Platinum and Paladium and other precious metal information is welcome too.
(and let us not forget the newcomer of precious metals, Nickle! At over a buck an ounce it deserves to be called silver junior.)"
That's me - collecting silver junior in America junior!
________________________
"A nickel's nothing to scoff at."
C. Montgomery Burns
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni35000:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
How to read a HoardCode:
You must be logged in to see this link. |
 |
|
|
Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2007 : 14:18:45
|
Nickel continues to hold its own as the newest of the precious metals. Up over $22/oz mid-day today, it's fallen back down to 21.76, but is still up over a buck and a half today.
________________________
"A nickel's nothing to scoff at."
C. Montgomery Burns
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni35000:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
How to read a HoardCode:
You must be logged in to see this link. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/15/2007 : 18:32:50
|
You must be logged in to see this link.
Gold futures gain after surprise surge in PPI
Gold for April delivery closed up $4.60 at $647.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold prices were boosted by the release of February's PPI, which showed prices up 1.3%, outpacing expectations for a 0.6% increase. Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI rose 0.4%, twice the 0.2% gain that was expected.
"The big problem is that the economy is showing some significant signs of slowing right now and the real estate/homebuilder/mortgage debacle isn't helping," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard, in emailed comments.
The real question is "can the Fed continue to walk down the middle of the road on the growth or inflation equation without being hit by trucks traveling in both directions?"
The PPI report's expected to keep the pressure on the Federal Reserve to remain vigilant on inflation, even as the economy shows signs of slowing. A separate report on manufacturing in the New York region released this morning was much weaker than expected.
U.S. stocks closed higher Thursday, as investors found comfort in the market's resilience to recent subprime jitters, helping them ignore data pointing to both waning economic growth and rising inflation.
"There is not much remaining doubt that the subprime lending market troubles are only the tip of the proverbial iceberg and that more turmoil is facing various markets in the weeks ahead," said Jon Nadler, analyst at bullion dealer Kitco.com, in emailed comments.
On Wednesday, gold closed at a one-week low and tallied a loss of $13 over four sessions, caught up by the sell-off in equity markets amid growing fears about rising mortgage defaults in the U.S.
"With the current relationship of the equity markets and gold locked together on sharp sell-offs, investors will soon see a nasty divorce take place," said Peter Spina, chief investment strategist at GoldSeek.com, in e-mailed comments.
At some point, gold will benefit from the "subprime fiasco," Spina said: "The implications it holds for the real estate market and the general economy will drive additional safe-haven investors into the metal."
Copper closes at 3-month high
Copper was the biggest winner among the metals, closing at its highest level since Dec. 19. Boosted by falling supplies and a rebound in financial markets, May copper rose 16.2 cents to close at $2.988 a pound.
"With more evidence of increasing Chinese imports and a realization that the apparent weakness in demand at the end of last year was largely a mirage caused by destocking, the fundamentals for copper have improved," said William Adams, an analyst at BaseMetals.com, in a note.
"If sentiment swings more bullish again, which we think is starting to happen, then we would not be surprised to see copper accelerate to the upside, especially if there are more shorts caught up in the market."
Other metals prices were mixed. May silver rose 24.5 cents to close at $13.075 an ounce and April platinum added $14.70 to end at $1,215.70 an ounce, while June palladium fell $1.80 to close at $351.70 an ounce.
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks were unchanged at 7.55 million troy ounces as of late Thursday, according to New York Mercantile Exchange data. Silver supplies rose by 560,520 troy ounces to stand at 119.1 million troy ounces, while copper supplies were unchanged at 36,435 short tons.
********************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Precious metals prices could see cyclical peaks this year
UBS securities analyst John Reade is forecasting higher average prices for all five precious metals in 2007. In fact, he expects new cyclical highs—and in some cases all-time highs—for all five. In his scenario, he sees gold averaging $700/troy ounce, silver at $14, platinum at $1,225, palladium at $350 and rhodium at $5,500.
Reade says precious metals tend to move higher collectively, driven by investment liquidity and physical scarcity, but also by the rate of global economic growth, the value of the dollar and the cost of crude oil. "Institutional investment into commodities—what we have called the Wall of Money—has been a key factor in lifting metal prices to the highs seen in 2006," says Reade. "Although it is hard to quantify, we suspect there will be less net new money entering commodities in 2007." Still, chief economist Larry Hatheway at UBS Investment Bank doesn't expect a wholesale exit from commodities in general, or precious metals in particular.
One of the characteristics of the strong metal performance between the third quarter of 2005 and the second quarter of 2006 was heavy participation from such leveraged investors as the hedge funds. "In contrast, these investors were much less involved in the precious metals market since May 2006," says Reade, "and even less so after September when the slump in oil triggered weakness in gold and the other precious metals." He suggests that the extent to which these investors return to precious metals this year will be an important determinant as to whether these markets will be exciting or dull (for traders and investors).
Global economic growth is clearly slowing, Reade suggests in his outlook report, with the main contributors to the slowdown being decelerating U.S. economic activity and a slight softening of the rampant Chinese economy. UBS Securities has lower than consensus forecasts for global growth and sees end-2007 growth at below-trend before recovering, he says. Importantly, however, growth in basic materials and commodity intensive economies should remain strong and supportive of metals demand.
"Growth is important for the outlook for precious metals in 2007 although mostly indirectly as these metals are driven more by investment flows than by fundamental demand," says Reade. And where fundamental demand is more important, precious metals will be supported by strong growth in important jewelry markets such as India, China and other developing markets in Asia and the Middle East. "Environmental demand will help platinum group metals demand, as ever-tightening auto emission standards will require greater platinum usage."
***********************************************************
I had been neglecting the Platinum family, but I will post what I can find.
We might not be able to afford some of the platinum family of metals, but we should still keep an eye on them. Maybe they can pull gold and silver up with them.
You must be logged in to see this link.
Rhodium hits highest level since 1991
Free market prices were indicated at $ 6,150/$6,250 an ounce on Friday, having climbed from last week's levels of $5,300/5,400.
Rhodium at $6 000 an ounce in Europe on Wednesday for the first time since January 1991, as supply tightness gripped the market, traders said.
"It is a fundamantally driven market – supply is tight, and the demand is consistent," one said.
"This rise is different from that spike – this is based on demand, such as plasma LCD (liquid crystal display)," another trader said. "Also, the South African mines cannot push out as much rhodium as they want or planned."
"With demand for rhodium growing by more than twice the rate of increase in supplies, the market moved to a deficit of 58 000 ounces," Johnson Matthey said in its yearly report.
Ruthenium was at $178/182 an ounce on Wednesday, the highest since 1984, having risen from just $40 at the start of 2004. Iridium price was at $390/410 an ounce on Wednesday, levels last seen in February 2002.
************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Iridium prices moving higher on good demand, tight supply
Prices of iridium, one of the lesser-known metals in the platinum family, have been moving upward partly in tandem with its sister PGMs. There is good physical demand for the metal, while the supply is tight, according to trade sources.
Johnson Matthey raised its base price for iridium $10 to $340/oz Wednesday – the same level as Engelhard's base price. However, bids and offers from dealers are mostly in the $330-370/oz range. One analyst explained that the base prices are mainly benchmark prices. "They are not selling it at $340/oz, for sure," said the analyst.
Iridium, which is used mainly in crucibles, has been largely stagnant for years because of its limited application, compared with platinum and palladium that have various industrial applications along with their investment appeal.
However, "there is a bit of spec element" in iridium now that platinum is trading at an all-time high, trade sources told Platts. This comes on top of the relatively tight supply/demand balance, with physical demand strong and supply weak. "There is good [physical] demand and there is no metal around," said another trader. "There are more buyers than sellers," said another.
************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
The rise of ruthenium
16 Feb 2007 – Investors in platinum companies are eyeing ruthenium – which until now has been a largely ignored by-product of platinum production – with increasing interest as the price has soared to about $870/oz at present from $100/oz two years ago. In 2003, the metal was priced at $35/oz.
Implats [JSE:IMP] marketing executive Derek Engelbrecht said yesterday the price rise was almost entirely driven by one application, which was a new ruthenium coating on hard disks to improve their storage capacity.
The cost of ruthenium in these applications was very small as a proportion of total production cost but the increase in the price was likely to prompt cutbacks in ruthenium usage in other industries and encourage more recycling.
Implats was also looking at recycling ruthenium to increase output. Engelbrecht said he doubted whether the ruthenium price could stay at $800/oz but said it was difficult to give a price forecast.
CEO David Brown said Implats' ruthenium sales were worth less than $30 million in the six months to December but if the current price prevailed, those sales would be worth about $250 million on an annualised basis.
Earlier this week, Anglo Platinum [JSE:AMS] CEO Ralph Havenstein said the group's annual production of ruthenium was about 500,000 ounces and it would sharpen its focus on recoveries in future.
Angloplat's production of ruthenium was greater than its rhodium output. The short-term price outlook for ruthenium was strengthened by the fact that hard disk manufacturers had to build up stocks for this new application but, like Implats, Angloplat did not believe the current high price could be sustained.
Ruthenium uses
Due to its highly effective ability to harden platinum and palladium, ruthenium is used in platinum and palladium alloys to make severe wear-resistant electrical contacts. It is sometimes alloyed with gold in jewelry.
Fountain pen nibs are frequently tipped with alloys containing ruthenium. From 1944 onward, the Parker 51 fountain pen was outfitted with a 14K gold nib tipped with 96.2% ruthenium, 3.8% iridium.
About 0.1% ruthenium is added to titanium to improve its corrosion resistance a hundredfold.
Ruthenium is also a versatile catalyst, used in the removal of H2S from oil refineries and from other industrial processes.
Some ruthenium complexes absorb light throughout the visible spectrum and are being actively researched in various solar energy technologies.
Ruthenium can also be used in some advanced high-temperature single-crystal superalloys, with applications including the turbine blades in jet engines.
*************************************************************
News on silver junior
You must be logged in to see this link.
Base metals higher amid falling LME stocks, rebounding equity markets
Excerpt
Nickel rose to yet another fresh new high of 46,300 usd, supported also by a large fall in inventories amid dwindling stocks.
Inventories of the metal stored in LME certified warehouses worldwide stood at 3,594 tonnes, down down 222 tonnes from yesterday.
LME nickel for 3 month delivery was up at 45,900 usd a tonne at 10.51 am against 44,800 usd at the close yesterday.
Most analysts agree further gains seem likely amid critically low stocks – which are less than a day's worth of global consumption.
TheBulliondesk.Com analyst, William Adams, however, warned that nickel is most vulnerable to a reversal in fortunes. "We feel nickel is running into trouble," he said.
Adams explained that if demand falls and supply from nickel in pig iron form displaces other forms of nickel, the supply gap may be smaller than forecast.
"When the market starts to turn, nickel is likely to fall very fast," he said.
|
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2007 : 18:05:50
|
You must be logged in to see this link.
Gold edges higher in early London trade as dollar weakens
Gold prices nudged higher in early London trade Friday, building on overnight gains in New York and Asia and boosted by a weaker dollar.
Spot bullion was indicated at $650.20-651.20/oz at 0915 GMT, up from Thursday's afternoon fix in London at $648.50/oz.
"Expect nearby resistance to continue in front of the $652/oz level but a break higher could target $660/oz," Standard Bank London said in its daily web site report. Nearby support should continue to exist around the 100-day moving average, currently around $638/oz, it added.
The dollar fell back in overnight trade Friday after cautious comments from former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan added to nervousness about the US economic outlook.
The euro was bid at $1.3315 at 0915 GMT, up from the previous day's close at $1.3237 as the market moved above the $1.33 level for the first time this year. Key US economic indicators due out later in the day include February consumer prices and industrial production data.
**************************************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Nickel, tin hit fresh all time highs amid dwindling supplies
Nickel and tin hit unprecedented highs as LME stocks fell again on the day.
Nickel has since backed off slightly alongside falls in most other industrial metals as a volatile week in markets worldwide comes to an end.
LME nickel for 3 month delivery hit a high of 48,500 usd earlier in the session, but retreated to 46,900 usd at 1.33 pm compared with yesterday's close of 47,100 usd.
Tin was up to 13,850 usd from 13,775 usd yesterday.
Nickel stocks stored in LME certified warehouses worldwide fell by 30 tonnes to 3,564 usd on the day, leaving less than a day's worth of the metal available to the market.
Tin inventories fell by a hefty 195 tonnes to 9,250 tonnes, said the LME in its daily report.
"It's the end of a long emotional week. Volumes (traded) this morning are a lot lower than they have been of late," notes RBC Capital Markets analyst, Alex Heath.
He explained that with a high level of investors in the market, fuelling prices to high premiums, "a technical correction is healthy."
Nickel has hit new highs for most of this week with analysts calling for a test of the 50,000 usd level in the near future. However, some have pointed to a possible dip in demand which could ease prices.
"More and more anecdotal evidence indicates signs of demand resistance to high prices suggesting that a ceiling can't be far away," said UBS analysts.
**************************************************************************************
Options & futures options ended today (double witching hour on Wall Street) so prices could be effected by today's actions. Next Friday will see things going back to normal. |
|
|
|
Canadian_Nickle
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
938 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2007 : 19:58:59
|
UBS are idiots. Comodity prices don't have "ceilings." That's an equities term for the plateau a mature issue reaches when it finds its long-term P/E ratio. Of course, nobody in today's market cares about P/E, because they're all speculators.
________________________
"A nickel's nothing to scoff at."
C. Montgomery Burns
HoardCode0.1: M28/5CAON:CA5Ni35000:CA1Cu1200:CA100Ag345:
CA10Ag250:CA50Ag100:CA25Ag30:CA500Ag48:US100Ag20:CA1000Ag16
How to read a HoardCode:
You must be logged in to see this link. |
|
|
|
Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
4841 Posts |
Posted - 03/16/2007 : 20:47:03
|
It was not very long ago they were calling for a huge drop in the base metal prices by the end of this decade. Truth be told, they don't want to encourage speculators in the base metal markets.
************************
For good times to come or bad times to come, now is the time to save your copper or nickel coins. |
|
|
|
HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
6807 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2007 : 11:44:26
|
Glad to see Tin going up too. We sell a few tons of that a week from work. Always good to see the company you work for make a profit. That way they can give me more money and I can buy more pennies and nickels.
"Tin - The poor man's nickel"
"Preserving coinage.. 2 tons at a time"
M48/14USCA:US1Cu659700:US5Ni20560 |
|
|
|
Frugi
Administrator
USA
627 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2007 : 12:00:02
|
Wow!!! Ni is taking off. I am getting depressed about selling all the Ni that I did at $20.00/lb. I think very soon we will start to see alot of hoarding going on, alot more people talking about it, we will start seeing it disapear, especially if US nickels keep being advertised as going up in value ($0.086 as of 03-16-07). I saw this on Coinflation and thought it was a great read:
You must be logged in to see this link.
Are skyrocketing nickel prices predicting war with China?
By Alec Nevalainen
Published March 17, 2007
The price of nickel closed at $22.3394/lb on Friday March 16, an all-time high. In one year, the price has risen 337%. Nothing is normal about this parabolic price action.
The recent price surge is strange because many in the mainstream financial community are forecasting a commodity price correction or at least a mild recession later this year. We're also in the middle of a confirmed housing/construction slowdown and you have to wonder why the base metals aren't trending lower instead of setting all-time highs.
Perhaps the U.S. economy has lost enough relevance and a regional slowdown means little to global demand. Or maybe base metal stockpiles are still too low, and mine supply can't raise enough production to meet even marginal demand.
Those are plausible explanations, but the markets could be telling us something else.
Nickel's primary use (65%) is in the manufacturing of stainless steel, with a further 20% of nickel consumption being used to produce other steel and non-ferrous alloys, including super alloys which are used primarily in military aerospace applications. [ 1 ]
More important, nickel is absolutely critical to fight a sustained war. Nickel-plated armor for tanks and vehicles, super alloys for new military aircraft, and stainless steel for everything else including submarines and other traditional weapons. The best example of nickel's wartime value is when the U.S. changed the composition of the five-cent coin from copper-nickel to a mixture of silver, copper, and manganese during World War II.
China's appetite for nickel is not a secret. But the more intriguing question is what percentage of nickel demand is meant for infrastructure development versus military capability? Its rising buildup even prompted the U.S. Administration to openly question why its ongoing military expansion is necessary.
Am I suggesting China is preparing to declare war against the U.S.? No, of course not. We're already at war with China and they seemingly control both sides of the chess board.
The industrial capability required to fight a sustained war are being gleefully dismantled and shipped to China in the name of rising corporate profits. The world's natural resources are being bought and contractually committed to the Chinese economy/military. We're also shipping barges of scrap metal (from our infrastructure) to their ports because they're paying premiums over the spot price. To top it off, China owns over a trillion dollars in U.S. treasury debt. Do you really think all of this is innocent?
The argument that China has too much to lose if U.S. markets suffer has little merit. This isn't about the success of the Chinese people, but the megalomania of its communist leadership. I believe China's agenda and ambition are strikingly similar to the neoconservative goal to reshape the Middle East (with similar regard to human life), but with more patience and calculation.
But why is the U.S. willingly handing the keys of the nation over to China? It's due to the naive belief in orderly free markets, capitalism, and global stability in every context. They're using our greed for "paper profits" to their advantage and will likely change the rules when it suits their interests.
The fact that the U.S. military is bogged down in Afghanistan/Iraq and becoming weaker is emboldening our real enemies: China (and Russia). Cave dwellers with a bank account and the Iraqi people are nuisances compared to the capability of our true enemies. If Iran enters the picture, it's unclear how the U.S. can come away without being exponentially weaker against larger threats. The only problem is that the U.S. is too occupied to recognize the larger threat. China and Russia are becoming stronger, the U.S. is becoming weaker.
The price of nickel is an example of China's appetite and relentless acquisition of natural resources around the world. Its military buildup is not benign, and the ability to defend ourselves is voluntarily waning.
China's plan for dominance seems to be in full swing. In the end, we won't have the industrial capacity or natural resources to adequately defend ourselves in a sustained world war... and this is not by accident.
Alec Nevalainen
Email: nevalainen@gmail.com
Web: You must be logged in to see this link.
Real Eyes Realize Real Lies
Buy Less. Work Less. Live More.
You must be logged in to see this link. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/17/2007 : 13:07:42
|
Good post Frugi,
The Chinese are building oil storage facilities to smooth out any oil shortage they may face,
the Chinese are usung their US Dollars to buy metal supplies left & right,
it would only make sense for the Chinese to buy nickel for their future needs, either peaceful or otherwise.
While the topic is precious metals, news and views, posting base metal news and views is welcome,
because with the way prices are going, every metal will be selling for a premium.
(Zinc and tin, the poor man's nickel? The future should be very interesting indeed.)
|
|
|
|
n/a
deleted
479 Posts |
Posted - 03/18/2007 : 16:20:26
|
Let us not forget what our own "stategic petroleum reserve" is for.
It is, in the final analysis, "stategic".
Let's be clear about this.
If oil stopped flowing around the globe, what do you beleive that the oil in the salt domes of Louisiana would be used to power?
My guess is, Fighter Jets, Humvees, armoured personnel carriers, diesel frigates, diesel troop transport ships, etc.
My guess is that there would not be a single drop available for consumption by civilians, period.
Let's be clear about the word, "stategic".
I think I know what that means.
My guess is that China is doing the exact same thing.
I assume that they are creating a "stategic" stockpile for their military, not for their civilians.
..................................................................................................
You must be logged in to see this link.
Paul Craig Roberts urges people to
DUMP DOLLARS! |
Edited by - n/a on 03/18/2007 16:21:12 |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/21/2007 : 19:54:06
|
Gold news
You must be logged in to see this link.
Gold Rises as Dollar Weakens on Fed's Interest-Rate Signals
By Pham-Duy Nguyen
March 21 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in New York rose after Federal Reserve officials unexpectedly abandoned their bias toward higher interest rates, weakening the dollar and boosting the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.
Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. currency, which dropped to a two-year low against the euro after the Fed made its announcement at 2:15 p.m. New York time. The dollar has fallen 1.3 percent against the euro this year, while gold has gained 3.9 percent.
``The dollar weakness is the catalyst for gold's gains,'' said Frank Lesh, a trader at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago. ``We've upped our odds for rate cuts in the second half.''
Gold futures for April delivery rose $4.80, or 0.7 percent, to $663.80 an ounce at 2:59 p.m. in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices settled at $660 at the end of floor trading, the highest since March 1.
``Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said. While inflation is the ``predominant'' concern, the statement dropped a reference to ``additional firming,'' language used since June. The Fed has held interest rates at 5.25 percent since June.
************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Ruthenium to punch through $1,000
LITTLE known platinum group metal, ruthenium, is a handy indicator of just how deep the commodities boom has penetrated.
Soaring demand for hard disk storage drives means the ruthenium price recently broke through the $700/oz mark for the first time ever. That’s because ruthenium is a key coating material in the manufacture of hard drives and thanks to a change from “longitudinal magnetic recording” to “perpendicular magnetic recording” the thickness of ruthenium coatings has doubled.
Yet there was a time when ruthenium was regarded as a nuisance. With historical prices ranging between $50/oz and $200/oz, ruthenium often had to be stockpiled until the selling price had reached attractive levels.
But JPMorgan now reckons this former nuisance metal could become a handy “profit kicker” for South African platinum miners, particularly those exposed to UG2 reefs where ruthenium is most plentiful.
“We believe there’s a good chance that this forgotten metal will move into four digits soon,” said JP Morgan in a recent report.
So investors might want to keep a close eye on the likes of Lonmin (with 75% of operations exposed to UG2), Implats and Angloplat (50%) and Northam (35%).
************************************************************
Now its silver junior's turn to have a setback, nothing to sweat about, silver and gold are turning around
You must be logged in to see this link.
Base metals lower, dragged down by nickel
Excerpt
Nickel, which posted new record highs in every trading day last week, has declined by some 4,000 usd a tonne this week alone and is some 10 pct off an all time high of 48,500 usd set last Friday.
At 11.28 am, LME nickel for 3 month was down at 43,220 usd a tonne against 44,600 usd at the close yesterday.
"We have written in recent commentary that a big correction in nickel would be too hard to ignore, and we still maintain that view," said Man Financial analyst Ed Meir.
He added he expects more nervous trading in the days ahead, "with a likely downward bias until the nickel correction plays itself out".
While a nickel correction has been long overdue, prices are not expected to plunge as stocks remain critically low and as demand from the stainless steel industry – which accounts for 70 pct of nickel consumption – is still strong.
JP Morgan analyst Michael Jansen said while nickel might yet make another run at the 50,000 usd a tonne mark after this correction runs its course, on a longer term view he sees lower prices for the metal.
"We see nickel prices substantially lower over the long term, our 2008 average price forecast for instance is around the 20,000 usd a tonne level, hence we remain bearish," he said.
.......(An analyst is a self described expert
expert, pronounced ex-spurt
ex means former
spurt means a dribble of water
expert= a former drip, and when their analysis
turns out to be wrong, everybody knows they are
all wet! |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/21/2007 : 20:05:50
|
You must be logged in to see this link.
Ruthenium price soaring to great heights, say marketers
The price frenzy around ruthenium has come like a bolt from of the blue.
Not that long ago this platinum-group metal (PGM) was regarded as something of a nuisance.
Now many producers expect the price of the silver-grey metal with the atomic number 44 to hit the $1 000/oz mark.
It is poised to become a profit-kicker.
Three years ago, it was fetching a mere $35/oz; now, those who get it for $800/oz, consider themselves lucky.
Marketers put the latest specific mushrooming of the ruthenium price down to the ability of electronic companies to produce enhanced memory capability from it, which has effectively doubled its use.
On the back of that, there has been speculative buying and a backlog of electronic orders, all adding to the rise of its price and yet another demonstrable example of the treasure chest of precious metals that is buried below South Africa's Bushveld Complex.
Ruthenium, which is derived from the Latin for 'Russia', is said to have been discovered by Russian Karl Klaus in 1844 and has traditionally been associated with the hardening of alloys of palladium and platinum. But Impala Platinum marketing executive Derek Engelbrecht tells Mining Weekly that there are many new applications envisaged, in addition, even, to the latest electronic-memory use that has been a price-kicker.
Engelbrecht reports that ruthenium is also being considered in alloys for aerospace where the heat generated is unable to be withstood by normal alloys. It has a high melting point of
2,310 °C and a boiling point of 4,080 °C and is now being considered in alloys that need to withstand intense heat.
In the automotive industry, a nickel- ruthenium alloy is expected to allow cars to 'talk' to each other, with ruthenium- containing sensors warning of impending danger in the event of one car getting too close to another.
"These are not applications that are just around the corner, but they are being spoken about," says Engelbrecht.
Already, plasma screens have a coating of the metal, ruthenium paste being responsible for the blackness of plasma screens.
But, as is customary whenever the prices of PGMs rise high, thrifting has already set in. Du Pont, the only manufacturer of the plasma-screen paste, has already found a way of using less ruthenium from 2008.
"These things are just feeding the frenzy," Engelbrecht tells Mining Weekly.
Also, there is bound to be greater recycling of ruthenium now that the price has risen, which will have the effect of increasing supply and, consequently, lowering the price still further.
Because of the rise in price, there has also been a loss of some of the more price-sensitive chemical applications of ruthenium, which will once more apply downward price pressure.
But Engelbrecht is not ruling out more upward price pressure in the short term.
"I think $1 000/oz is a possibility," he says.
But he does not believe that there is much chance of the price remaining that high.
"Eventually it has to come off. It can't just keep going up, but the question, of course, is when will it come off and what will it do before it comes off," says Engelbrecht.
He cites the ruthenium case as yet another advantage of being in the PGM business, which is characterised by individual PGMs regularly coming to the party to rival platinum's dominance, as has been seen lately with the rising prices of both rhodium and nickel.
The sale of ruthenium has represented only $31-million a year to Impala Platinum in the latest calculation, but that is poised to change on an annual basis to just short of $250-million.
In general, however, PGM prices have been doing exceptionally well, the dollar basket prices increasing by 46% last year, taking in platinum, palladium, rhodium and nickel.
"Very exciting times," says Engelbrecht.
Northam Platinum marketing manager Jerry White says that the "fortunes of ruthenium" have been an interesting feature of the past six months.
He points out that in 2003 the price of ruthenium was only $35/oz, but in the six months to December, it trended from $165/oz to $620/oz and is now trading in the $800/oz range.
"The reason for the specific mushrooming of the price has been the ability of electronic companies to produce enhanced memory capability from ruthenium," says White.
This is known as "perpendicular magnetic recording" and it has driven the price to levels that White believes are likely to persist.
He points to speculative buying and a good backlog of electronic orders all adding further price support.
He puts ruthenium's contribution to Northam's bottom line in the six months to December at R33-million. JP Morgan's precious-metals analyst, Steve Shepherd, has been so taken with the surging ruthenium price that he did a paper entitled The forgotten platinum-group metal – ruthenium up, up and away.
In it, he writes: "Ruthenium rarely, if ever, gets a mention. Only Lonmin has ever specifically detailed production. AngloPlat does not even include it in its published 'prill split' analysis, which proportions the various PGMs in the ore mined. But from other miners' splits, we observe that ruthenium occurs in significant quantities – particularly in UG2 reefs," he reports.
For example, at Impala, near Rustenburg in the Western Bushveld, ruthenium constitutes some 13,6% of the platinum-group elements in UG2 ore, 47,3% for platinum, 25,8% for palladium and 8,9% for rhodium.
"There is a very good chance that this forgotten metal will move well into four digits soon," Shepherd prognosticates. He cites the reason as the new technology in data storage hard disk drives, where ruthenium is a key coating material.
He says the change from "longitudinal magnetic recording" to "perpendicular magnetic recording" has meant that the layer thickness of ruthenium has been doubled.
"We can recall when some producers considered ruthenium something of a 'nuisance'. There were periods when it used to accomeulate owing to limited demand.
"Recent price action suggests to us that the producers' cupboards may now be bare, implying a tight market. And since a ruthenium micro- coating on a hard drive is likely to be a relatively insignificant cost factor in producing them, we doubt there will be a great deal of price sensitivity in this application," he reports, postulating that any substitution of ruthenium will take place in other obscure and relatively small industrial applications. He is not aware of any widely available analysis of "this forgotten metal" – and found hard data "extremely" difficult to come by, with disclosure by both producers and users virtually nonexistent. "But based on our analysis of the rhodium market, we estimate that the annual ruthenium supply may be of the order of one-million ounces a year – we must stress that this is a rough estimate.
"In an attempt to understand the potential impact of price movements in this metal, we have estimated the impact on Impala Platinum Mines' revenue. "We estimate that every $100/oz increment in the price of ruthenium lifts the mine's revenue by some $18-million, based on annual production that we calculated to be some 180 000 oz in the financial year of 2006, when Impala's total revenue was R11 054-million.
"So, for a $100/oz ruthenium price increase, we estimate the revenue line will have moved by some R115-million at the average exchange rate achieved of R6,37:$," he reports. At the 2006 average price of $695/oz, Implats's top line may have increased by some R670-million, or 4%, and earnings would likely have been boosted by about R450-million, which is by more than 10%.
But Implats also has the IRS subsidiary, which recycles PGMs, as well as other mines: "Most of IRS's key, concentrate offtake agreements were concluded when ruthenium was considered a 'nuisance', so, logically, this implies to us that vendors of concentrate would not have been able to negotiate a good deal for this metal. "If they were to receive, say, 80% of the contained metal value for platinum, we contemplate what they may have had to accept for ruthenium – maybe way less than 70%! "If this is correct, then Implats could be 'coining it' on the ruthenium it produces from its concentrate suppliers," Shepherd points out. "Last year, Implats produced some 527 000 oz of platinum from concentrate bought, which suggests ruthenium production of more than 50 000 oz. "Remember, ruthenium grades are much higher in UG2 reef than in Merensky reef – approximately double. IRS mostly buys UG2 concentrate and Impala, Rustenburg, produces a 50:50 mix of these two reefs.
"If our theory about the ruthenium market proves correct, we foresee a significant profit-kicker emerging here, in a commodity suite that already enjoys robust fundamentals.
"The biggest beneficiaries stand to be miners and processors most weighted to UG2 production. Lonmin mines about 75% UG2, Implats and AngloPlat about 50% and Northam about 35%. Both Implats and AngloPlat have substantial third-party concentrate offtake businesses. Lonmin is the only producer currently that discloses ruthenium production, and then only very recently," says Shepherd, who suspects that disclosure on ruthenium is about to increase.
All this could also have the encyclopaedias rushing to revise their bland description of ruthenium's major commercial uses as being in electrical contacts, jewellery and fountain-pen tips – and as an element generally found in ores in the Ural mountains and in North and South America.
....Platinum can be found and recycled in catalytic converters, maybe there will be Ruthenium recycling going on in the near future. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 03/21/2007 20:08:21 |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/22/2007 : 17:55:18
|
File this under views instead of news concerning silver junior.
You must be logged in to see this link.
Quote/viewpoint:
"China more than doubled imports in February from a year ago to 152,651 tons, the Beijing-based customs office said today."
Isn't it strange that every couple of months that China announces a slow down and metals tank ....later an announcement quietly surfaces like the one above...what a bunch of liars...
Nickel inventories on LME still at the 4000 tonne level and that tells me there is a shortage....and that there are forces at work that want what is left for cheap...
Good luck to all...
Another view
You must be logged in to see this link.
Still not able to verify the Metal Bulletin report this morning about Jinchuan dumping nickel on the LME to cover shorts.
No one else seems to be talking about it. However, the fact the LCH raised margins on nickel today (see below), does tend to make us believe something is up.
same site, another post
China's nickel demand seen rising 20 pct in 2007 - "China's demand for nickel may rise 20 percent this year and output is likely to surge 36 percent amid higher production of high-iron ferro-nickel, a senior analyst at a state-owned research group said on Thursday."
also
Dow Jones Newswire News Bite - "LME nickel jumps following news overnight from a Chinese research firm that Chinese demand for nickel may rise 20% in '07, says a trader. Also, news of possible supply-side disruptions to nickel stocks in Australia adds to upside momentum, the trader adds."
|
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/23/2007 : 18:28:26
|
Speed bump for gold
You must be logged in to see this link.
UPDATE 6-Gold slips 1.5 pct on dollar rise after U.S. data
LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - Gold fell 1.5 percent on Friday from its previous session's three-week high, as a rise in the dollar after better-than-expected U.S. existing home sales prompted investors to take profits ahead of the weekend.
But traders said the drop would be limited because of firmer oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Silver and the platinum group metals also followed gold to trade lower.
"The dollar moved after the U.S. housing data and that was bearish for gold. It's profit-taking as well on the moves we have seen recently," said a precious metals dealer in London.
The dollar rose slightly against the euro, after news of a surprise jump in U.S. existing home sales, beating expectations for a decline from the previous month.
.......(housing looked good, so the speculators jumped out of gold into dollars, short term thinking at its worst)
*******************************************************
Speed bump for silver junior
You must be logged in to see this link.
LME nickel ends sharply lower on profit-taking; Tin up
London Metal Exchange nickel took center stage Friday as fund long liquidation sent prices tumbling 6%, and the weakness could extend to early next week as buyers opt to stay on the sidelines, said traders.
Three-month nickel fell to a low of $42,100 a metric ton, down over 6% as fund liquidation and profit-taking ahead of the weekend and the end of the quarter next week weighed on prices, said traders. Nickel has fallen some 12% since hitting a record high of $48,500/ton last week.
If prices break below the $42,000/ton level, the next level of support is $39,000/ton, said one London trader. "There's fear that Friday's big fall may chill buyers interest for next week," the trader added.
Adding to downward pressure, LME inventories are up almost 30% since mid-February levels, but they still only account for a little over one day's worth of global nickel consumption.
UBS said in a daily report that speculation was rife that the recent increase in LME nickel stocks was due to deliveries by Norilsk Nickel, of full plate into Rotterdam warehouses, and by Jinchuan, of full plate into Busan warehouses.
In other metals, three-month tin surged to a record high of $14,345/ton earlier Friday due to falling inventories that have fallen some 24% from the start of 2007.
Supply issues have been ongoing since October, when the Indonesian government closed a number of small smelters over allegations they were purchasing tin ore illegally, damaging the environment, and evading taxes.
Three-month copper was also able to hold up against the weakness seen in nickel due primarily to a sharp drawdown in LME copper stocks Friday. The metal pushed up above $6,800/ton before retreating to a PM kerb of $6,720/ton.
Given the return of Chinese buyers to the market, copper prices have appreciated strongly during the past few weeks, said Michael Widmer of Calyon.
LME copper stocks have fallen over 10% from month-ago levels.
***************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Palladium becoming more popular in China
Is palladium the new platinum? Jewelers in this country may balk, but for cost-conscious jewelry makers in China, the answer is increasingly yes.
The price of platinum's cheaper, lesser known cousin has risen sharply in the market over the past few years on growing demand from the industrial and investment sectors. But the silvery-white metal has recently found a new end market in China – in jewelry, as a platinum substitute.
Palladium has seen expansive growth in the Chinese market as the cost of platinum has risen beyond the reach of the country's less affluent consumers, and market analysts expect to see additional growth this year.
"We are palladium bulls," JPMorgan analyst Steve Shepherd said in a recent report. "We would argue the potential exists for explosive growth in the fledgling palladium jewelry market – a market which seemed to appear from nowhere three years ago, in China."
Palladium prices peaked last year at $396.50 ounce in May – as most metals did amid sharp gains in the commodities bull market of early last year. After coming down slightly from the peak, the metal has begun its climb again in 2007.
Palladium started the year at $325 an ounce and has risen about 8 percent to $352 since then. Platinum has made a similar move, from $1,135 in January to about $1,232 currently. The two metals are coincidental; a mine of one typically produces a certain amount of the other.
Chinese demand for palladium – like Chinese demand for nearly every commodity – has contributed to its rapid price appreciation. In particular, the country's demand for palladium in jewelry has surged as platinum has become more expensive.
Demand for palladium in jewelry stood at about 250,000 ounces worldwide in 2003, mostly due to its use as an alloy with other metals and roughly static with where it had been for years. Then demand ballooned to 920,000 ounces in 2004. It surged again in 2005 to 1.43 million ounces.
"You've added 1 million ounces to demand in a two-year period," said HSBC analyst Victor Flores. "That is the effect of China jumping into the market."
Last year, demand slipped as China dipped into the stockpiles it created in the two previous years of growth. But analysts expect Chinese demand for palladium jewelry to increase again this year.
In the U.S., and around most of the world, palladium is used primarily as an autocatalyst in gasoline-fueled engines. Automakers have increasingly turned to palladium as a partial substitute for platinum in catalytic converters to reduce costs.
Demand for palladium in jewelry in the U.S. is virtually nonexistent. But at least one American company has been trying to boost palladium's popularity across the Pacific, where the trend is nascent but potentially growing.
Stillwater Mining Co. mines palladium and platinum in the mountains of south-central Montana. High market prices for the metals helped propel the company to a $2.8 million profit in the fourth quarter, reversing a year-ago loss. Frank McAllister, Stillwater's chairman and chief executive, has trumpeted the use of palladium in jewelry.
Last year, the Billings, Mont.-based company launched a campaign to promote palladium jewelry in China, with advertisements in Beijing and Shanghai. Yet Stillwater sells all the palladium it produces to the auto industry.
Why hawk baubles when your end market is engines?
"It raises the price," he said. "We know there has been excess inventory in the marketplace, and obviously this is a good source of demand."
Unlike supplies of many other metals today, palladium supply on the world market is robust. Russia in particular is sitting on a great deal of inventory. Sparking a new source of demand for palladium, such as for jewelry, could help cut down supply and lift prices further.
So far demand for palladium in jewelry has been largely confined to China's secondary cities – not trendsetting areas like Beijing or Shanghai, McAllister said.
"If you're talking about the fashion jewelry market, the higher the price of platinum, the less presence it has at that (lower) end of the market. Palladium is a good alternative at that level," said Jeremy Coombes, a spokesman for platinum distributor Johnson Matthey spokesman.
The metal has yet to make a real entrance into China's more prosperous markets, or in the U.S. for that matter.
But palladium has had its day here, too. The metal enjoyed favor in this country during World War II, when jewelry makers switched to palladium when platinum was stockpiled for the war effort.
Whether palladium's popularity as a platinum jewelry substitute spreads will depend on whether consumers will still buy the metal at today's higher prices, said HSBC's Flores. It may also depend on whether the trend gains traction in other markets, beyond China's outlying cities.
|
Edited by - pencilvanian on 03/23/2007 18:31:10 |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/26/2007 : 15:54:31
|
You must be logged in to see this link.
Nickel, tin futures move to new highs
London Metal Exchange nickel Monday defied expectations of a selloff, and tin continued to make fresh highs.
The fundamentals of both metals are still bullish, but industry participants are increasingly voicing concerns that nickel's bull run is looking unsustainable.
LME nickel prices are at near record highs, having risen 62% since the start of the year to peak on March 16 at $48,500 a metric ton. The bull run started last year and was driven by dwindling inventories and a lack of fresh supply amid strong demand from the stainless sector and China.
But even producers, who would usually be the last to criticize high prices, have started to express the view that the nickel market has run away with itself.
Xstrata Nickel chief executive Ian Pearce said on a conference call earlier Monday that if nickel prices "continue to go considerably higher than we're possibly going to get demand destruction in the stainless steel sector going forward, which will hit consumption."
"Yes, there's upside potential for nickel prices, but our view of the market's fundamentals relate to the long-term value of nickel going forward," he said, adding that current prices are "unsustainable in the long term."
His comments echo concerns by China's Jinchuan Group Ltd. last week that nickel prices are becoming distorted by speculative and investment fund activity. He also warned of the risk of substitution away from nickel as a result.
The market largely "shrugged off the doom and gloom," an LME dealer said, and ended the kerb session at $42,495/ton, up3% on the day after an earlier two-week low.
A slight decline in nickel stocks and unconfirmed reports by sources close to Brazil's CVRD that its Goro project won't start production until 2011 and will likely not ramp up to full capacity for a further three to four years, underpinned prices.
"The market's precariously poised and could go either way again," a London broker added.
Tin continued to establish a fresh record high of $14,575/ton in illiquid conditions, with worries over future production at mines in Indonesia attracting very light consumer and trade interest.
Licenses allowing foreign companies to develop mines were due to be issued at the end of March but a parliamentary recess will likely delay their approval, further exacerbating the already tight market.
The other base metals were relatively quiet and continued to consolidate in recent ranges.
Momentum buying lifted LME copper away from intraday low and but a slump in new home sales in the U.S. capped the market's upside and left prices to close at $6,851/ton.
**************************************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Gold futures advance, supported by higher crude
Gold futures closed Monday with a 1% gain, underpinned by gains in crude-oil prices as tension escalated over the seizure of 15 British navy personnel in the Persian Gulf by Iranian forces.
An unexpected decline in new U.S. homes sales for February contributed to the precious metal's advance.
Gold for April delivery closed up $6.60 at $663.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after peaking at $664.70. The contract, however, failed to recoup all of Friday's $6.90 decline. On Thursday, the contract touched a three-week, intraday high of $667.30.
"Further U.S. housing jitters have helped bolster gold and the rest of the precious [metals] complex ... after new homes sales fell to a seven-year low during February," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
"Energy prices have also been providing background support," he said in an e-mailed note to clients Monday afternoon.
Gold has run into technical resistance above $661, "however, the combination of rising energy prices, softer dollar, coupled with the backdrop of increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East does create a positive environment for gold," said Moore.
Iranian forces seized 15 British sailors at gunpoint on Friday. British and Iraqi authorities say the sailors were in Iraqi waters when they were captured. U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair has called for their release, warning Iran that he views the fate of the seamen as a "fundamental issue." Iran, in turn, said the sailors could be charged with illegally entering Iranian waters.
The incident has exacerbated tension between Iran and Western nations, which have clashed over Iran's nuclear development program. On Saturday, the United Nations Security Council endorsed another package of sanctions against Iran for refusing to comply with international demands that it cease enriching uranium.
"As the U.K.-Iran impasse deepened, gold prices finally showed some of the reaction they failed to exhibit last Friday," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco.com, in e-mailed commentary. On Friday, April gold closed lower for the first time in seven sessions, but still ended the week with a gain of more than $3.
Against this backdrop, crude-oil futures rose to their highest level in over two weeks Monday, buoyed by mounting tensions between Iran and the U.K. over the detention of the sailors. May crude rose as high as $63.30 a barrel, its strongest intraday level since March 8 and the highest level for a front-month crude contract so far this year.
"Bullion is higher, helped by higher oil prices, which makes gold more attractive as a hedge against inflation," said analysts at Action Economics.
Adding support to gold, the dollar fell against the euro and yen Monday, erasing early gains after a government report showed sales of new-homes fell to their lowest level since 2000 last month,
Sales of newly constructed U.S. housing unexpectedly slowed again in February, falling 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000, the lowest level since June 2000, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Silver and copper were the biggest gainers among the metals prices Monday.
May silver was up 1.4%, or 18.3 cents, to close at $13.41 an ounce, while May copper added 2.3%, or 6.95 cents, to end at $3.1385 a pound after reaching a high of $3.14, its highest level since mid-December.
"The market has been driven by inventories falling again on the LME [London Metal Exchange] – down for the 12th successive day now – and with physical demand reasonable in all regions, this trend is likely to continue in the short-term," Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com said in e-mailed comments.
Other metals prices were mixed. April platinum rose $3.10 to close at $1,236.50 an ounce but June palladium fell 50 cents to finish at $359 an ounce.
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks fell 197 troy ounces to stand at 7.58 million troy ounces and copper supplies fell 386 short tons to stand at 36,115 short tons as of late Friday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies rose 1.8 million troy ounces to hit 123 million troy ounces.
|
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/27/2007 : 16:50:53
|
You must be logged in to see this link.
Gold closes lower, tracking crude price pullback
Gold futures closed lower Tuesday, tracking a pullback in crude-oil prices a day after a strong rally sparked by tensions between Iran and the U.K. over the seizure of 15 British seamen by armed Iranians in the Persian Gulf.
A bigger-than-expected decline in U.S. consumer confidence data failed to buoy demand for the precious metal.
Gold for April delivery closed down $1.40 at $662.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Another largely sideways day has been seen in the precious metals despite a weaker than expected confidence reading from the New York Conference board," said James Moore, metals analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
The consumer confidence index fell to 107.2 in March from a revised reading of 111.2 in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a decline to about 108.6.
"Both oil and the dollar will provide intra-day direction, while traders now will likely wait for Bernanke testimony tomorrow and the impact it might have on the greenback," said Moore.
The dollar fell against the euro and the yen, pressured by the poor U.S. consumer confidence reading. A separate report showed an unexpected rise in the business climate in Germany, Europe's biggest economy.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify on the nation's economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill.
"Bullion market participants expect they will get a better sense of gold's immediate trading direction once they hear from Mr. Bernanke again regarding the state of the U.S. economy," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco.com.
Diplomatic heat's on
Gold prices are meeting strong resistance between $664 and $666, though the continuing stand-off between Iran and Britain may spark further safe-haven buying, Moore said.
In energy trading, crude futures edged lower but held close to $63 a barrel and remain underpinned by global political risk. Crude for May delivery was down 33 cents at $62.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The United Kingdom increased pressure on Iran to free the navy personnel taken prisoner by armed Iranian forces last week, but London's keen to prevent the situation from escalating, the BBC reported on its Web site.
Prime Minister Tony Blair warned that efforts will enter a "different phase" if diplomatic moves fail. Iran says the sailors were trespassing in Iranian waters when they were seized last Friday, while the U.K. says the group was in Iraqi waters at the time.
Other metals prices were mainly lower. May silver ended down 13 cents at $13.28 an ounce, June palladium fell $3 at $356 an ounce and May copper ended down 8.10 cents at $3.0575 a pound. April platinum gained $5.50 at $1,242 an ounce.
On the supply side, gold warehouse stocks fell 197 troy ounces to stand at 7.58 million troy ounces and copper supplies fell 386 short tons to stand at 36,115 short tons as of late Monday, according to Nymex data. Silver supplies fell 248,601 troy ounces to hit 122.8 million troy ounces.
Newmont Mining Corp., the only gold mining company in the S&P 500, will face problems maintaining its current output of gold over the medium to long-term without more acquisitions or grass-roots discoveries, said HSBC analyst Victor Flores Tuesday.
Citing this hurdle and higher costs for labor and raw materials, he downgraded his rating to neutral from overweight and his year-end 2007 price target to $47 a share from $62. Industry cost pressures have been particularly acute at Newmont because its older mines are producing less high-quality ore, he noted. Shares fell 2.3% to $42.74.
|
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/28/2007 : 17:58:44
|
File this under views instead of news, but it is food for thought.
From the Mogambo Guru himself, we get this:
You must be logged in to see this link.
Quote:
...we go to People's Daily Online to discover the fact that
"the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is offering a gold support price of 28 US dollars per gram."
And how much is that in ounces? Google says that "1 troy ounce = 31.1034768 grams." The Mogambo Arbitrage Sensor (MAS) instantly realizes that if the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe is willing to offer $870 an ounce for gold,
where are the arbitrageurs buying gold in the USA for $660 an ounce and selling it to these idiots in Zimbabwe for $870? It seems (I say with arched eyebrow) too nice of a juicy plum to turn down!
The fact is that there are surely tariffs, duties, fees, legal issues and taxes enough to make a complete mockery of the bank offering a "support price of $28 US dollars per gram", or else that bank would be up to its knees in gold bullion right now!
In a more realistic vein, AllAfrica.com writes that, that in local currency,
"current gold producer price stands at Zim$16,000 per gram."
This is the producer price, which works out to Zim$497,655.63 per ounce.
Zimbabwe Miners Federation (ZMF) president George Kawonza, says "with the inflation rate standing at 1,729.9% we agreed that the gold price should be pegged at around Zim$180,000 per gram", which comes out to Zim$5,598,625.86 per ounce,(!!!)
although with inflation raging at almost 2,000% per year, there is no exact "price" for anything, although I imagine that gold selling for around Zim$6 million per ounce comes close enough.
So, given the fact that less than twenty years ago the Zimbabwe dollar and the U.S. dollar had roughly the same value, and thus gold was priced the same in U.S. dollars and in Zimbabwe dollars, I would say
"He11, yes, the value of gold has preserved its buying power! And not only that, but everything else in the damned country has turned into worthless cr@p, which makes the miracle of gold even more spectacular! Hahaha!
.........(5.5 million in currency for an ounce of gold?  I can't even think such a thing is possible. Sounds like Weimar part II) |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 03/28/2007 18:03:23 |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2007 : 07:38:57
|
You must be logged in to see this link.
Mexico again a prime target for silver miners
Mining on the old Mexican silver belt is seeing something of a revival as North American headquartered mining companies look at bulk mining the lower grade material ignored by many of the old Mexican mine operators.
Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Wednesday , 28 Mar 2007
LONDON -
At the MCL 20:20 Silver Day held in London this week it was perhaps significant that of the seven companies making presentations to the audience of brokers, analysts, fund managers, press and fellow miners, four (First Majestic, Arian, Excellon and Scorpio) were focusing almost entirely on Mexico and were already producing silver or had late stage projects in progress, while two others, Hecla and Sterling, were looking to Mexico as a route for expanding silver output additional to their existing North American projects and operations.
Historically Mexico has always been one of the world's top silver producers, primarily from the country's silver belt trending mainly northwest/southeast and centred on the city of Zacatecas in the centre of the country. But much of the mining has been relatively small scale on some of the extremely high grade material which has been found along this silver trend which runs for hundreds of miles. Now with the recent runup in the price of silver, North American companies in particular have been attracted to this area which has the advantage of boasting good local infrastructure, a potential workforce with good mining experience and a relatively stable political environment.
Few of these old mining properties have anything approaching a modern standard resource estimate, but the initial determinations by the companies involved suggest that the amount of silver still in the ground is very substantial indeed - most of it being considered too low grade to mine in the old days, but nowadays with modern mining and processing techniques can be mined extremely profitably, particularly with the sliver price at the current high levels.
Indeed many observers view the outlook for silver as being far better than that for gold - and the outlook for the gold price is generally considered extremely bullish.
Some of the resources being exposed by this new generation of Mexican mine operators are quite substantial. With most of the deposits being vein deposits, but surrounded with disseminated mineralisation, some of the tonnage potential for bulk mining operations on surface and underground makes for strong mining cases.
Yet there is still good high grade material to be found too - as witness Excellon's 1,546 g/tonne silver (with associated lead and zinc) average grade over the past year and a half of production.
Old mine tailings are also proving an attraction with material grading 200 g/tonne or more not unheard of.
With the precious metal mineralisation being worked nearer the surface, some geologists suggest that grades may decrease at depth, with base metals grades increasing,
but others say that the good silver mineralisation continues at depth. This makes for additional potential as the older Mexican mines seldom went deep - indeed some stopped at the water table.
....Old mine tailings, the waste rock dug from the mine, dumped in a pile and left more or less forgotten. I recall reading that in the western US, that metal detector hobbyists would go through these tailings near abandooned mines and find the gold and silver the old timers missed.
(Going into the abandoned mines was warned against since
cave-ins were common.)
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 03/31/2007 07:42:59 |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2007 : 20:02:01
|
Silver Junior
You must be logged in to see this link.
Nickel prices on fire
Prices are now up 1000% in six years, further locking the horns between speculators and fundamental investors.
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Monday , 26 Mar 2007
JOHANNESBURG -
Investors don't like to kid around about nickel: prices have risen from just over $2/pound late in 2001 to fresh recent records above $22/pound. London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel inventories are at record lows of less than one day's supply. This year alone, nickel prices for cash delivery have soared 32%.
But as one analyst puts it, "prices at these levels will likely lead to nickel demand destruction which strangely will probably help with stock rationing in what is viewed as a tight market". Most mined nickel ends up in stainless steel, a market that continues to steam along. Prices for US hot rolled stainless steel rose from around $200 a ton early in 2002 to over $700 recently.
The stainless steel industry enjoyed a fantastic 2006, with production expanding almost 16%. This unsustainable growth has slowed this year, not least on a cooling US economy, but demand in Asia remains buoyant. US hot rolled stainless steel has retraced to around the $550 a ton mark.
In the trading pits, the majority of speculators profess to prefer remaining in "watch" mode over nickel. There have been plenty of burnt fingers during nickel's bull market, but, as one trader puts it, "a merger, a small stock draw and a large warrant cancellation and suddenly nickel finds itself in favour again. Its incredible how much bullish news has come out overnight for nickel".
Monday saw the announcement that Xstrata has bid $4bn in cash for LionOre. The friendly bid is likely to prove to be nothing more than an opening salvo, with the likes of BHP Billiton lurking in the background with possible counter bids. Beyond the primary producers of nickel, not least Russia's Norilsk, South Africa's platinum mines continue to enjoy a lucrative side income from a secondary by-product.
On the fundamentals,
nickel prices are seen as solidly supported by consolidation in the industry,
strong stainless steel demand,
and expected start-up delays and cost overruns at Goro, Raventhorpe, Vermelho and a number of other development projects.
Analysts expect nickel to average around $16/pound this year, falling to $10 a pound during 2010.
Most analysts have also pushed up the very long term forecast for nickel to around $5/pound, not least on the view that such prices are required to ensure a reasonable return to develop new - mainly laterite - nickel mines.
Capital expenditure inflation - mainly on the back of higher energy and (ironically) stainless steel costs - have forced the reorganization of industry cost curves.
For the bulls, China takes pride of place.
The country dominates the global nickel sector, ranking world No 1 both as consumer of nickel and as largest stainless steel producer.
Jim Lennon of Macquarie Bank reckons that China's share of nickel demand will rise to 33% by 2011, from 18% in 2006.
There are bears, such as Jacques Bacardatf, president of France's Eramet S.A., who on Monday told Dow Jones Newswires that his company was budgeting for a nickel price of $10/pound this year. He "expects prices to slide in the future". The fuller picture is that Eramet earlier went public on its hedging positions, and would logically like to see longs (bulls) turn negative on nickel.
........The bulls are always right (until they are not)
The bears are always wrong (until they are not)
No expert or analyst ever predicted nickel to go up this fast,
yet they have no problem saying nickel will fall in price.
These "analysts" sound much like the opposite of the housing industry,
"housing Always goes up".
Ignore the talking empty heads, keep an eye on the demand and supply, not predictions
and remember:
reality has a way of making analysts and experts eat their words for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 03/31/2007 : 20:39:48
|
You must be logged in to see this link.
Zimbabwe government shuts down gold mine
Zimbabwe’s Globe and Phoenix mine, at one time one of the world’s most productive gold mines, has been closed by Zimbabwe’s authorities as illegal gold miners on the property were undermining local infrastructure.
Author: Frank Jomo
Posted: Thursday , 15 Mar 2007
BLANTYRE -
The Zimbabwe government has closed down one of the country's oldest mines - Globe and Phoenix for failing to meet certain conditions laid down in the country's Environmental Management Act, state-owned Herald newspaper reported today.
Deputy Minister of Environment and Tourism Andrew Langa ordered an immediate closure of the mine situated in Kwekwe, mid way between Harare and Bulawayo when he paid the mine a visit to assess the extent of environmental degradation in the area.
In January this year, Zimbabwe's Environmental Management Agency amended the country's Environmental Management Act in order to check environmental degradation caused by illegal mining.
According to the Herald, Globe and Phoenix Mine - one time the world's biggest gold mine - has been besieged by illegal gold miners who went down the mine shafts to extract gold albeit having no requisite skills or equipment. The paper says that as some of the underground tunnels run under Globe and Phoenix School, there was a danger the building would collapse.
Adding salt to injury, the mine did not have an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report - which is now a prerequisite for miners in the country to have before they start mining operations.
"We are on a programme where we are assessing the environmental degradation caused by mining operations and just bumped into Globe and Phoenix. The situation is worrisome as the environment has been severely damaged," Herald quotes Langa as saying. "The mine did
not have the EIA report and we had no option but to ask them to close shop until they comply with the requirements of the Act.
He hinted that other mines - small or big might face the same predicament.
"The law applies to all mining operations - big or small. It does not matter who owns the mine, it will be closed if they fail to meet the stipulated requirements."
You must be logged in to see this link.
Zimbabwe’s central bank takes over Golden Kopje gold mine
A subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, Carslone (Private) Limited, has taken control of the Golden Kopje mine in south-eastern Zimbabwe after paying a total of Z$4 billion (US$ 16 million) to the owners.
Author: Frank Jomo
Posted: Thursday , 08 Mar 2007
BLANTYRE (Mineweb.com) - A subsidiary of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, Carslone (Private) Limited, has taken control of the Golden Kopje mine situated in the Chinhoyi greenbelt in south-eastern Zimbabwe after paying a total of Z$4 billion (US$ 16 million) to the owners.
The mine closed in 2006 due to financial constraints, rendering 150 workers at the mine, formerly owned by businessman Macdonald Chapfika, jobless. After the closure, a Zimbabwean parastatal, Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC) announced that it would take over operations of the mine. However with the latest development, media reports indicate that ZMDC will only come in as a technical partner.
The State-owned Herald newspaper reported today that the acquisition of the mine by the central bank should lead to the resuscitation of mining activities there soon. According to the paper, Golden Kopje has a lifespan of over 15 years and that before its closure it was producing between 300kg to 400kg of the yellow metal per month.
"Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) was supposed to finance the transaction, but there is now a shift from the initial arrangement. RBZ through Carslone is now in charge," Herald quotes an unnamed source. "ZMDC may now come in as technical partners."
According to the paper, Golden Kopje becomes the second gold mine to be owned by Carslone after it acquired Midlands gold mine. It said ZMDC Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Dominic Mubayiwa refused to comment on the latest turn of events.
Zimbabwe has registered a decline in its gold production from 13.45 tonnes produced in 2005 to 10.96 tonnes in 2006. According to RBZ, this has been as a result of mass smuggling dogging the gold industry in the country, although others put problems down to the country's dire economic situation leading to power outages and unavailability of spare parts and new equipment.
Herald quotes RBZ Governor Gideon Gono as saying the country was losing between US$40 million to US$50 million per month from smuggling of the country's mineral wealth, mostly gold.
The bank, which is also the sole buyer of gold in the country, says its venture in the mining industry is intended to bring sanity to an industry which has gone haywire.
Meanwhile, British business tycoon Nicholas Van Hoogstraten has disposed off 57 percent of his equity in Falcon Gold, a mining company which has numerous interests in this southern African country. The sale of the shares saw him raking in US$4.5 million.
Van Hoogstraten who was the majority shareholder in the mining firm told the media that he decided to disinvest from the company "because we had been offered a good value for the shares".
......(I guess he knew when to get out while the gettin' was good.)
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 04/04/2007 : 18:21:40
|
Platinum news (or views depending on your point of view)
A Kitco Exclusive
You must be logged in to see this link.
Platinum - Dark Horse, Bright Future
...Platinum provides a number of benefits to investment portfolios. Including all three precious metals means portfolios can achieve full diversification within the precious metal group and experience reduced volatility, thereby improving overall performance. Although there are other precious metals such as palladium, rodium and iridium, only gold, silver and platinum have dual roles as monetary assets as well as industrial commodities.
While many investors think of precious metals as merely commodities, their monetary roles can at times be the driving force for price increases. While gold and silver have been used as money for over 3000 years, platinum is a relative newcomer. The first platinum coins were issued in Russia in 1828. Over the next 18 years, the Russian government minted over 500,000 ounces of platinum and introduced to the notion that platinum was not just a commodity but, like gold, also a store of value. Today most mints offer gold, silver and platinum coins. All three metals have the necessary attributes to function as money.
Platinum’s name comes from the Spanish expression for “little silver”. The Conquistadors first introduced platinum to Europe when they brought it back, along with plundered gold and silver, from the New World. During the nineteenth century platinum became much sought-after for jewellery, and was the metal of choice for many royal houses.
Platinum is the rarest of the precious metals and its price reflects this.
It takes a massive amount of ore -
approximately 10 tonnes –
to produce a single ounce of platinum, and the extraction and refining processes are both costly and time consuming. Excavating ten tonnes of ore takes 6 months of labour-intensive mining, often in dangerous conditions at mines that can be several miles deep.
Total annual world production is about 7 million ounces, a mere 10% of the world’s annual gold production of 76 million ounces, and less than 1% of the world’s annual silver production of 416 million ounces.
All the gold ever mined would fill an area the size of a 3-metre high tennis court,
while all the platinum ever mined would hardly fill 25 cubic feet,
or the size of a crate used to ship automobiles.
While the media is starting to notice that gold and silver have jumped to new 25-year highs, there has been little or no mention of platinum, even though its rise has been even more spectacular.
On November 21, 2006 platinum soared to an intra-day high of $1,350 per ounce, smashing through its previous all-time high of $1,070 reached in 1980.
In contrast, the previous highs attained by gold and silver ($850 and $50 respectively) are still some way off. Also largely ignored is the fact that platinum’s percentage increase of 190% from the beginning of 2000 has surpassed silver’s 150% rise and gold’s 120% rise. Surprisingly, there is little or no mention of platinum prices in the mainstream press.
Even though platinum has surpassed its 1980 high in nominal terms, it still has a long way to go before reaching its inflation-adjusted high of $2,630. Since demand for platinum applications keeps growing while mine supply remains relatively fixed, the price of platinum is likely to exceed that inflation-adjusted high.
The quiet bull market in all three precious metals – gold, silver and platinum – is important to investors. A portfolio cannot be fully diversified if it only contains a mix of stocks, bonds and cash because, since 1969, stock and bond correlations have been increasing.
Precious metals are the most negatively correlated asset class to traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. When they fall, precious metals tend to rise and vice versa, so precious metals act like portfolio insurance.
Today, every portfolio benefits from an allocation of at least 5% to precious metals in order to reduce volatility and risk.
Limited Sources of Supply
Platinum is in a secular bull market strongly supported by supply/demand fundamentals. Supply is limited and hard to excavate. Total world reserves that can be economically mined are estimated at 3.5 billion ounces by the US Geological Survey.
Unlike all other metals and oil, platinum deposits are limited to only two main areas of the world. Due to the distinctive characteristics of platinum deposits, geologists consider it unlikely that significant new resources will be found.
South Africa and Russia are the richest sources, with South Africa accounting for about 78% of total annual world production, and 63% of the world’s reserves. Russia accounts for about 13% of total annual world production. North and South America are less important sources.
Unlike gold, there are no large above-ground supplies of platinum.
Any interruption of mine production, because of political instability or labour turmoil, for instance, would catapult the price into orbit.
The cost of mining in South Africa has climbed recently because of strength in the rand, and the increased cost of oil. Russian production suffered during the transition period before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but new investment in modern plants and equipment could dramatically boost output.
In 2006, total mine supply was 7 million ounces, with South Africa producing 5.4 million ounces and Russia 895,000 ounces. While North America produced 365,000 ounces, it consumed 1,085,000 ounces.
Since 1997 demand has exceeded mine supply by 8,285 million ounces, resulting in above- ground stocks being depleted by 2,590 million ounces during the period. Recycling provided another 5,695 million ounces.
Inelastic Demand
Demand for platinum has increased from about 2.6 billion ounces in 1975 to 7 billion ounces today.
Unlike gold, over 50% of the platinum produced is consumed (destroyed) in industrial applications.
Platinum is indispensable for many industrial uses because of its unique physical and chemical characteristics, which make it suitable for many different applications. Platinum's catalytic properties, inertness, durability, electrical conductivity, and high melting point are useful in a variety of industrial applications, while its rarity, strength, and beauty make it a popular choice for jewellery. Demand for platinum is inextricably linked to economic growth, so future demand from emerging economies will likely challenge current production capacity. Approximately 30% of products manufactured today either contain platinum or use it in production.
Chemical Processing
Platinum is used as a catalytic agent in the processing of nitric acid, fertilizers, synthetic fibers and a variety of other materials. It can be recycled following the catalytic process, making demand somewhat volatile. However, platinum is an essential ingredient for many catalytic processes and there are few satisfactory substitutes.
Electronics
New uses for platinum in electronics are discovered almost daily. Currently, it is used in thermocouple devices that measure temperature with high accuracy;
thin-film optical coating and temperature systems;
wires and electrical contacts for use in corrosive or high-voltage mediums;
magnetic coatings for high density hard disk drives and some of the new optical storage systems.
Glass
Platinum is used extensively in glass production, because its hardness and high melting point make it ideal for difficult high-temperature processes.
It is also widely used in fiberglass production.
The recent introduction of glass fiber communications technology is a new and powerful driver for demand. Although glass production is currently a relatively small component of total demand, it is a high-growth area.
Petroleum
Crude oil refining is a growth area for platinum, alongside economic expansion in Asia. While other technologies that perform crude oil separation do exist, the processes using platinum are the most environmentally friendly. As new refineries are constructed and older one are updated, platinum use in petroleum refining will rise accordingly.
Jewellery
Platinum’s scarcity and beauty make it top choice for expensive jewellery. Its hardness and durability mean it can be used in extremely pure form, resulting in more secure stone settings. It resists oxidation and discolouration. Its brilliant luster makes diamonds in particular more luminous, but also enhances the beauty of all precious stones. Platinum is hypoallergenic, making it the metal of choice for those who suffer reactions to other materials.
Automotive Catalysts
Platinum, along with palladium, is in great demand by the auto industry, which soaks up 33% of annual supply. Since 1999 auto catalyst demand has more than doubled, largely because platinum has a unique ability to control and remove harmful engine emission by-products. The importance of platinum within the auto industry will continue to grow as governments around the world worlds ecologically responsible governments demand greater levels of emission control, and future demand could increase exponentially, along with price.
Fuel Cells
Manufacturers are experimenting with fuel cell power plants for electric cars, creating a new use for platinum that could substantially increase demand. Fuel cells use platinum to catalyze a chemical reaction using hydrogen that creates electrical energy, but generates no harmful emissions.
Investment Case
According to recent data from Platinum Today, the vast majority of investors ignore precious metals entirely, and hold portfolios that are not diversified and are therefore exposed to economic downturns, financial crises and inflation. Of the investors who do have an allocation to precious metals, most concentrate on gold, while a few more include silver. Many believe that an allocation to mining stocks provides the required diversification.
Although mining stocks often track the price of the metals, there are times, such as during the market decline in 1987, when mining stocks decline by a greater margin than the broad equity markets even as the price of gold rises. Consider that, in the 1970s, the price of gold itself outperformed Homestake Mining shares by a factor of two. Few investors have an allocation physical platinum, the best-performing precious metal.
Where platinum is concerned, there are few stocks to choose from. The major producers are South African stocks such as Impala Platinum, and Anglo-American Platinum. North American producers such as Stillwater Mining and North American Palladium are primarily palladium producers with some by-product platinum production.
According to a study by Wainwright Economics, a Boston-based investment research and strategy firm, platinum is the leading indicator of inflation.
While gold and silver lead inflation by 12 months, platinum leads by 16 months.
This was confirmed in the current bull market as the rise in platinum prices started in 1999, while gold and silver’s rise began in 2001.
*************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Global gold output fell to 10-yr low in 2006
By: Mariaan Olivier
Published: 4 Apr 07 - 14:05
Global gold production had fallen to a ten-year low last year, when output registered a “substantial” 3% decline of 79 t, a survey released on Wednesday showed.
Precious metals consultancy firm GFMS, which launched Gold Survey 2007 in Johannesburg, senior supply-side analyst Bruce Alway explained that Asia, North America and Africa were the main contributors to the decline in production.
In Asia, production fell by 46 t, while North America and Africa’s output declined by 26 t and 17 t, respectively.
“In Africa, Mali and Ghana did much, but not quite enough to undo the more than 20 t of lost output reported in South Africa,” the consultancy said.
South Africa’s gold production dropped to an 84-year low in 2006, registering a 7,5% year-on-year decline.
Oceania's production fell by 21 t last year.
Latin America was the only region to return a meaningful rise, having posted a 35 t, or 7%, year-on-year increase.
Alway stressed the role played by new mines in the growth reported in Latin America, even though the continent, and the world’s largest mine, Yanacocha, actually registered a sharp 22% drop in output in 2006.
“New mines, such as Veladero, Amapari, Mulatos and Choco 10, located in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela, generated over 20 t of new gold in 2006,” he said.
GFMS said that it expected a moderate improvement of between 1% and 2% in gold output in 2006.
“New mines, ramp-ups and less of a swing at some of the world’s larger operations that dampened the impact of new production in 2006 should support our forecast production level to above 2 500 t,” he commented.
“In Africa, Mali and Ghana did much, but not quite enough to undo the more than 20 t of lost output reported in South Africa,” the consultancy said.
South Africa’s gold production dropped to an 84-year low in 2006, registering a 7,5% year-on-year decline.
Oceania's production fell by 21 t last year.
Latin America was the only region to return a meaningful rise, having posted a 35 t, or 7%, year-on-year increase.
Alway stressed the role played by new mines in the growth reported in Latin America, even though the continent, and the world’s largest mine, Yanacocha, actually registered a sharp 22% drop in output in 2006.
“New mines, such as Veladero, Amapari, Mulatos and Choco 10, located in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela, generated over 20 t of new gold in 2006,” he said.
GFMS said that it expected a moderate improvement of between 1% and 2% in gold output in 2006.
“New mines, ramp-ups and less of a swing at some of the world’s larger operations that dampened the impact of new production in 2006 should support our forecast production level to above 2 500 t,” he commented.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 04/06/2007 : 17:56:29
|
Silver junior news
You must be logged in to see this link.
Nickel's rally is molybdenum's gain
Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange have climbed more than 200% in the past year and some of their success has been spilling over to molybdenum.
Why? Nickel and molybdenum are metals which enhance the corrosion resistance in stainless steel, so molybdenum can sometimes be used to subsidize nickel content.
The biggest threats to nickel's rally are "replacement metals," said James Finch, a senior editor at StockInterview.com. "For nickel, there has been quiet substitution of molybdenum, which is slowly creeping higher in price.
Not everyone agrees that metal substitution is a real threat to the nickel market. But it's one contributor to the growing need around the world for molybdenum.
So is it too late to invest in nickel-(Yes it is, Canadian Nickle beat you to it)
– and what are the prospects for molybdenum?
First, investors need to consider the biggest driver for the base metals' rally.
"Everyone is underestimating growth in the Chinese market," said Finch.
"We've gotten steady and fairly reliable info that this growth is not slowing down, as many forecast."
And China's and India's growth in commodity consumption is just "part of the story," said Kevin Bambrough, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management Inc.
"We see emerging-market demand growth all over the globe."
Against that backdrop, nickel prices soared to $50,000 per metric ton Thursday – an all-time high on the London Metal Exchange, according to BaseMetals.com. That's more than $22 a pound.
And molybdenum costs around $30 a pound, according to InfoMine.com –
about a 500% jump from the level seen four years ago.
It's at its highest price since Nov. 2005, though prices peaked at over $45 in June 2005.
Supply factor
Explaining the price strength is as simple as taking a look at supply.
Nickel has "tended towards global deficits these past couple of years – a pattern that was widely expected to abate in 2007," said Matthew Parry, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.
But that was "before numerous supply disruptions kept the market undersupplied," he said.
As of March 27, nickel supplies tracked by the LME were down 25% since the turn of the year – a period that has seen 35% price growth, Parry said.
Supplies are down 85% from the corresponding period last year, while prices are up over 200% from that period.
As of Thursday, LME nickel stocks stood at 4,812 metric tons, not too far from the Feb. 6 level of 2,982,
which was the lowest since July 1991,
according to Martin Hayes, an analyst at BaseMetals.com.
"The result of strong nickel demand has led to only enough LME global warehouse stock to provide an equivalent supply of just over a day's worth of global-nickel consumption," said Scott Wright, an analyst at financial-services company Zeal LLC.
The figures for molybdenum aren't so current. But global production was estimated at 416 million pounds in 2005, with demand that year pegged at 400 million, according to a January newsletter from the International Molybdenum Association.
Molybdenum is a by-product of copper and when copper production was curtailed or suffered because of infrastructure problems in the early 2000s, molybdenum availability tightened as well, explained Hayes.
"Even now, nearly all copper producers still see molybdenum as just a by-product and do not make extra efforts to maximize production," he said.
Replacement concept
Regardless, Finch said it's not a "one-for-one switch" from nickel to molybdenum.
"There is a nickel shortage, but not a molybdenum shortage."
"The substitutions are being done in tiny percentages to reduce 'surcharges'," he said.
"When the stainless steel manufacturer sells the final product, he tacks on an 'alloy surcharge'" and the nickel shortage caused the alloy surcharge to run more than 70% of the price of the steel product, Finch explained.
So "by reducing some of the nickel content and adding other metals – such as chromium, manganese and molybdenum, this reduces the nickel surcharge to the final price," he said.
In stainless steels, molybdenum is used along with chromium to raise corrosion resistance, according to the International Molybdenum Association's newsletter. Around 10% of world stainless-steel production contains molybdenum.
Still, although many analysts agree that the steel industry has been using molybdenum as a stand-in for some of the nickel content in certain stainless steels, the degree to which that'll continue to happen is a bit fuzzy.
Molybdenum is a "much smaller market than nickel and less in the way of potential new sources of supply [so] it is hard to imagine molybdenum replacing nickel in any significant way," said Lawrence Roulston, editor of Resource Opportunities.
Also, substituting one metal for another is a long-term process, he said.
"In the end, when the switching begins, it just spreads the shortages around and pushes up the alternative commodity," said Sprott's Bambrough.
Molybdenum deposits are more common than nickel,
but it "has exactly the same problems in terms of short-term supply," said Eric Coffin, co-editor of HardRockAnalyst.com, which offers publications focused on resource stocks.
So "while many metals are at prices that make substitution a potential option,
the fact remains that it's not easy to find substitutes that are not in the same supply-constrained situation," he said.
Experts expect molybdenum "to be in shortage as well and it's not any cheaper than nickel," Coffin said.
"Until a couple of major operations come on stream, in a year or two, molybdenum isn't likely to provide any relief for nickel consumers," he said.
Growing demand
That said, the $12 billion market for molybdenum is changing, according to Ian McDonald, executive chairman at Blue Pearl Mining Ltd., which pegs itself as the world's largest publicly-traded pure molybdenum producer.
There are more and more uses for molybdenum – 25 years ago it wasn't used in cars, said McDonald. Now there are 15 small component parts in a car that use molybdenum, and 50 million cars were made last year, he said. "Steel markets are reclaiming markets lost to aluminium and plastic."
Global demand for molybdenum has been growing at a rate better than 4% per year over the last 50 years, and it climbed 6% last year, said McDonald.
Over in China, demand grew about 20% last year, he said, pointing out that the world market for molybdenum was 230 million pounds back in 1993 and the Chinese, at that time, were producing 110 million pounds and exporting 100 million. Now, China produces 80 million pounds and is a net exporter of 30-40 million.
Molybdenum's use in nuclear plants also offers a potential demand boost.
Every nuclear plant is going to require – depending on the design – between 500,000 and 800,000 pounds of molybdenum, said McDonald. The nuclear reactor itself is around 6% molybdenum.
For now, pipelines are the "single biggest consumer" of molybdenum, he said.
Nickel's gain
As for nickel itself, current pricing is reaching levels that look "unsustainable," said Coffin.
Then again, the largest use for nickel is stainless steel production, said Coffin.
That's a "high-end use and even at current prices, substitution for end uses like ... stainless steel is not easy."
And the fact that nickel is over $20 a pound suggests that there is "huge pent-up demand" for it, said Resource Opportunities' Roulston.
Roulston stressed, however, that there is a difference between speculating on a higher nickel price and profiting from the long-term bull market in metals.
"Quite frankly, I wouldn't bet a dime on nickel going higher," he said. Though, "my subscribers are making huge profits by investing in the companies that are focused on the fundamental factor in the metal markets, which is the critical shortage of supply."
And with nickel supplies headed for a deficit this year and investment funds buying most base metals, "there is further upside price potential," said BaseMetals.com's Hayes.
Opportunity knocks
The one thing analysts didn't seem to be so wishy-washy about is the prospects for molybdenum.
"We see global production continued to struggle to expand, while demand for the metal is clearly burgeoning," said Sprott's Bambrough.
There's a "good possibility that the molybdenum price will take a run at the recent highs of around $40 [and] ... we wouldn't be at all surprised if it were to exceed those highs," he said.
So what's the best way to get in on that action?
The best way to invest in any of the base metals is to invest in those companies that are in the best position to benefit from the supply deficits ... exploration and development companies that have deposits that are advancing toward production, or that might be taken over by larger companies," said Roulston.
Sprott Asset Management has a new molybdenum investment vehicle in the works.
It plans to launch trading of Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. in the second half of April.
The company, which will trade in Canada under the ticker "MLY," will be a public company that invests in "both physical molybdenum and companies that have exposure to molybdenum," according to Maria Smirnova, a research associate at Sprott.
"It's pretty unique; the first of its kind," she said.
And Blue Pearl has agreed to provide technical-advisory services to Sprott Molybdenum Participation Corp. relating to the molybdenum business and/or physical molybdenum, she said.
As for the miners, Zeal LLC's Wright likes Idaho General Mines, which he says owns the largest global molybdenum project in the permitting stage. He owns shares in GMO. He also likes Blue Pearl.
Blue Pearl is "highly confident our Davidson mine will have full production in 2009," with 4.5 million pounds annually, the company's McDonald said.
For his part, Coffin said he follows a number of nickel and molybdenum exporters and developers, though "the list is fairly short and getting shorter in both cases."
Coffin's longer-term pick is Rio Narcea, which produces nickel in Spain. It just agreed to a takeover offer from Lundin Mining.
"We expect a few other companies on the hraadvisory.com list will 'go away' before the year ends," said Coffin.
"That may be the best comfort for investors that do not know the metals markets well; companies that are in the thick of things are willing to keep buying assets at current prices – which tells you a lot about how they expect metal prices to look going forward."
***************************************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Japanese exchange to offer gold-based trading fund
Osaka Securities Exchange, which operates the second-largest Japanese stock market, may list an exchange-traded gold fund as early as this month as it taps rising interest in commodities from investors looking to diversify their portfolios.
The fund, which is linked to gold prices, was being created by one of the largest investment trusts in Japan, and would have net assets under management of ¥3 billion to ¥5 billion, or $25 million to $42 million, said Kotaro Yamazawa, an executive at the exchange.
Rising commodity prices have stirred institutional and retail investor interest in the sector, and has led to an expansion in exchange-traded funds, known as ETFs. Gold prices reached a 26-year high of $730.40 an ounce in May 2006, while futures prices for the metal on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange reached a 21-year peak Feb. 26. The Osaka exchange would be the first in Japan to introduce an ETF for gold.
"Listing gold-linked ETFs in Japan will allow institutional investors more opportunities to meet their hedging needs, and may get more individuals interested in gold investments," said Masaaki Nangaku, the chairman of the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.
The Osaka Securities Exchange finished preparations last month to allow listing of ETFs based on "gold, crude, palm oil, non-ferrous metals, and whatever else," Yamazawa said.
The Osaka Securities Exchange is also considering listing ETFs linked to indexes like the Goldman Sachs Commodity index and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange's TOCOM index, Yamazawa said.
"It's not clear how the ETF will be linked to gold prices, or how trading will occur," said Osamu Ikeda, general manager of precious metals at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo, the largest gold retailer in Japan.
The balance of gold in ETFs around the world is more than 600 metric tons, said Koichiro Kamei, managing director of Market Strategy Institute in Tokyo.
Gold is favored by some investors as a hedge against inflation, and its price can also track movements in crude oil costs. Exchange-traded funds allow investors to own commodities without having to take physical delivery.
The first gold-backed ETF began trading in Australia in March 2003. Similar funds are trading in Britain, South Africa, the United States, Singapore and India.
Itsuo Toshima, regional director for Japan and South Korea at the World Gold Council, said the gold tonnage in ETFs was "equivalent to the demand for physical delivery of gold in China." - Yasumasa Song
****************************************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
Rhodium prices boosted by green power surge
As more countries press for cleaner emissions, the price of platinum group metals keeps increasing.
"This 'green planet' thing is really taking off," Steve Shepherd, a JPMorgan analyst who's forecasting a 24 percent gain in average rhodium prices, said in a March 22 interview. "These platinum group metals are beneficiaries of that big time."
Platinum group metals such as platinum, palladium and rhodium are used in devices to cut tailpipe gas emissions. Global demand for catalytic converters in autos is soaring because governments are tightening laws on vehicle emissions and as vehicle demand surges in China, the world's second-largest auto market.
JPMorgan has boosted its long-term platinum price target 19 % to $1 100.
Rhodium, which has risen fourteenfold in the past four years, traded at $6 175/oz last Friday, according to the Metal Bulletin. So far this year, it has risen 11 % and averaged $5 900.
Merrill Lynch analysts said earlier this month the price of rhodium might rise by a quarter to average $5 638 this year, telling clients to be long on platinum stocks such as Anglo Platinum.
Spot prices of palladium, which can be substituted for platinum in petrol vehicle converters, have gained 8.5 percent this year.
Rhodium may keep outpacing other precious metals because it cannot be substituted in diesel versions of the converters
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 04/12/2007 : 17:22:27
|
For those of you who read the Mogambo guru newsoetter, it will now only be available from DailyReconing.com
You must be logged in to see this link.
Full story here
You must be logged in to see this link.
You will still be able to read about the Mogambo's grumblings but only through daily Reconing. Just thought you would want to know.
**************************************************************************************
You must be logged in to see this link.
South Africa: Feb gold output fell 8,8% y-on-y
South Africa lifted its total mining production for February by 4,4% year-on-year, but gold output fell by 8,8% in the same month, statistics showed on Thursday.
Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) said that February's nongold production increased by 7,2% year-on-year.
Between February and December this year gold production fell by 10,2% year-on-year, while total mining output during the three-month period increased by 5,8% when compared with a year earlier.
Last year, South Africa's gold production dropped to an 84-year low, registering a 7,5% year-on-year decline, while global gold production had fallen to a ten-year low when it declined 3% year-on-year.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 04/14/2007 : 20:44:51
|
Information on Silver Junior
You must be logged in to see this link.
Low cost, lower tech nickel mine projects attracting attention
The continuing high nickel price has prompted companies to look at new solutions for mining and treating low cost lateritic ores without the need for high cost complex metallurgical plants.
Author: Lawrence Williams and John Chadwick
Posted: Friday , 13 Apr 2007
LONDON -
With base metal prices all remaining at high levels, opportunities are opening up for the development of projects previously considered sub-economic -
particularly if lower cost production methods are brought into play.
This is particularly true in the nickel sector where the cost of a metallurgical plant suitable for treating lateritic-type ores can run into a billion US dollars or more which is way beyond virtually all junior miners' financing capabilities.
If means can be found, though, of either producing a concentrate relatively cheaply by other means and selling the product to an existing metallurgical plant which needs the feed,
or where other metal content alongside the nickel may make direct sale and shipping of the unprocessed product viable,
then a whole new opportunity may exist for junior miners.
Such is the case with Regency Mines (AIM: RGM, Frankfurt: RG4) which is confident it can mine low grade nickel limonite ore at its Papua New Guinea Mambare property and direct ship the low grade nickel and cobalt product direct to Chinese blast furnace operations for the latter to make a nickel-rich pig iron as an intermediate product for ultimate stainless steel production.
What may make this economically viable is the relatively high iron content of the resource (up to around 50%) which would effectively be free of cost to the Chinese, with the latter paying for the nickel and cobalt content alone.
Regency's Mambare project covers a huge area of 584 km2 which is only 110km by metalled and gravel road to a port facility at Oro Bay. Regency's Graham Rolfe, who is managing the project in PNG, told Mineweb at a presentation in London, that he is confident that such a project is viable and because of the close to surface, and easy working of the limonite material, a project to mine 1 million tonnes a year, and direct ship it to China, could be fast tracked to production in around six months from project go-ahead.
Further, according to company chairman, Andrew Bell, there are already expressions of interest from Chinese steelmakers for such an operation.
...............The current resource is put at around 200 million tonnes of soft limonitic material at surface grading 1% nickel and 0.1% cobalt, underlain by the harder saprolites with a similar tonnage and grades of 1.25-1.5% nickel.
.......Regency's current plan is to mine the limonites and generate sufficient income to be able to contemplate the high capital costs of an HPAL plant at a later stage.
Meanwhile, in Australia there is growing interest in nickel heap leach opportunities, and Cortona Resources (ASX: CRC) is just one company advancing this technology.
In September 2006, Cortona announced a nickel laterite resource at Black Hill in the North Monger project, 40 km southeast of Kalgoorlie, Western Australia. The inferred resource is estimated to be 30 Mt at 0.64% Ni. The resource was discovered in 1997 and measures more than 3.5 km x 0.4 km, extending to a maximum depth of 40 m. Cortona recently purchased the tenements to the south of the resource, which were never drilled for nickel. The company says "interpretation of geophysical datasets suggests the resource has the potential to continue into this area."
The resource is located close to suitable infrastructure, being within 30 km of the Kalgoorlie to Kambalda gas pipeline, 1 km from the Trans Australian Railway, and 4 km from the Mount Monger road that leads to the major mining town of Kalgoorlie. There are also potential sulphur sources nearby for the manufacture of sulphuric acid.
Since announcing the resource, Cortona has been monitoring developments in nickel laterite heap leach technology, which for some ores is being recognised as a viable metallurgical alternative to the more widely used, but capital intensive, HPAL technique.
The heap leach process is attractive because it not only has the potential for significantly lower capital expenditure than HPAL, but it is also a less complex process.
At this stage there are no producing nickel heap leach operations in Australia. Several projects are under review, including Heron Resources' Jump Up Dam prospect 150km northeast of Kalgoorlie, where encouraging test results have recently led to a resource drill out. Heron is now conducting a feasibility study of the resource. Elsewhere, European Nickel has commenced construction of a nickel heap leach plant at its Caldag Project in Turkey, with production due to commence in 2008.
In light of the positive outlook for the heap leaching of nickel, Cortona has engaged the services of Independent Metallurgical Laboratories to conduct test work on the heap leach potential of the Black Hill laterite resource. The work has commenced and will proceed in two stages.
The initial stage will firstly characterise the ore before assessing the acid digestion potential via a series of bottle roll leach tests.
If it can be demonstrated that the material is conducive to acid leaching, the test work will then proceed to a more detailed second stage. This will investigate the combined physical and chemical aspects of nickel and cobalt recovery using a column test. Stage 1 is due to be completed by early June 2007, and stage 2, if implemented, should conclude by late October 2007.
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
|
|
|
pencilvanian
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
2209 Posts |
Posted - 04/17/2007 : 18:44:02
|
There is buyer's regret and then there is seller's regret, the self-inflicted wound of selling too soon....
You must be logged in to see this link.
Fears over Treasury losing control of gold left in its vaults
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:32am BST 17/04/2007
As Gordon Brown prepares for a grilling in the Commons over his fire-sale auction of Britain's gold at the bottom of the market, concern is mounting that the Treasury may have lost control over the small amount still left in its vaults.
Peter Hambro, head of Britain's largest pure gold mining company, said he believed the Bank of England may have leased out its bullion to earn extra yield.
"The real risk is that the Treasury has lent out the remainder of the gold. It is very important to know whether the bank's gold lending is on a secured basis," he said. The concern is that counter-parties could default in a crisis such as the LTCM-Ashanti affair in 1998.
"The whole point of gold is that it's not somebody else's paper currency. It's the stuff that keeps you alive when everything else goes wrong," he said.
Central banks around the world have routinely lent out gold over the years to bullion banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. The IMF last year questioned if they had lent out more gold than publicly revealed, a situation that would leave the market a large overhang of "short" positions. The Treasury said last night that it would look into any possible gold loans.
With gold now trading at $690 an ounce, Mr Brown's decision to break ranks with the US, Japan, France, and Germany by selling off 395 tonnes of gold has cost taxpayers more than £2bn.
In a move that astonished dealers, Mr Brown insisted on selling the gold in open auctions. The first sale drove the price down to $254, the low-point of an 18-year slide. There were 17 auctions between July 1999 and March 2002 yielding an average of $274.9 an ounce.
Ross Norman, director of TheBullionDesk.com, said the reason for the sales was to support the fledgling euro. The proceeds were switched into 40pc euros, 40pc dollars, and 20pc yen. "His motives were political, but it was carried out in an incredibly foolish way, just as the market was turning up."
.......Keanes (an Englishman) and his ilk said the economies of the world would have been better off if they all dumped their gold into the sea,
though many feel they would do much better if they dumped all of their Keanesians into the sea.
*************************************************************
I should have chosen "Cut-n-Paste" as a forum name, since that is what I do, mostly. |
Edited by - pencilvanian on 04/17/2007 18:47:59 |
|
|
|
Topic |
|
|
|
Bullion News And Views
Forum Locked
Topic Locked
