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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
2627 Posts |
 Posted - 04/19/2008 : 17:26:04
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A stretch of your imagination into the future, but what's next after the copper pennies are gone? What do you see yourself doing with the money you are now putting into copper pennies? Nickels? Survival preps? Precious metals? Other?
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Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
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CoinHunter53562
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
627 Posts |
Posted - 04/19/2008 : 23:38:34
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| I am doing a little of each: copper cents, pm's, survival preps in the form of stocking up on foods with long shelf lives. If there were no more copper cents to pull from boxes, I guess my focus would move towards more silver and gold, and probably survival prep stuff in addition to food (such as hygeine stuff, generator, etc). |
Load up now while you can!
HoardCode0.1:M38/1USWI:US1Cu990:US5CuNi85 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
2627 Posts |
Posted - 04/20/2008 : 04:44:34
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| That is about where I see myself too CoinHunter. Though I believe there will always be new opportunities to come along, few will present themselves like the 90% silver coins and copper pennies coinage. |
Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for entertainment purpose only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com to provide investment, medical, legal or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved. |
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TenBears
Penny Hoarding Member
873 Posts |
Posted - 04/20/2008 : 08:12:15
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| I would imagine I continue to sort nickels and halves for the odd silver coin. Unless, of course, I get skunked so many times that I just get too discouraged to continue. I will say the last three boxes of nickels I have sorted have each yielded a silver war nickel. Certainly not going to get wealthy by sorting nickels, but the silver is fun to find. However, I think copper pennies are going to last quite a while, at least at some decent percentages. I can't remember where it is in this forum, but someone posted a calculation of just how many copper pennies are estimated to be in circulation. At least to me, the number was overwhelmingly high. |
"Rich," the Old Man said dreamily, "is not baying after what you can't have. Rich is having the time to do what you want to do. Rich is a little whiskey to drink and some food to eat and a roof over your head and a fish pole and a boat and a gun and a dollar for a box of shells. Rich is not owing any money to anybody, and not spending what you haven't got." Robert Ruark
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...
there are too wild Indians...-----still taunted
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1349 Posts |
 Posted - 04/21/2008 : 08:44:43
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At some point in the current blood-letting realestate is probably going to be a major buy. If you can time it right, switching from metal hoarder to slum lord could be a real winning play.
Also consider the future posibility of buying up a vacant house, demolishing it (reducing property taxes), using the wood to make cheap energy for your own, and hoarding the land. As a bonus if the land is close enough to your own house, you could put a garden in it until the time was right to sell the land...
http://www.woodburnersassoc.com/
IMHO |
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swusc
Penny Collector Member
490 Posts |
Posted - 04/21/2008 : 09:32:08
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I think it is around 140 billion not counting wheats/indians as they are already pretty much gone now.
A removal of the mint ban and a big enough operation and they will leave pretty fast. Just think if Jackson metal setup of say 20 plants around the U.S. They could make a major dent in % pretty fast.
If you had 20 locations with 30 machines sorting 18,000 coins an hour each running two 8 hour shifts for 250 days a year with a 20% yeild.
20x30x18000x16x250x.2= 8.6 billion a year (that is going through 43 billion pennies a year)Then again getting that many pennies might be a problem. Though I would think Brinks,CWI and etc might be willing to let them run all the pennies for % ownership of the profits.
I figure operation cost for that many plants would be
Rent $350k a year
PP&E $600K-$1000k
Salary and benefits $3,000k
power water $150k
Misc $200k
So for $1m upfront and annual cost of $3.70m. You could get $86m in copper pennies.
Assume you could get 2.2 cents by selling them for the copper.
$189.2 M in revenue
$86 M in COGS
103.2 M in Gross Margin
I bet you could get a few investors to front the capital. Actually after getting started, I bet the above could be considered an understatement of size.
5-10 years with coin dealers trying to buying them from regular joes too and they will be gone from any decent % stand point. Don't forget coin star might get in on the action too.
The margins are high enough that some venture capital firm will try to do it for sure.
-SWUSC
Maybe I should setup one up.  |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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fiatboy
Administrator
912 Posts |
Posted - 04/21/2008 : 15:37:35
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quote:
At some point in the current blood-letting realestate is probably going to be a major buy. If you can time it right, switching from metal hoarder to slum lord could be a real winning play.
It was either Mayer Nathaniel Rothschild or Nathan Mayer Rothschild (his son) who, when asked when is the best time to buy real estate, said, "Buy when there's blood in the streets...." Famous advice known the world over. But posterity hasn't well remembered the second part of his reply: "...even if the blood is your own." |
"Bart, it's not about how many stocks you have, it's about how much copper wire you can get out of the building." --- Homer Simpson |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1349 Posts |
Posted - 04/21/2008 : 16:49:14
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quote:
Originally posted by fiatboy
[quote]It was either Mayer Nathaniel Rothschild or Nathan Mayer Rothschild (his son) who, when asked when is the best time to buy real estate, said, "Buy when there's blood in the streets...." Famous advice known the world over. But posterity hasn't well remembered the second part of his reply: "...even if the blood is your own."
Nice...I have heard that quote many times applied to many investments, but I never knew the second part or knew that it was originally said about real estate. For sure if you try to buy market bottoms (like the future one in real estate), be prepared to add some of you own blood to the streets.
I am always trying to get in when there is blood in the streets and if I am doing things right I will bail out of commodities too early before the top and load up on something else (real estate?) too early before the bottom.
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1335 Posts |
Posted - 04/21/2008 : 19:41:13
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quote:
Originally posted by swusc
I think it is around 140 billion not counting wheats/indians as they are already pretty much gone now.
A removal of the mint ban and a big enough operation and they will leave pretty fast. Just think if Jackson metal setup of say 20 plants around the U.S. They could make a major dent in % pretty fast.
If you had 20 locations with 30 machines sorting 18,000 coins an hour each running two 8 hour shifts for 250 days a year with a 20% yeild.
20x30x18000x16x250x.2= 8.6 billion a year (that is going through 43 billion pennies a year)Then again getting that many pennies might be a problem. Though I would think Brinks,CWI and etc might be willing to let them run all the pennies for % ownership of the profits.
I figure operation cost for that many plants would be
Rent $350k a year
PP&E $600K-$1000k
Salary and benefits $3,000k
power water $150k
Misc $200k
So for $1m upfront and annual cost of $3.70m. You could get $86m in copper pennies.
Assume you could get 2.2 cents by selling them for the copper.
$189.2 M in revenue
$86 M in COGS
103.2 M in Gross Margin
I bet you could get a few investors to front the capital. Actually after getting started, I bet the above could be considered an understatement of size.
5-10 years with coin dealers trying to buying them from regular joes too and they will be gone from any decent % stand point. Don't forget coin star might get in on the action too.
The margins are high enough that some venture capital firm will try to do it for sure.
-SWUSC
Maybe I should setup one up.
You are assuming they are using ryedales. With that kind of money they could buy/custom build machines like the goldismoney guy is selling.
What if the government decided to make it illegal to own pennies and they made you turn them in and they started sorting them, melting them, and giving the copper to china in payment for the loan????
I think if when a penny hits 3cents apiece more people will be doing this, if not everyone! If the penny is eliminated, and a penny is worth 5cents apiece, I can see people running to banks to buy all the pennies just to spend them as nickels
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I have a hard time resisting the temptation to take a wheat penny out of the take a penny cup when I see one! |
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Art Tatum
Penny Collector Member
USA
395 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 01:47:30
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The ryedales..........
are out there! |
my machine is running! |
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Nickelless
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1343 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 06:31:08
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quote:
What if the government decided to make it illegal to own pennies and they made you turn them in and they started sorting them, melting them, and giving the copper to china in payment for the loan????
How would they enforce this? It's one thing to not accept pennies as coins anymore, but then people would resort to selling them for melt value. But the government doesn't have the resources to go hunting down penny hoarders, with so many other pressing issues to deal with. There was another thread talking about the prospect of the government calling in all gold, and very improbably silver as well. Silver would be really a stretch. So I think it would be way beyond ridiculous for the bean counters to even THINK about cracking down on penny hoarding. What are we going to do, throw 10-year-olds in the slammer for saving up their allowances?
And besides that, how many pounds of pennies does the average person have? It would never happen. Each person would have to have at least a couple hundred pounds of pennies stashed away to make this a practical witch hunt for the government. Granted, we've all seen the feds do some pretty stupid things, but I can't see this being one of them. |
Why hyperinflation is inevitable...and very soon:
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
http://www.ChrisMartenson.com |
Edited by - Nickelless on 04/24/2008 06:34:10 |
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Ardent Listener
Administrator
USA
2627 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 07:26:18
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All the copper pennies even at melt value wouldn't make a dent in the national debt. I don't think that the goverment would make it illegal to own pennies ...(yet)... but they could take away the penny's (both copper and zinc) legal tender status so most people would turn them in for Federal Reserve Notes.
I do agree that even 20 big time industrial sorters could make short work of the copper penny supply. Viewing the sorting percentages here I feel that it has already started to happen on some level.
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Realcent.forumco.com disclosure. Please read.
All posts either by the members, moderators, and the administration of http://realcent.forumco.com are for entertainment purpose only. It is not the intent of realcent.forumco.com to provide investment, medical, legal or tax advice and nothing posted here should be considered to be so. All rights reserved. |
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
3603 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 11:02:55
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Maybe they would just do selective enforcement.. only go after guys with a ton or more.. to make an example of them.  |
If your percentages are low.. just sort more. If your percentages are high.. just sort more.
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knibloe
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
537 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 20:08:25
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If we do our job right, the % will be low enough when the ban is lifted that it will not be worth it for a commercial enterprise to do it.
At what % do you believe that it would not be worth it to sort commercially?
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HoardCopperByTheTon
Administrator
USA
3603 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 20:22:37
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| I try to do it right.. but I don't think I am making much of a dent. I think the percentage would have to get extremely low to make it commercially unviable. |
If your percentages are low.. just sort more. If your percentages are high.. just sort more.
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moboman
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1335 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 20:24:25
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| Nickelless, I agree with everything you have to say. But I was just looking at one extreme. Our government could run up so much debt that the only way to save it is to make it illegal to own silver, gold, copper pennies, and then use that money just to try to pay the interest to china, once they stop accepting bonds from the US. |
I have a hard time resisting the temptation to take a wheat penny out of the take a penny cup when I see one! |
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Ponce
Penny Pincher Member
Cuba
174 Posts |
Posted - 04/24/2008 : 21:11:27
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| In the future, like in Germany in 1923, coins will retain its proper value because no one will be making them......... where the paper money with be only paper and nothing else. |
"If you don't hold it, you don't own it"...Ponce |
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Saul Mine
Penny Collector Member
USA
335 Posts |
Posted - 04/25/2008 : 20:51:30
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| PMs follow a cycle. Silver has a big rise every two years, in winter of an even numbered year. We just went through that, with the usual drop in spring. Gold is not that volatile, but it still takes its time building up. I am doing pennies now as a hobby just to occupy myself until it's time to get into the PM markets again, which will be fall 2009. I am not selling the pennies yet, just hoarding and waiting. |
A penny sorted is a penny earned!
Please use tinyurl.com to post links. Long links make posts hard to read. |
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swusc
Penny Collector Member
490 Posts |
Posted - 04/25/2008 : 22:14:24
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quote:
Originally posted by moboman
Our government could run up so much debt that the only way to save it is to make it illegal to own silver, gold, copper pennies, and then use that money just to try to pay the interest to china, once they stop accepting bonds from the US.
I keep hearing this not accepting bonds from the US.
What choice do they have? They can't make the U.S.A give them assets. They can use the money to buy assets, but they can't force anything.
They only have a claim to interest and their principal, which will be paid in Federal Reserve Notes (which is just another form of government debt).
They can stop selling to us, but how does that help them?
There are tons of countries that would step into to fill that hole in production with only affect on the U.S. being inflation due to higher cost.
The big picture is that the U.S. economy is to big for them to just dump us. In the future that might be different, but right now they can't just stop selling to us.
The U.S. government can't pay back all the debt. If they did, then there would be no federal reserve notes. The gold/silver standard wasn't a very good system either. People forget all the problems that it helped cause aka the Great Depression, the late 1830s/early 1840s depression, and the last half of the 1800s was a nice bust too. There can't be a lender of last resort when the money supply is so fixed. That is the one advantage of the current system is liquidity doesn't kill the economy. It might create inflation and problems, but it doesn't kill.
You basically have to pick between consistent inflation (rate of it might jump around) or boom/bust. The bust we have had in the tech stocks and real estate are nothing compared to old bust in history. People took or are taking losses, but innocent people aren't getting wiped out right now. You can plan for inflation, but it is hard to plan for getting wiped out.
Most people here are more prepared than most, but picture this:
You lose your job, there is 20% unemployment. Most of those unemployed are going to be homeless in 3-6 months. Worldwide demand is so low due to the depression that U.S. can't hire people due to minimum wage laws keeping wages above the rest of the world. This is due to prices dropping to fast for them to be able to be profitable produced. This makes the unemployement rate go up even higher. It basically becomes a cycle. Basically, you will have another major war to pull us out of it because only a war effort could increase demand for goods. The poor will demand food/job, and someone will be blamed. Out of that whole mess some mad man will come to power... they always do.
-SWUSC
Few people are prepared for this. The Great Depression lasted for a 10ish years depending on your skill set and net worth.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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swusc
Penny Collector Member
490 Posts |
Posted - 04/25/2008 : 22:24:27
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During the 1930s there was around 1-2% a year deflation on average. That doesn't sound to bad right? The largest stock bubble in history (at that time) crashed, and it only did that to money supply? No big deal.
Well, that isn't totally correct. FDR and Congress changed the dollar from 20.67 to 34 dollars. That should have caused 64% inflation. It didn't. The deflationary bust just consumed that 64% created inflation and keep on deflating the economy. The U.S. Government just keep spending money trying to create inflation... think all those newly created social programs by the new deal. (look at the growth of government debt in the 1930s vs the GDP)
Well with all that and World War II... we got out of it. We about run out of gold in the process when the world tried to convert all those dollars to gold.
The gold standard has advantages, but it has some major flaws too.
-SWUSC |
`Everybody is ignorant. Only on different subjects.' Will Rogers
"This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the "hidden" confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard." Alan Greenspan, 1966. |
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Saul Mine
Penny Collector Member
USA
335 Posts |
Posted - 04/25/2008 : 22:51:16
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| swusc, you must work for the government. |
A penny sorted is a penny earned!
Please use tinyurl.com to post links. Long links make posts hard to read. |
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