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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member


Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 05/10/2008 :  23:10:52  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
I have started detailed counts on Canadian nickels to try to figure out the effects of new minting of steel nickels plus the effects of hoarding/alloy recovery program.

I am using as a base the results of my survey late last year. At that time, based on about 500 rolls, I found the percentage of .999 Ni to be 21.2%, the percentage of cupronickel to be 52.9%, and the observed percentage of 2007 steelies to be 4.96%

I have noticed a lot of 2007s this year, so it may be that the Mint added another slug of 2007s since November (where my last numbers were measured)

My hypothesis is that some .999 Ni have been removed from circulation (x1). Some CuNi have been removed from circulation (x2). Some more 2007s have been added to circulation (x3). And some 2008s have been added to circulation (x4). x1, x2, x3, and x4 are found from observations of the numbers of .999 Ni (A), CuNi (B), numbers of 2007s (C) and the observed number of 2008s (D) using a system of four equations.

My current observations which are based on a very small sample (80 rolls from six different banks) are

.999 Ni (15.56%)
Cu Ni (42.28%)
2007s (13.72%)
2008s (3.53%)

If these numbers hold (and I suspect the .999 Ni will rise as I ended up with a bunch of pre-sorted rolls from one normally reliable bank), the numbers suggest

--the Mint has added 2008s equivalent to 3% of previous circulation so far (probably more will be added as the year progresses)

the Mint added another slug of 2007s at the end of last year equivalent to 6.5% of all nickels in circulation, more than doubling the number of 2007s in circulation as of last November. This may be to make up for . . .

. . . nearly 1/3 of circulating CuNi nickels have been removed from circulation. Folks, this is more than hoarders would take out, as most hoarders are not big on cupronickel.

. . . over 1/3 of circulating .999 Ni have been removed from circulation (again, this number will probably moderate somewhat). Again, this is much more than hoarders would have taken out. I think the Mint has become active in removing nickels from circulation.

THese numbers will improve as more rolls are counted.

Not all who wander are lost.

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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 05/13/2008 :  21:28:42  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
Okay, so nothing a few boxes of nickels from the Bank that Time Forgot can't solve. I have started sorting the first box and the numbers are improved somewhat.

From a total of 140 rolls from 9 banks,

observed
.999 Ni (16.21%)
CuNi (45.05%)
2007 (11.3%)
2008 (2.74%)

Solving the equations as described above suggests

35.2% of the pre-existing .999 Ni have been removed from the general population since November.

27.8% of pre-existing CuNi have been removed since November.

The number of 2007s in circulation has increased by 93% since November.

The number of 2008s added was 2.3% of the total population as of November.

To put these numbers into perspective, imagine that the total number of circulating nickels last November was 1000. Of those, 212 were .999 Ni, 529 were CuNi, and the rest were steel. 50 of those were 2007s.

Since November, 75 .999 Ni have been removed, 147 CuNi have been removed, 46 2007s have been added, and 23 2008s have entered circulation. The total number of nickels in circulation is now 847, of which 137 are .999 Ni, 382 are CuNi, and the remaining 326 are steel, of which 96 are dated 2007 and 23 are 2008. I don't know how many more 2008s they plan to make this year, but I would expect them to try to push the circulation up to 1000 again. Of course, they will continue to remove the Ni and CuNi coins through the remainder of the year.

Not all who wander are lost.
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Ardent Listener
Administrator



USA
4841 Posts

Posted - 05/14/2008 :  08:32:29  Show Profile Send Ardent Listener a Private Message
Wow! You presented an excellent report on the Canadian nickel stituation. This is something I hope all here take the time to read. It shows how there are those who have the power to quickly alter the makeup of coins in circulation on a massive scale.

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Think positive.
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 05/16/2008 :  20:12:06  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
I have done some more counting, but am falling way behind my acquisition program. Up to 214 rolls from 14 different banks in Toronto and Mississauga. The numbers have improved but only because I have been focussing on the good banks, which kind of makes further analysis unreliable. I am still seeing that 25-30% of pure nickels and a similar percentage of CuNi have been removed, which still suggests a 4-6 month window before the good nickels are all but gone.

Driving through some of the good neighbourhoods in Toronto (follow O'Connor through Donlands, Greenwood, Coxwell, and down to the Danforth). There is an entire ocean of good coin in those houses, and my sampling is like dipping a few thimbles into it and trying to figure out where they are going.

Not all who wander are lost.
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 05/21/2008 :  22:16:57  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
After 351 rolls, the numbers suggest

29.5 % of .999 Ni have been removed since November 2007
30.8% of CuNi have been removed.
The number of 2007s have doubled.
The number of 2008s released are about 2.8% of the pre-existing population.

I find these numbers fairly satisfying--intuitively I would expect the relative amounts of pure Ni and CuNi removed to be the same as the main actors are the coin sorters (acting for the Mint). These numbers are weighted by number of rolls counted.

If I weight the counts by banks (i.e. weight all the banks sampled the same to remove the effect of buying boxes of rolls from banks where the numbers are good), then

Ni removed - 31.2%
CuNi removed - 34.0%
2007s added - 96.6%
2008s added - 2.8% (relative to entire population)

Some banks had very few rolls, so their samples may not be representative.

Not all who wander are lost.
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Steiner
Penny Collector Member



Canada
278 Posts

Posted - 05/24/2008 :  22:51:01  Show Profile Send Steiner a Private Message
I am following along and enjoying your reports.

Keep up the good work.

Steiner

Steiner
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 05/28/2008 :  20:53:43  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
Up to 525 rolls sorted in this sample. The numbers still suggest about 1/3 Ni and CuNi removed, so I will soon go back to only reporting on pure nickel recovered (but I am still keeping CuNi as well). It will be faster because the main time drag is sorting out the 2007s and 2008s and counting them.

It is also getting difficult to decide what to do with all the Mint rolls. Just in the last few days, every bank I have gone to has had at best a few CWR and the rest are fresh 2008s from the Mint. Some of the tellers have been really confused saying they always have plenty of CWR, but today they all seem to be gone and several new boxes of brand new nickels have arrived. I suspect this is just part of a monthly (?) cycle of delivery, but the pickup of old coin rolls and boxes could be telling. I may have to wait a while for them to "recharge".

The other issue is the recent appearance of free coin-counting machines in some branches of TD bank. One of these, at the Coxwell/Danforth area, is a bank that routinely gives out rolls counting 22% pure Ni, the highest in the general area. Now customers are putting the nickels into the machine (although somebody I know just put over 5,000 steel nickels in the machine in the past week). This is alarming not only for the recovery of additional coin but it is likely a signal that my first (optimistic) prediction that the alloy-recovery program (ARP) would stop when the percentage of real coins fell to about 15% was overly optimistic. With enough of these coin-counters in place, the ARP will never end.

As others have pointed out, the only thing left to do is to acquire as many as possible as soon as possible. Get to know your neighbours, offer to buy their old coins.

I'm taking the night off. I'm sick of sorting right now.

Not all who wander are lost.
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 06/12/2008 :  22:29:53  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
This latest project is almost complete--I only have about a box and a half to go through.

696 rolls from 29 different branches (not counting rolls that came directly from the Mint).

If I ignore the Mint rolls, then the averages are:

Ni: 18.4%
CuNi: 43.1%
2007: 11.6%
2008: 2.8%

With the Mint rolls (after all, they are part of the overall population)

Ni: 15.9%
CuNi: 37.2%
2007: 17.5%
2008: 8.0%

Those last two numbers are huge. And 2008 is not even half over yet.

The Mint is cranking out new nickels in a big way to make for the ones they are removing from circulation.

I calculate that approximately 30% of circulating Ni and CuNi have been removed from circulation since November.

Another conclusion I can draw is that my original hypothesis that the distribution of nickels is controlled by demographics is incomplete. In mapping the results it seems that both demographics of the local residents and the character of local commercial development determine how many pure-Ni nickels we find. Some neighbourhoods with excellent demographics are swamped by new nickels, and these are mainly areas where "big box" commerce has been added. The target demographics remains older neighbourhoods where people have been living in the same houses for decades, however you should also add those areas where the commerce is carried out in small store fronts (usually with apartments on top). The reason for this may be that for results from a bank to be good over a period of time (samples collected at different times) the average circulating nickels have to be pretty good. Small storefronts in older neighbourhoods are the best means of coaxing a small stream of nickels from all those jars in those old houses. Added to that you get the bonus of the occasional lucky strike when someone dumps an old population of nickels at the local bank. Big box stores encourage people to use credit cards or debit, and the coins stay in the jar. Who wants to lug a bunch of coins across a parking lot the size of a football field. You may get lucky and pick up an old collection someone drops off, but the only way for you to get them is to either be camping out at the bank or to have friendly tellers. The rest of the time the nickels will mainly be new.

Not all who wander are lost.
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Nickelmeister
Penny Hoarding Member



Canada
588 Posts

Posted - 06/24/2008 :  23:29:31  Show Profile Send Nickelmeister a Private Message
This is my first post ever. I have just been introduced to this "hobby" and have sorted 4 boxes (8,000) Canadian nickels so far. The percentages were as follows:

45.94% steel
29.38% CuNi
22.75% .999 Ni
0.13% "kings"
1.81% US

www.WinnipegGoldBuyer.com

Standing offer for sale of quality, second-hand solid gold jewellery:

<$100 USD worth - spot +25%, plus actual shipping
$101-500 worth - spot +20%, plus actual shipping
$501-1,000 worth - spot +15%, plus actual shipping
$1,001+ worth - spot +10%, plus actual shipping

Edited by - Nickelmeister on 06/24/2008 23:30:16
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jadedragon
Administrator



Canada
3788 Posts

Posted - 07/16/2008 :  20:02:18  Show Profile Send jadedragon a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Nickelmeister

This is my first post ever. I have just been introduced to this "hobby" and have sorted 4 boxes (8,000) Canadian nickels so far. The percentages were as follows:

45.94% steel
29.38% CuNi
22.75% .999 Ni
0.13% "kings"
1.81% US



You're in Manatoba right? Seems to be less infultration of US coin there (distance to border, fewer tourists etc?). Your Ni #'s are very strong still. Maybe you can sort enough to drop those Ni numbers LOL.

Also check out my thread on CuNi coins after 2000. The info out on the net (RCM site, wikipedia, and my coin book) is all wrong. There is a lot of CuNi after the steel nickels were introduced in 2000. If there is no "P for plated" or logo mint mark you are holding a CuNi coin.

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog
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n/a
deleted



6 Posts

Posted - 07/17/2008 :  23:29:23  Show Profile Send n/a a Private Message
I'm getting pretty low Ni numbers in West end of Ottawa: Nepean and Kanata, 3 RBCs and 1 TD.

I've done 53 rolls by hand, 10 rolls each pickup, but one was 13. Best batch of 10 rolls was 15% Ni

Here are my numbers. 1 10 roll batch had 43% US CuNi so that skews the US #:

Ni King - (1) 0.05% (1950)
Ni 1967 - (3) 0.15%
Ni - 11.74%
CuNi - 31.05%
US CuNi - 10.19% (2.56% without the batch)
Steel - 45.89%
Other - (1 Peso) 0.05%
Missing - (short rolls) 19 - 0.89%


I'm keeping the CuNi for now at least. So that's about a 50% keep, 50% dump ratio. I also bought a box of $100 and realized later they are all un-circulated 2008s. Steel of course.

I live in Quebec in the start of the rural areas, so perhaps I should check my local banks. Not many on the rural side though and the gas money isn't worth driving there.

Ni saved is Ni earned.

Edited by - n/a on 07/18/2008 00:45:40
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jadedragon
Administrator



Canada
3788 Posts

Posted - 07/18/2008 :  11:21:59  Show Profile Send jadedragon a Private Message
Welcome Mike. You might as well keep the CuNi since the mint is pulling it out agressively. Your getting a lot of short rolls - I suggest making up a roll of 40 coins (maybe steel coins) as a sample for your pocket. Just compare the length of the rolls you buy with the sample roll before you leave the teller.

Your ratios are in line with mine generally when you remove the batch of US you found (untypical to get that many together though I have found complete US rolls). Good luck :) If you build up a quantity large enough to justify shipping be sure to offer it here on the board in our buy sell trade section. Save ebay fees that way.

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog
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jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
128 Posts

Posted - 10/09/2008 :  13:34:40  Show Profile Send jin.coy a Private Message
After reading the mickeyman reports I started keeping track of how many .999 Ni I find in my sort.

Goal: to collect C$100 .999 Ni at face value.

Here is the report by days:
Day 1 11 Rolls ... 65 Ni
Day 2 3 Rolls ... 42 Ni
Day 3 37 Rolls ... 190 Ni
Day 4 30 Rolls ... 142 Ni
Day 5 20 Rolls ... 100 Ni
Day 6 42 Rolls ... 262 Ni
Day 7 105 Rolls ... 473 Ni
Day 8 71 Rolls ... 261 Ni
Day 9 100 Rolls ... 470 Ni

Total nickel sorted : 419 Rolls (16,760 coins = C$838) gave me 2005 .999 Ni (C$100) at a rate of 11.96%

Note:
1)I have not included in these numbers the new rolls (year 2008) or CDI rolls.
2) I got around %1.75 in USD coins.
3) I have picked rolls only on my way to work no extra trips to the bank, I work close to financial district where there are at least 10 branches on my way to work.
4) I got at least one coin from the following years 23,24,27,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,39,40,41,42,44,47,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60
5) Last but not least it was fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunnnnnnnnn!!!!
Good luck to you all!

Edited by - jin.coy on 10/09/2008 13:42:37
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jadedragon
Administrator



Canada
3788 Posts

Posted - 10/09/2008 :  13:53:32  Show Profile Send jadedragon a Private Message
Wow jin! That is WAY more early kings then I've ever seen - and I've sorted way more coins then you reported sorting. Better sort a few more to make your box and set those listed dates aside because they have collector value.

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog
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jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
128 Posts

Posted - 10/09/2008 :  14:42:11  Show Profile Send jin.coy a Private Message
He he he! Lucky me!

I hope the new guys here are realizing that this is pure luck.
Sometime you get none sometime you get two, sometime you get only steels.

Is not like you flip $100 ten times and you end up with a full collection of nickels from 1922 to 2008.


The important number is 11.96% in CRW, as of today in Toronto.

Edited by - jin.coy on 10/09/2008 15:09:50
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jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
128 Posts

Posted - 10/21/2008 :  22:02:11  Show Profile Send jin.coy a Private Message
I did sort another box of nickels.

$100 in CWR (50 Rolls) gave me ~10% .999 Ni
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 10/27/2008 :  14:22:31  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
Am thinking of running another program to see what's been pulled out. It's become a lot harder to find nickels. The most difficult problem is how to account for the CDI and new rolls. They have become a major part of the picture, but when we go to the bank we try to avoid them, so our counts are biased rather than an accurate representation of the real population of nickels. And it's too heart-breaking to go through those CDI rolls to find the number of 2008s (to assess their rate of production).

Not all who wander are lost.
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 11/03/2008 :  21:24:15  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
ten rolls from each of twelve different banks. Counting new rolls from the mint and CDI rolls, 2008 nickels appear running at nearly 15% of the total in circulation, which is astonishing to me.

So far, there is very little change in the percentage of pure Ni compared to early summer. There is a fairly major drop in the fraction made of cupronickel, which mostly accomodates the increase of 2008s from 6% to nearly 15%. Still a pretty small sample though.

Not all who wander are lost.
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jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
128 Posts

Posted - 11/06/2008 :  10:07:07  Show Profile Send jin.coy a Private Message
4 banks $100 in CWR(50 Rolls) I got 10% in .999 Ni
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jin.coy
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
128 Posts

Posted - 11/06/2008 :  12:53:27  Show Profile Send jin.coy a Private Message
Hi mickeyman,

I am also trying to figure out a way to see how much .999 Ni is out there.
Lately I noticed that is getting harder to find CWR if I ask more than 10 rolls($20),usually the teller did not even bother checking what they have on their drawer, they will go straight to the head teller/or in the back(vault) asking for rolls; and from the vault I see either CDI or fresh minted rolls; this way I end up with a lot of steels.
If I ask/order for a box the bank will gladly give me, but always was a CDI or 2008 box.

So I started to ask for less change e.g. $10 and sometimes I see the teller in front of me asking the other tellers if the have one or two extra rolls of nickels, this way they can fulfill my request.

I guess the Recovery Alloy Program is working pretty well, I think this is VERY BAD! Two months back when I started this activity I used to get 15%-18% on CWR and now I get 10%. If I have to take into account all the CDI and fresh minted steels my number are way under 5%.



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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 11/13/2008 :  21:12:37  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
My numbers this time around have been better than yours, but I have been staying with banks mainly in older neighbourhoods. I found that in the financial district I mostly got brand new nickels so I stopped going there. The Danforth is good, as well as parts of Rexdale, Leaside, West Hill, the older parts of Mississauga, parts of Yonge St., but mainly the parts that used to be towns before Toronto amalgamated. I haven't found any change over the three months I was in Africa except for the stunning increase in 2008s. Even counting those I am averaging above 17% Ni.

Not all who wander are lost.
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jadedragon
Administrator



Canada
3788 Posts

Posted - 11/19/2008 :  18:39:43  Show Profile Send jadedragon a Private Message
I visited the RCM in Winnipeg last week. Chatting with an employee I learned the Alloy Recovery Program is in full swing - and not just for Ni and CuNi Nickels but for Ni Dimes and Quarters. Expect nothing older then 2000/01 in your change soon. They do it right in the Mint building, plus contract out to CDI in other cities (Vancouver for sure).

Since the Mint can buy and remove older coins by replacing them with cheaper steel coins, they do not need the base metal to be worth more then the face value of the coin to make money. You and I have to pay full face to get a Ni coin, but the Mint makes thier own money!

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw.
Why Copper Bullion ~~~ Interview with Silver Bullion Producer Market Harmony
Passive Income blog
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 11/24/2008 :  13:33:23  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
It is my sad duty to inform you that they have already done an excellent job on the dimes and quarters. Already before the snows melted near the beginning of the year, typical rolls of dimes and quarters at the bank ran <15% Ni, whereas at the beginning of the ARP they ran >50%. Dimes and quarters circulate well, so they are easier to pick up. What may have happened with nickels is that there are a couple of layers in the economy, and they have swept up the nickels from the circulating part of the economy, but cannot get the nickels in people's coffee cans. These circulate from neighbourhood bank to local businesses and back to people's coffee cans. The only way for the Mint to intercept these is to send around their armored cars and ask for each bank to bring up their old coin, save any customer-wrapped coin, and dispense new coin. The staff at the individual banks won't go for it.

Not all who wander are lost.
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 11/24/2008 :  13:34:35  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
Forgot to ask you legacypac--any word of replacing steel coins with something cheaper? :)

Not all who wander are lost.
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mickeyman
Penny Pincher Member



Canada
243 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2009 :  16:48:15  Show Profile Send mickeyman a Private Message
Completed latest sampling programme--680 rolls from 31 banks, collected over the last two and a half months (ending last night with the first recovery of the first 2009). I counted all rolls, including the brand new ones from the Mint and the all-steel rolls from CDI, so that I would have the most complete picture of the number of all types of nickels in general circulation.

2008s make up 21.17% of all nickels in circulation (or at least active circulation).
To get that many out there they had to stamp out a number equal to 26% of all nickels in active circulation prior to 2008 (although the number in active circulation may well be a fairly small subset of the total number of nickels out there.

Pure nickel: 14.27%

Cupronickel: 34.08%

Both of these numbers are lower than the results obtained last July (17.4% and 42.4% respectively). But they are both in agreement with numbers that did not decline but which were influenced purely by the flood of 2008s (increasing from 3.5% in July).

It looks like the Mint's alloy recovery program was not recovering nickels in the second half of last year. Perhaps they are counting on dilution to do the trick.

Alternatively, maybe enough people have heard of CDI's coin intakes (free coin-counting) on the Danforth at Woodington (one block east of Coxwell) and on Scarlett one block north of Eglinton (West) that the amount of steel and zinc pouring in has caused them to think the job is done. Such is my dream. (Hopefully they don't visit this site).

Not all who wander are lost.
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fasTTcar
Penny Hoarding Member



Canada
573 Posts

Posted - 02/17/2009 :  19:54:37  Show Profile Send fasTTcar a Private Message
Hey Mickeyman.

I do not think that the mint will drop the alloy recovery program for sometime. The machinery is installed at CDI, costs virtually nothing to run now, and still removes whatever is still in circulation that has a base metal value.

The reason that all new coins have a mint mark of P or the RCM logo directly under the bust is for identification purposes by the optical reader. No mark, it gets pulled. Even the new pennies have them.

I have no doubt that the mint is competing with us for the good stuff over the long term. Get yours while you can.

Edit to add - BTW, thanks for all your research work.

www.londongoldbuyer.com

Edited by - fasTTcar on 02/17/2009 19:55:50
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