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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
 Posted - 10/26/2009 : 09:10:10
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Nominal Dow levels to sell off from here. Dow Theory, which is the basis for technical analysis, suggests that equities are in a primary down trend and now the secondary trend, which was a bear rally, is turning south.
USD to strengthen as a consequence.
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The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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malibu
New Member
Canada
7 Posts |
Posted - 10/27/2009 : 11:27:31
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| The USD is definitely strenghtening and this is depressing metals... |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1612 Posts |
Posted - 10/27/2009 : 13:31:35
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A 3% correction does not imply a mid-term change in trend. Hedge fund selling/profit taking is very typical during the end of October as they close out their book for their fiscal year. If there is to be a real trend change, we shall have to wait and see what worldwide markets and the USD do in November. 
USD strength this week can be attributed to the massive treasury offerings for which foreign nationals (still buying treasuries) must convert from their currency to the USD to buy them. |
Edited by - Country on 10/27/2009 14:05:46 |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 10/28/2009 : 00:05:55
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
A 3% correction does not imply a mid-term change in trend. Hedge fund selling/profit taking is very typical during the end of October as they close out their book for their fiscal year. If there is to be a real trend change, we shall have to wait and see what worldwide markets and the USD do in November.
USD strength this week can be attributed to the massive treasury offerings for which foreign nationals (still buying treasuries) must convert from their currency to the USD to buy them.
Fact- The mid term IS changing and it is aligning with the long term trend of the Dow Theory. Wait and see what happens strategy does not allow one to go back and place trades after the fact. Nor does explaining anything after the fact with shallow canned media chirps.
USD strength can be excused away with any number of after the fact media story lines but that does not change what it is. In any event, without the Fed purchasing over half the US debt, when could a record debt offering be a positive? This is part of the root cause for why it will get destroyed later, but artificially acts like a shot of epinephrine to keep the system alive in the short run (after all that's all any politician cares about, even if it makes a system that was failing even worse) Why would foreign nationals be stepping over each others toes to go carry trade negative by selling higher yielding currency in favor of piling into the USD zero interest rate policy offerings, while the US bloats its currency supply and exponentially expands its debt? |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 10/28/2009 : 00:15:26
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BTW- The remaining few hedge funds (there are far more pension, managed portfolio, and mutual fund assets) not only sell at the end of any given month or quarter but they also buy in order to dress up the books. To say the market falls at the end of every month with such rationale is perilous to one's wealth. Unless of course it is a convenient after the fact story/excuse.
Ah, so many times have people been in "profit taking" mode during historic October crashes that I wonder what the other half were doing- "Profit sharing"? |
Edited by - jonflyfish on 10/28/2009 00:19:05 |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 10/30/2009 : 15:31:35
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Today's media market recap report "Fair and balanced"-
Today the Dow resumed in Wall Street "profit taking".
Meanwhile, the other market participants were once again contributing from their "profit sharing" plans. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1612 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2009 : 09:23:26
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quote:
Originally posted by Country
A 3% correction does not imply a mid-term change in trend. Hedge fund selling/profit taking is very typical during the end of October as they close out their book for their fiscal year. If there is to be a real trend change, we shall have to wait and see what worldwide markets and the USD do in November.
USD strength this week can be attributed to the massive treasury offerings for which foreign nationals (still buying treasuries) must convert from their currency to the USD to buy them.
Hedge fund selling for the fiscal year ended in October. Treasury dollar manipulation to sell their Treasuries over for now.
It's November now. Let's all make some money from the long side.
GOLD - UP
SILVER - UP
OIL - UP
STOCK MARKET - UP
US DOLLAR - DOWN |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2009 : 10:08:52
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Country- It would seem that what you posted can be summed up as:
INFLATION- UP
But that's hardly a hedge fund phenomenon.
Invest in inflation. After all, it is the only thing guaranteed to go up. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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beauanderos
Penny Collector Member
USA
388 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2009 : 15:17:51
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| Well, regardless of the cause I appreciated the effect today, gold hung on to most of its gains and silver moved a little. |
Hoard now and hold on!
http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/ |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/03/2009 : 05:27:21
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Looks like hedge funds that went long yesterday will be part of the "profit sharing" plan today.
Cheers |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/03/2009 : 06:02:17
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| Do your own diligence or use your illusion. The choice is yours. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1612 Posts |
Posted - 11/04/2009 : 09:34:48
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quote:
Originally posted by jonflyfish
Looks like hedge funds that went long yesterday will be part of the "profit sharing" plan today.
Cheers
Geee Wiz. Looks like a hedge fund buying panic today.
Ya think maybe the worldwide LIQUIDITY, including Warren Buffett's CASH, will overcome all of our theories and push everything up commodity style. |
Edited by - Country on 11/04/2009 09:41:01 |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/04/2009 : 10:18:05
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| Hedge fund frenzy for a daily nominal gain as they struggle with any real gains as they watch gold make all time highs but the Dow..... |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/04/2009 : 12:02:34
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| Now of course, I also correctly said what I said before yesterday's market session. Gold was up tremendously and the Dow was off slightly, which is even worse but will become more commonplace. Investors are in the initial stages of trying to exchange out of FRN's to avoid loss of purchasing power. Once they realize that the alternatives that they chose still lost purchasing power, the precious metals space will get crowded very fast and equities will get tanked. |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/04/2009 : 13:31:46
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Fed speak not good. Dove or Hawk, they are not speaking plainly. Radical base money expansion followed by stumbling and bumbling by the fed is quite unnerving.
Equities do not like uncertainty. OOps |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/04/2009 : 15:05:53
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Market recap-
Ehem,
Institutions liquidated positions all afternoon (profit taking), which left equities flat (profit sharing) among another session of lost purchasing power (fiat phenomenon) |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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silverhalide
Penny Sorter Member
76 Posts |
Posted - 11/05/2009 : 19:17:17
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| Even though gold prices continue to forge on the upside one thing looks apparent the risk trade seems to have a much narrower breadth as fewer small cap resource stocks continue to surge higher. |
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jonflyfish
Penny Hoarding Member
USA
548 Posts |
Posted - 11/19/2009 : 12:08:41
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| Perhaps the worst of all scenarios is now beginning....Equities sell-off nominally in tandem with a flight to PM's... |
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; second is war. Both bring a temporary (and false) prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunities. |
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Country
1000+ Penny Miser Member
USA
1612 Posts |
Posted - 11/19/2009 : 14:33:41
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No equity selloff this year. Money managers will buy the dips right until the end of the year. Today is just minor profit taking in a worldwide BULL worldwide stock market. However, next year will be interesting.
It's nice that the fear trade money went to GOLD and SILVER, instead of USD treasuries. |
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Equities selloff
