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PennyPauper
Penny Collector Member



USA
395 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2010 :  11:28:01  Show Profile Send PennyPauper a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by daviscfad

i would not pay nothing for it. B.c i am not going to buy it. if i found one i would keep it yes. but as far as paying crazy money for it NO. if it was selling for a dollar noone would want it. See the problem with this coin is most people think the Denver mint forgot to put a D on the die. That is not so. It was just polished off meaning it was originally there. I dont buy into the NO FG cents either. My opinion was not always this way on this coin but as i received knowledge about it I found out it was neither a mint error or a variety. The biggest thing that bugs me is everyone sells it as if it were a Philly mint. even the albums leave you and empty spot for it. oh well thats JMO on it. I guess i just feel I like many others have been lied to on what it actually is, b/c most people you talk to dont even know its the affects on an over polished die.


I never heard it put quite like that.I think you make sense.Sometimes its easy to get caught up in the market activity and follow the pack.But when you analyse things it leads you down a different path.

Available again! $100 of Copper Lincoln Memorials for $145 shipped.
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brian0918
Penny Collector Member



USA
315 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2010 :  12:08:41  Show Profile  Send brian0918 an AOL message Send brian0918 a Private Message
Market Harmony: I think the best way to calculate the chances of finding it in circulation would be to compare the mintage numbers to the actual numbers from your own experience. Then fit a curve to the data to estimate the percentages for the ones you have not yet found in circulation. Maybe that is what you meant by the "percentages" you assign - but it seems like the easiest way to factor in all the unknowns.

"The man who speaks to you of sacrifice, speaks of slaves and masters. And intends to be the master." -- Ayn Rand

Searched: $2230 Nickels; Liberty: 1; Buffalo: 4; War: 20; 2009: 2; 2010D: 8

Edited by - brian0918 on 07/03/2010 12:10:00
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Flbandit
Penny Hoarding Member



USA
851 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2010 :  15:27:43  Show Profile Send Flbandit a Private Message
I still need 5, the usual suspects.

Are you throwing that out?
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Roadrunner
Penny Collector Member



USA
413 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2010 :  16:55:24  Show Profile Send Roadrunner a Private Message
I have probably 25 to go.
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
2408 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2010 :  22:19:26  Show Profile Send beauanderos a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by dakota1955

down to 3 the 09-svdb 22-p and 14-d

Dakota... that's quite an accomplishment! How many years/what amount of cents did you have to sift to get to this point?

Hoard now and hold on!

http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
2408 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2010 :  22:47:24  Show Profile Send beauanderos a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony

I just don't want folks to get the illusion that their collection is worth some dollar value that it really isn't. We both are on the same track about the thrill of the find, sentimentality of the collection, and feeling of a job well done when a collection is looked upon. If someone was able to assemble a complete collection from searching, then that would be amazing!!! It would be a unique thing... not done for many many years. But if they were doing today it to make money on it, then they are fooling themselves.

Sure, now that I need it I can't find it... but if memory serves me not too long ago, in one of the coin mags I subscribe to, I noticed someone selling Lincoln Wheat sets 1940 - 1958 for only $6.25 apiece. For all the work one has to do just to complete one of these it seems like it would be worth more, but it ain't

Hoard now and hold on!

http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/
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daviscfad
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1664 Posts

Posted - 07/03/2010 :  23:23:05  Show Profile Send daviscfad a Private Message
Most of the ones i need to finish up are kinda cheap. Guess i need to go on and do it huh.
09s-vdb
1910-s
1912-s
1914-s
1915-s
1924-d
1926-s
1933-d

Inquiring minds want to know
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PennyPauper
Penny Collector Member



USA
395 Posts

Posted - 07/04/2010 :  00:00:42  Show Profile Send PennyPauper a Private Message
13 to go!
09s and 09s vdb
10s 11s
12d 12s
14d 14s
22d 24d 26s
30s 31s
I found all the rest from sorting except the 7 I bought
11d,15d,17s,25d,26d,27s,28s
I still have a few misc.containers to sort.
I didn't think it would be so much work!

Available again! $100 of Copper Lincoln Memorials for $145 shipped.
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bman
Penny Collector Member



USA
425 Posts

Posted - 07/04/2010 :  21:05:23  Show Profile Send bman a Private Message
My set is in a Dansco album and it's complete except for the 1922 no D but I refuse to pay for it. I put a blank planchet in that hole.

check out my coins for sale on ecrater : http://bmanscoinsforsale.ecrater.com/
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
2408 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  01:02:57  Show Profile Send beauanderos a Private Message
after I actually looked at Uthminsta's list I realized there's alot more that I need... I'm still 22 away from complete. But that just adds to the fun of the search. If it was easy, it wouldn't feel like much of an accomplishment to complete one

Hoard now and hold on!

http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/
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dakota1955
1000+ Penny Miser Member



2212 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  07:33:33  Show Profile  Send dakota1955 a Yahoo! Message Send dakota1955 a Private Message
beauanderos I have been saving coins off and on for over 30 years mostly off.
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Roadrunner
Penny Collector Member



USA
413 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  09:00:59  Show Profile Send Roadrunner a Private Message
I had a dream last night that I scored an 11-S in easily-readable date, mintmark, and words condition. Oh, when I woke up...
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1274 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  10:14:03  Show Profile Send Market Harmony a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by brian0918

Market Harmony: I think the best way to calculate the chances of finding it in circulation would be to compare the mintage numbers to the actual numbers from your own experience. Then fit a curve to the data to estimate the percentages for the ones you have not yet found in circulation. Maybe that is what you meant by the "percentages" you assign - but it seems like the easiest way to factor in all the unknowns.



This will not give you sufficient estimation of the possible remaining dates/mints in circulation. What you are referring to is sampling. In order for your idea to work, you would have to get a large enough sample of circulating coin that would represent, accurately enough, the potential for repeatable results. The fact is that there are too many cents in circulation for anyone to accurately gauge the potential of finding a certain date.

From 1909 to 2007, there are about 448 BILLION cents minted. Just to get a 10% sample size, you would need to acquire 44.8 Billion cents... that's 448 million dollars worth of cents. And then you would need to catalog your findings.

The simplest way to calculate an estimation of remaining dates/mints in circulation is to start from the mintage figures for each year and mint, estimate a declining percentage (rate of reduction per year) and then calculate the current population based on these estimations.

That is where the "art" of the estimation has to come into play. Some years and types will be pulled out faster than others and you need to tweak the rate of reduction to compensate. Take, for example, steel cents. There rate of reduction is much higher than the year preceding or following 1943. And the same goes for key dates. These coins have a higher rate of reduction.

To compare my own findings will not correspond with actual mintage figures in any way. The distribution of cents was not universal across the country. Nor would my findings of someone dumping a huge wheat collection accurately portray the actual circulating coins. And, I can in no way come close to sorting and cataloging $448 million dollars worth of cents.

What my estimation spreadsheet gives is just that... an estimation of the remaining dates/mints still in circulation somewhere out there. And anyone can calculate the odds of find the one remaining 1909-S VDB from a population of 221,000,000,000 (the total remaining cents in circulation, using figures up to 2007)

I do not yet have the mintage figures for 2008 or 2009... that would only make the find all the more amazing.

goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org

Edited by - Market Harmony on 07/05/2010 10:21:12
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uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1872 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  10:26:59  Show Profile Send uthminsta a Private Message
Michael
So how well are the figures from the pre-40 reporting thread holding up to your calculations? There seems to be an awfully high reporting of 1909 plain...

from usmint.gov
2008P 2.5696 billion
2008D 2.8496 billion
2009P 1.106 billion
2009D 1.248 billion
But I bet it will still be tricky to estimate the rate at which people are pulling the 2009 types, because of the different design.

Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1274 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  10:29:52  Show Profile Send Market Harmony a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by uthminsta

Michael
So how well are the figures from the pre-40 reporting thread holding up to your calculations? There seems to be an awfully high reporting of 1909 plain...

from usmint.gov
2008P 2.5696 billion
2008D 2.8496 billion
2009P 1.106 billion
2009D 1.248 billion
But I bet it will still be tricky to estimate the rate at which people are pulling the 2009 types, because of the different design.



Thanks for those mintage figures. The spreadsheet shows that there are 140,431 1909 plain remaining in circulation.

goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1274 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  10:57:22  Show Profile Send Market Harmony a Private Message
For those interested in the spreadsheet to which I refer, I am now hosting the PDF (printable) file on my website. Feel free to click: You must be logged in to see this link.

You might need to print it out and use a magnifying glass if your eyes are tired from the most recent sort (small print)

goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
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uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1872 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  12:19:51  Show Profile Send uthminsta a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by Market Harmony a population of 221,000,000,000 (the total remaining cents in circulation, using figures up to 2007)

About half of what was minted is estimated to still be in circulation? I didn't know that. Also, what information did you use to come up with the approximates of 1982 copper and zinc? This is all fascinating. PM sent too.

Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
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uthminsta
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1872 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  12:45:57  Show Profile Send uthminsta a Private Message
Some bad news for me, according to your figures. Of the 11 coins I am still missing, the most populous would be the 1913S, with 15,094 allegedly still in circulation. But using that figure, and the 221 billion estimated to be in the circulation "pool," I would have a 3.4% chance of finding one... if I went through FIFTY bags.....................time to get a Ryedale. haha!

Come to the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
2408 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  23:43:14  Show Profile Send beauanderos a Private Message
and at my present rate of sorting ($625 a week) I will find that one 1909s VDB in a mere 68 thousand years... proving my thesis that vampires have the best Lincoln cent collections. Now where did I put that vial of youth elixir??

Hoard now and hold on!

http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/
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beauanderos
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
2408 Posts

Posted - 07/05/2010 :  23:45:07  Show Profile Send beauanderos a Private Message
except for the fact that, no matter how much I could gear up... I would always be researching the same cents confined to my Fed District 12. Grrrh

Hoard now and hold on!

http://coppermillions.blogspot.com/
http://wherewillyoubein2012.blogspot.com/
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JJM
Penny Sorter Member



71 Posts

Posted - 07/06/2010 :  12:36:48  Show Profile Send JJM a Private Message
I need the hardest two, three if you count the '22 plain, and probably always will. It's unlikely I'll ever finish it, outside of a lucky estate auction score, as I'm too cheap to pay market price on the '09S VDB. If I ever find a '22 plain, I'd sell it, as I have no desire to own that coin. I have dupes of a lot of the semi-keys, one of these days (weeks/months/years) I'll throw 'em up in the classifieds & see if anyone wants to trade for silver...
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TheJonasCollegeFund
Penny Collector Member



USA
381 Posts

Posted - 07/12/2010 :  23:00:13  Show Profile Send TheJonasCollegeFund a Private Message
So if you run into a very poor grade 1914d....so poor it's still hard to tell for sure what it is even with your loupe. Do you send it off to be graded or is it not worth it? If it is a 1914d....it still has a little worth? or not?

MD Totals: Started Aug16th.(Updated Sept10th) 819 clad/cu coins/$41.13
Quarters-78
Dimes-122+1 silver roosie (1957)
Nickels-81 (56d,53d)
Copper Pennies-147
Zinc Pennies-386
Wheats-5 (36,36,46,46d,50d)
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1274 Posts

Posted - 07/12/2010 :  23:21:39  Show Profile Send Market Harmony a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by TheJonasCollegeFund

So if you run into a very poor grade 1914d....so poor it's still hard to tell for sure what it is even with your loupe. Do you send it off to be graded or is it not worth it? If it is a 1914d....it still has a little worth? or not?



An elderly man showed me some coins this past weekend that he was looking to sell. Among some coins, he had a 1911-S and a 1914-D. The 11-S was in bad shape and had been cleaned. He was adamant that it was worth $50. I offered $10, hoping that I could resell it for $13. He said that I was trying to steal it from him. Then he showed me a 1914-D that was so beaten up and ugly that it looked to have been scrubbed with a brillo pad, gone through the digestive tract of a dog, cleaned again, and then used as a slug to level a table. But, you could at least see the date and MM. A coin like that would never grade, and it would be a waste of time and money to try to do so. I didn't even offer a price on the coin. To me, it was worthless even though it was a key date. The guy claimed that it was worth $150.

What I'm saying, in other terms, is that it isn't worth having a coin sent to a TPG unless it is worth a good amount, or whether the grade which you feel it would grade has a big difference in price above or below the grade in question. Some say $300 is the limit, some say more, but my personal opinion is that the price paid and the market price of the coin matter the most. This, and I would never send a coin off to be graded unless it is in XF or better condition, or it was valued at $1000+ in VF.

A 1909-S VDB is worth sending off if the grade is F or better. A 1914-D wouldn't be worth sending off unless it is in XF.

These are my opinions, and I am sure that others may disagree.

goto the new and improved realcent: http://realcent.org
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TheJonasCollegeFund
Penny Collector Member



USA
381 Posts

Posted - 07/12/2010 :  23:32:40  Show Profile Send TheJonasCollegeFund a Private Message
But what is the difference between say slick worn coins versus bad beat up coins. Or even coins dug up out of the ground (environmental damage). Are all these regarded as the same...?

MD Totals: Started Aug16th.(Updated Sept10th) 819 clad/cu coins/$41.13
Quarters-78
Dimes-122+1 silver roosie (1957)
Nickels-81 (56d,53d)
Copper Pennies-147
Zinc Pennies-386
Wheats-5 (36,36,46,46d,50d)
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Market Harmony
1000+ Penny Miser Member



USA
1274 Posts

Posted - 07/13/2010 :  00:20:54  Show Profile Send Market Harmony a Private Message
quote:
Originally posted by TheJonasCollegeFund

But what is the difference between say slick worn coins versus bad beat up coins. Or even coins dug up out of the ground (environmental damage). Are all these regarded as the same...?



One is junk, the other is worthless junk

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