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Kurr
Penny Hoarding Member
576 Posts |
 Posted - 08/06/2008 : 10:59:40
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Recently silver has dropped, and kinda hung. 16.40 right now, and I am just wondering if this was the summer slow down I heard about. Will the closing of Beijing industry for the Olympics have a large enough effect to cause an increased "summer slump"?
I bring this up because I have heard of the drop in price for this time of year, and predictions of it picking up in the fall winter months. This was followed by some of advise which consisted of "sell in May and walk away". There is usually a drop around late February - early May I heard and tho I do not plan to do much selling, I would like to have a rough idea of what to expect the price to bottom out at.
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Always willing to trade copper for pm's
A number of people are educated beyond, sometimes way beyond, their intelligence. - Tenbears
My Ebay items: http://tinyurl.com/5pqkho |
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horgad
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1349 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2008 : 11:47:09
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If anybody could answer that question with any degree of certainty they would be incredibly rich and probably too busy spending their money to post on this board. All most of us can hope to do is sit around and make educated guesses and hope that they we are right 51% of the time so we can slowly make a little money.
Anyhow gold and silver both have been testing their lower boundaries in the last few days. If I had to guess, I would say that they have hit bottom and that the summer pain ends in a few week. If I am wrong, I hate to see what comes next.
Heck, it is hard to imagine that the commodity boom and PM boom is over at this juncture, but WTFDIK. Maybe the dollar is about to resume its reign as king and we are about to enter a deflationary spiral to rival the great depression. Although most would say that this is impossible under a fiat currency, there are a few who still think that is possible. 
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Edited by - horgad on 08/06/2008 11:49:12 |
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fb101
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
894 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2008 : 11:49:56
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For whatever it's worth, the chart I see shows the 200 day moving average at about 16.35, so we would hope it would hold there. Tracing back into a 2 year chart, We could dip below the 200 day average, maybe as low as $15.50 or so. I don't see it going much below that.
What's really happening is kind of amusing;
Look guys, oil has dropped to $118 a barrel! Inflation and all our other financial woes are over! Dump your gold and silver and jump into stocks, quick!
You know, it's the herd mentality. The sheep are doing just like they're told.
Come about September or October, when the (ahem)stimulus package has played out, it ought to be interesting.... if you're short the market!
Here's an edit
dollar chart
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12&w=1&t=l&a=200
Interestingly enough I looked at a dollar chart, and I find the 52 week high for the dollar happened to be 08.16.2007. The one year anniversary of that is in just 10 days.
The flip side is, the dollar has just pushed above it's 200 day moving average for the first time in a year. Still too soon to call a trend change. Some bad news in the next 10 to 15 days could send the dollar heading back down to the 69-70 level.
About that deflationary spiral - ? Possible scenario if someone were to raise taxes sufficiently. There would cause more defaults and there could possibly be another 15-20% drop in home prices, cutting a few trillion more dollars out of our net worth, nailing a few more banks etc.... Yeah, businesses would raise prices, but wouldn't sell anything. They will take losses and unemploy more people, which will cause more defaults.... <I think I'm seeing a pattern here>
And the gov't will bail them out and buy mortgages from them to keep them in business until they own most of the mortgages. Then instead of just limiting themselves to wealth redistribution, they can start redistributing property too. Then autos. Eventually they'll bail us out over and over until they own everything.
And I heard someone say politicians were dumb. Heck, this is playing right into their hands. And you can tell them you heard it from this "comrade" first.
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A materialistic society cannot afford credit, it will inevitably implode.
Life and success are a "do it yourself" thing |
Edited by - fb101 on 08/06/2008 13:11:15 |
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jpf231
Penny Collector Member
USA
340 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2008 : 19:46:54
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| Great post fb101 - As for home ownership - it's merely an illusion in ths U.S.. Stop paying property taxes and see what happens. That land has been in your family for 200 years? Doesn't matter. |
Edited by - jpf231 on 08/06/2008 19:47:34 |
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JerrySpringer
Penny Collector Member
385 Posts |
Posted - 08/06/2008 : 20:43:57
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| With the silver prices pullback, I'd love to see junk silver prices correct. I know, I know, it does not work like that. I will just keep my bids below spot and see what happens. There is no shortage of folks on Ebay selling war nickels in quantity. Maybe they do not perceive silver possibly going much higher? |
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Nickelless
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1340 Posts |
Posted - 08/07/2008 : 00:50:02
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| Kurr, I don't think there's any compelling reason to sell PM at all unless that's the only real asset you have and you're on the verge of economic disaster. Don't look at the price drop and regret that you haven't sold--look at the price drop and buy as much as you can. |
Why hyperinflation is inevitable...and very soon:
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
http://www.ChrisMartenson.com |
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Silver Price
