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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
186 Posts |
 Posted - 05/10/2008 : 23:10:52
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I have started detailed counts on Canadian nickels to try to figure out the effects of new minting of steel nickels plus the effects of hoarding/alloy recovery program.
I am using as a base the results of my survey late last year. At that time, based on about 500 rolls, I found the percentage of .999 Ni to be 21.2%, the percentage of cupronickel to be 52.9%, and the observed percentage of 2007 steelies to be 4.96%
I have noticed a lot of 2007s this year, so it may be that the Mint added another slug of 2007s since November (where my last numbers were measured)
My hypothesis is that some .999 Ni have been removed from circulation (x1). Some CuNi have been removed from circulation (x2). Some more 2007s have been added to circulation (x3). And some 2008s have been added to circulation (x4). x1, x2, x3, and x4 are found from observations of the numbers of .999 Ni (A), CuNi (B), numbers of 2007s (C) and the observed number of 2008s (D) using a system of four equations.
My current observations which are based on a very small sample (80 rolls from six different banks) are
.999 Ni (15.56%)
Cu Ni (42.28%)
2007s (13.72%)
2008s (3.53%)
If these numbers hold (and I suspect the .999 Ni will rise as I ended up with a bunch of pre-sorted rolls from one normally reliable bank), the numbers suggest
--the Mint has added 2008s equivalent to 3% of previous circulation so far (probably more will be added as the year progresses)
the Mint added another slug of 2007s at the end of last year equivalent to 6.5% of all nickels in circulation, more than doubling the number of 2007s in circulation as of last November. This may be to make up for . . .
. . . nearly 1/3 of circulating CuNi nickels have been removed from circulation. Folks, this is more than hoarders would take out, as most hoarders are not big on cupronickel.
. . . over 1/3 of circulating .999 Ni have been removed from circulation (again, this number will probably moderate somewhat). Again, this is much more than hoarders would have taken out. I think the Mint has become active in removing nickels from circulation.
THese numbers will improve as more rolls are counted.
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Not all who wander are lost. |
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
186 Posts |
Posted - 05/13/2008 : 21:28:42
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Okay, so nothing a few boxes of nickels from the Bank that Time Forgot can't solve. I have started sorting the first box and the numbers are improved somewhat.
From a total of 140 rolls from 9 banks,
observed
.999 Ni (16.21%)
CuNi (45.05%)
2007 (11.3%)
2008 (2.74%)
Solving the equations as described above suggests
35.2% of the pre-existing .999 Ni have been removed from the general population since November.
27.8% of pre-existing CuNi have been removed since November.
The number of 2007s in circulation has increased by 93% since November.
The number of 2008s added was 2.3% of the total population as of November.
To put these numbers into perspective, imagine that the total number of circulating nickels last November was 1000. Of those, 212 were .999 Ni, 529 were CuNi, and the rest were steel. 50 of those were 2007s.
Since November, 75 .999 Ni have been removed, 147 CuNi have been removed, 46 2007s have been added, and 23 2008s have entered circulation. The total number of nickels in circulation is now 847, of which 137 are .999 Ni, 382 are CuNi, and the remaining 326 are steel, of which 96 are dated 2007 and 23 are 2008. I don't know how many more 2008s they plan to make this year, but I would expect them to try to push the circulation up to 1000 again. Of course, they will continue to remove the Ni and CuNi coins through the remainder of the year. |
Not all who wander are lost. |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
2212 Posts |
Posted - 05/14/2008 : 08:32:29
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| Wow! You presented an excellent report on the Canadian nickel stituation. This is something I hope all here take the time to read. It shows how there are those who have the power to quickly alter the makeup of coins in circulation on a massive scale. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for entertainment purpose only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com to provide investment, medical, legal or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. |
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
186 Posts |
Posted - 05/16/2008 : 20:12:06
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I have done some more counting, but am falling way behind my acquisition program. Up to 214 rolls from 14 different banks in Toronto and Mississauga. The numbers have improved but only because I have been focussing on the good banks, which kind of makes further analysis unreliable. I am still seeing that 25-30% of pure nickels and a similar percentage of CuNi have been removed, which still suggests a 4-6 month window before the good nickels are all but gone.
Driving through some of the good neighbourhoods in Toronto (follow O'Connor through Donlands, Greenwood, Coxwell, and down to the Danforth). There is an entire ocean of good coin in those houses, and my sampling is like dipping a few thimbles into it and trying to figure out where they are going. |
Not all who wander are lost. |
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
186 Posts |
Posted - 05/21/2008 : 22:16:57
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After 351 rolls, the numbers suggest
29.5 % of .999 Ni have been removed since November 2007
30.8% of CuNi have been removed.
The number of 2007s have doubled.
The number of 2008s released are about 2.8% of the pre-existing population.
I find these numbers fairly satisfying--intuitively I would expect the relative amounts of pure Ni and CuNi removed to be the same as the main actors are the coin sorters (acting for the Mint). These numbers are weighted by number of rolls counted.
If I weight the counts by banks (i.e. weight all the banks sampled the same to remove the effect of buying boxes of rolls from banks where the numbers are good), then
Ni removed - 31.2%
CuNi removed - 34.0%
2007s added - 96.6%
2008s added - 2.8% (relative to entire population)
Some banks had very few rolls, so their samples may not be representative. |
Not all who wander are lost. |
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Steiner
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
170 Posts |
Posted - 05/24/2008 : 22:51:01
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I am following along and enjoying your reports.
Keep up the good work.
Steiner |
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
186 Posts |
Posted - 05/28/2008 : 20:53:43
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Up to 525 rolls sorted in this sample. The numbers still suggest about 1/3 Ni and CuNi removed, so I will soon go back to only reporting on pure nickel recovered (but I am still keeping CuNi as well). It will be faster because the main time drag is sorting out the 2007s and 2008s and counting them.
It is also getting difficult to decide what to do with all the Mint rolls. Just in the last few days, every bank I have gone to has had at best a few CWR and the rest are fresh 2008s from the Mint. Some of the tellers have been really confused saying they always have plenty of CWR, but today they all seem to be gone and several new boxes of brand new nickels have arrived. I suspect this is just part of a monthly (?) cycle of delivery, but the pickup of old coin rolls and boxes could be telling. I may have to wait a while for them to "recharge".
The other issue is the recent appearance of free coin-counting machines in some branches of TD bank. One of these, at the Coxwell/Danforth area, is a bank that routinely gives out rolls counting 22% pure Ni, the highest in the general area. Now customers are putting the nickels into the machine (although somebody I know just put over 5,000 steel nickels in the machine in the past week). This is alarming not only for the recovery of additional coin but it is likely a signal that my first (optimistic) prediction that the alloy-recovery program (ARP) would stop when the percentage of real coins fell to about 15% was overly optimistic. With enough of these coin-counters in place, the ARP will never end.
As others have pointed out, the only thing left to do is to acquire as many as possible as soon as possible. Get to know your neighbours, offer to buy their old coins.
I'm taking the night off. I'm sick of sorting right now. |
Not all who wander are lost. |
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member
Canada
186 Posts |
Posted - 06/12/2008 : 22:29:53
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This latest project is almost complete--I only have about a box and a half to go through.
696 rolls from 29 different branches (not counting rolls that came directly from the Mint).
If I ignore the Mint rolls, then the averages are:
Ni: 18.4%
CuNi: 43.1%
2007: 11.6%
2008: 2.8%
With the Mint rolls (after all, they are part of the overall population)
Ni: 15.9%
CuNi: 37.2%
2007: 17.5%
2008: 8.0%
Those last two numbers are huge. And 2008 is not even half over yet.
The Mint is cranking out new nickels in a big way to make for the ones they are removing from circulation.
I calculate that approximately 30% of circulating Ni and CuNi have been removed from circulation since November.
Another conclusion I can draw is that my original hypothesis that the distribution of nickels is controlled by demographics is incomplete. In mapping the results it seems that both demographics of the local residents and the character of local commercial development determine how many pure-Ni nickels we find. Some neighbourhoods with excellent demographics are swamped by new nickels, and these are mainly areas where "big box" commerce has been added. The target demographics remains older neighbourhoods where people have been living in the same houses for decades, however you should also add those areas where the commerce is carried out in small store fronts (usually with apartments on top). The reason for this may be that for results from a bank to be good over a period of time (samples collected at different times) the average circulating nickels have to be pretty good. Small storefronts in older neighbourhoods are the best means of coaxing a small stream of nickels from all those jars in those old houses. Added to that you get the bonus of the occasional lucky strike when someone dumps an old population of nickels at the local bank. Big box stores encourage people to use credit cards or debit, and the coins stay in the jar. Who wants to lug a bunch of coins across a parking lot the size of a football field. You may get lucky and pick up an old collection someone drops off, but the only way for you to get them is to either be camping out at the bank or to have friendly tellers. The rest of the time the nickels will mainly be new.
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Not all who wander are lost. |
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Nickelmeister
New Member
Canada
20 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 23:29:31
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This is my first post ever. I have just been introduced to this "hobby" and have sorted 4 boxes (8,000) Canadian nickels so far. The percentages were as follows:
45.94% steel
29.38% CuNi
22.75% .999 Ni
0.13% "kings"
1.81% US |
Edited by - Nickelmeister on 06/24/2008 23:30:16 |
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legacypac
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
877 Posts |
Posted - 07/16/2008 : 20:02:18
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quote:
Originally posted by Nickelmeister
This is my first post ever. I have just been introduced to this "hobby" and have sorted 4 boxes (8,000) Canadian nickels so far. The percentages were as follows:
45.94% steel
29.38% CuNi
22.75% .999 Ni
0.13% "kings"
1.81% US
You're in Manatoba right? Seems to be less infultration of US coin there (distance to border, fewer tourists etc?). Your Ni #'s are very strong still. Maybe you can sort enough to drop those Ni numbers LOL.
Also check out my thread on CuNi coins after 2000. The info out on the net (RCM site, wikipedia, and my coin book) is all wrong. There is a lot of CuNi after the steel nickels were introduced in 2000. If there is no "P for plated" or logo mint mark you are holding a CuNi coin. |
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mikereidis
New Member
Canada
6 Posts |
Posted - 07/17/2008 : 23:29:23
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I'm getting pretty low Ni numbers in West end of Ottawa: Nepean and Kanata, 3 RBCs and 1 TD.
I've done 53 rolls by hand, 10 rolls each pickup, but one was 13. Best batch of 10 rolls was 15% Ni
Here are my numbers. 1 10 roll batch had 43% US CuNi so that skews the US #:
Ni King - (1) 0.05% (1950)
Ni 1967 - (3) 0.15%
Ni - 11.74%
CuNi - 31.05%
US CuNi - 10.19% (2.56% without the batch)
Steel - 45.89%
Other - (1 Peso) 0.05%
Missing - (short rolls) 19 - 0.89%
I'm keeping the CuNi for now at least. So that's about a 50% keep, 50% dump ratio. I also bought a box of $100 and realized later they are all un-circulated 2008s. Steel of course.
I live in Quebec in the start of the rural areas, so perhaps I should check my local banks. Not many on the rural side though and the gas money isn't worth driving there. |
Ni saved is Ni earned. |
Edited by - mikereidis on 07/18/2008 00:45:40 |
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legacypac
Penny Hoarding Member
Canada
877 Posts |
Posted - 07/18/2008 : 11:21:59
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Welcome Mike. You might as well keep the CuNi since the mint is pulling it out agressively. Your getting a lot of short rolls - I suggest making up a roll of 40 coins (maybe steel coins) as a sample for your pocket. Just compare the length of the rolls you buy with the sample roll before you leave the teller.
Your ratios are in line with mine generally when you remove the batch of US you found (untypical to get that many together though I have found complete US rolls). Good luck :) If you build up a quantity large enough to justify shipping be sure to offer it here on the board in our buy sell trade section. Save ebay fees that way. |
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Canadian nickel numbers
